Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

17:00

Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap

Date 2026-01-17

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,397

Rain 62%

Winning Time 1m 40.99s (slow by 2.89s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Soames Forsyte (GB) Dylan Hogan · Michael Herrington	28/1	Won
2nd	Ernie's Valentine (GB) Phoebe Edwards · Ross Burdon	15/2	0.3
3rd	Forest Caper (GB) Cieren Fallon · David O'Meara	17/2	0.05
4th	Beaming Light (GB) Rowan Scott · David Loughnane	11/2	1.75
5th	Mercurius Power (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · Jessica Macey	16/1	0.1
6th	Terries Royale (GB) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	4/1	0.3
7th	Double Time (GB) Callum Hutchinson · Tim Vaughan	13/2	5.5
8th	Havana Touch (GB) Sean D Bowen · John Butler	50/1	1.25
9th	Miners Gamble (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	7/2F	1.5
10th	Al Hofzan (IRE) William Cox · Georgina Nicholls	9/1	4
11th	Love Your Work (IRE) Kieran O'Neill · Darryll Holland	12/1	.5
12th	Far Ahead (IRE) Ethan Tindall · Richard Fahey	50/1	10

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
12 (5)	Miners Gamble Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	124	v	608-45	59	84	60	6d	—	—	-10	7.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Record of 1-22 but he's been in fair form on AW last twice; not ruled out
5 (6)	Terries Royale Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	132	—	58306-	67	83	63	37d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-7	11	1.00/1	4/1 20%
On reduced mark and he's still unexposed on AW but others are more convincing
4 (8)	Double Time Bay J:Callum Hutchinson T:Tim Vaughan	J:Callum Hutchinson T:Tim Vaughan	134	ht	16146-	69	84	73	30d	—	—	+4	14.8	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Won at Kempton in October and he ran better than bare facts over C&D latest; in the mix
7 (4)	Al Hofzan Bay J:William Cox T:Georgina Nicholls	J:William Cox T:Georgina Nicholls	131	—	623-3	66	80	49	15d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-1	10.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Unexposed 4yo who ran well on his handicap debut at Wolverhampton; respected upped in trip
2 (1)	Forest Caper Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:David O'Meara	J:Cieren Fallon T:David O'Meara	135	h	32305-	70	82	54	20d	—	—	+2	11.1	2.00/1	8/1 11%
14-race maiden and he's been beaten at 5-1 or shorter on 11 occasions; others preferred
9 (12)	Beaming Light Bay J:Rowan Scott T:David Loughnane	J:Rowan Scott T:David Loughnane	130	e/s	73694-	65	86	64	33d	—	—	-2	7.2	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Often harms his chance but racing too freely but he's on a dangerous mark; not ruled out
3 (2)	Ernie's Valentine Grey J:Phoebe Edwards(7) T:Ross Burdon	J:Phoebe Edwards(7) T:Ross Burdon	134	—	2134-5	69	82	66	15d	—	—	-1	7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Seven-time AW winner whose last win was off 1lb lower; dangerous if he gets a good pace
1 (10)	Love Your Work Chestnut J:Kieran O'Neill T:Darryll Holland	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Darryll Holland	135	—	21710-	70	80	68	18d	—	—	+11	17.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
12-time AW winner who scored at Wolverhampton last month but he flopped there last time
11 (11)	Mercurius Power Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Jessica Macey	126	tp	69327-	61	82	71	29d	—	—	+4	9.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Now 1lb lower than for last win and has claims if he can rediscover his spark
6 (3)	Soames Forsyte Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	J:Dylan Hogan T:Michael Herrington	131	p	7907-8	66	81	67	15d	—	—	+1	5.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Triple course winner but he's lost his way and needs to turn things around
10 (7)	Havana Touch Grey J:Sean D Bowen T:John Butler	J:Sean D Bowen T:John Butler	128	—	51679-	63	83	76	37d	—	—	+4	7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
On workable mark but he's struggled in his last three runs and has plenty to prove
8 (9)	Far Ahead Bay J:Ethan Tindall(7) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ethan Tindall(7) T:Richard Fahey	130	—	9066-0	65	83	19	7d	—	—	+2	4.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Still lightly raced and mark is tumbling but he needs a big turnaround

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Miners Gamble	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Terries Royale	7/2	7/2	7/2	4/1	7/2
Double Time	13/2	7/1	7/1	7/1	7/1
Al Hofzan	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Forest Caper	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Beaming Light	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Ernie's Valentine	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Love Your Work	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Mercurius Power	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Soames Forsyte	28/1	25/1	25/1	28/1	25/1
Havana Touch	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
Far Ahead	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Love Your Work

17.7

OR: 5 Form: 11 Odds: 1.7

12/1

2nd

Double Time

14.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 7 Odds: 3.1

7/1

3rd

Forest Caper

11.1

OR: 5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 2.5

8/1

Terries Royale

OR: 4.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 5.2

4/1

Al Hofzan

10.1

OR: 4 Form: 3 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Mercurius Power

9.4

OR: 2.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Miners Gamble

7.5

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Beaming Light

7.2

OR: 3.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 2.5

8/1

Ernie's Valentine

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Havana Touch

OR: 3.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Soames Forsyte

5.1

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Far Ahead

4.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Forest Caper	70	82	54
Love Your Work	70	80	68
Double Time	69	84	73
Ernie's Valentine	69	82	66
Terries Royale	67	83	63
Al Hofzan	66	80	49
Soames Forsyte	66	81	67
Beaming Light	65	86	64
Far Ahead	65	83	19
Havana Touch	63	83	76
Mercurius Power	61	82	71
Miners Gamble	59	84	60

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Miners Gamble	6d ago	Quick return
Far Ahead	7d ago	Quick return
Al Hofzan	15d ago	Fit
Ernie's Valentine	15d ago	Fit
Soames Forsyte	15d ago	Fit
Love Your Work	18d ago	Fit
Forest Caper	20d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	29d ago	Fit
Double Time	30d ago	Fit
Beaming Light	33d ago	Fit
Terries Royale	37d ago	Fit
Havana Touch	37d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.