David Spencer 60th Birthday Cup Novices' Handicap Chase

Stratford

14:45

Date 2023-04-23

Distance 2m3f98y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Soft

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £3,512

Winning Time 4m 56.10s (slow by 24.10s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Line Of Descent (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill Jr · Warren Greatrex	4/1	Won
2nd	Post No Bills (IRE) Sean Bowen · Ryan Potter	100/30F	1.25
3rd	Miltiades (IRE) Richard Patrick · Henry Daly	8/1	4.5
4th	O'Grady's Boy (IRE) Tabitha Worsley · Gary Hanmer	40/1	11
5th	Coconut Tudor (IRE) Peter Kavanagh · John Mackie	16/1	12
6th	Supasunrise (IRE) Finn Lambert · Nigel Twiston-Davies	6/1	21

Non-Runners / Other

Status	Horse	SP
P.U.	Alghazaal (GB) Lilly Pinchin · Charlie Longsdon	12/1
P.U.	Blackcauseway (GB) Sam Twiston-Davies · Nigel Twiston-Davies	9/1
P.U.	Broadoak (GB) David Noonan · Fiona Shaw	17/2
P.U.	Conceal (IRE) Charlie Todd · Billy Aprahamian	16/1
P.U.	Hidalgo Conti (FR) Mr Charlie Case · Fiona Kehoe	18/1
P.U.	Peckinpah (IRE) Charlie Hammond · Rob Summers	28/1

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2	Post No Bills Bay J:Sean Bowen T:Ryan Potter	J:Sean Bowen T:Ryan Potter	163	—	522282	95	107	97	208d	—	—	+8	27	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Runner-up in four of last five races; likely player if returning from layoff in same form
5	Line Of Descent Bay J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Warren Greatrex	J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Warren Greatrex	160	t	722333	92	107	95	55d	—	—	+6	25.3	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Has form figures of 22333 since switched to chasing; dropped 2lb; holds solid claims
NR	Keplerian Bay J:Connor Brace T:Fergal Obrien	J:Connor Brace T:Fergal Obrien	161	t	44-5P4	93	105	83	54d	—	—	-1	15.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Interesting with improvement on the cards back down in distance; second chase attempt
10	Supasunrise Bay J:Finn Lambert(5) T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	J:Finn Lambert(5) T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	154	p	241385	86	107	83	30d	—	—	+5	16.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Opened his account at Huntingdon on Boxing Day; form dipped the last twice
3	Blackcauseway Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	162	t	3-2PP4	94	87	23	24d	—	—	+7	15.6	2.25/1	10 10%
Recorded his first chase completion last time; could go well off reduced mark
1	Miltiades Bay J:Richard Patrick T:Henry Daly	J:Richard Patrick T:Henry Daly	168	—	54-29P	100	-	-	42d	—	—	+6	15	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Remains to be seen whether his jumping holds up in first chase (faller in sole point)
13	Broadoak Bay J:David Noonan T:Fiona Shaw	J:David Noonan T:Fiona Shaw	142	—	-0P324	74	104	74	18d	—	—	+5	12.7	2.50/1	11 9%
Eight-race maiden; modest fourth last time; this is a deeper field
6	Conceal Chestnut J:Charlie Todd T:Billy Aprahamian	J:Charlie Todd T:Billy Aprahamian	159	p	-8136U	91	104	87	14d	—	—	+9	14.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Had no luck (bumped and unseated rider) back from a layoff last time
11	Alghazaal Chestnut J:Lilly Pinchin(3) T:Charlie Longsdon	J:Lilly Pinchin(3) T:Charlie Longsdon	153	tp	77-545	85	-	-	136d	—	—	+5	10.4	2.75/1	12 8%
New trip is a possible source of improvement, provided he takes well to fences
7	Coconut Tudor Bay J:Peter Kavanagh(5) T:John Mackie	J:Peter Kavanagh(5) T:John Mackie	159	—	98PP5P	91	-	40	11d	—	—	+7	11.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Still a maiden; well beaten on sole chase attempt; enough to prove
9	Peckinpah Chestnut J:Charlie Hammond T:Rob Summers	J:Charlie Hammond T:Rob Summers	156	—	0P-54F	88	107	92	269d	—	—	+7	10.4	6.00/1	25 4%
Unexposed over fences but is a longstanding maiden; back from absence
8	Hidalgo Conti Bay J:Mr Charlie Case(7) T:Fiona Kehoe	J:Mr Charlie Case(7) T:Fiona Kehoe	157	—	-F4546	89	84	34	33d	—	—	+7	10.8	6.00/1	25 4%
May improve now handicapping off a modest mark
12	Ogradys Boy Bay J:Tabitha Worsley(3) T:Gary Hanmer	J:Tabitha Worsley(3) T:Gary Hanmer	144	p	4-7PPP	76	-	-	153d	—	—	+5	7.1	12.25/1	50 2%
Has achieved nothing this season

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Post No Bills	10/3	10/3	3	10/3	3
Line Of Descent	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Keplerian	9/2	9/2	7/2	4	4
Supasunrise	6	6	6	6	13/2
Blackcauseway	9	10	9	9	10
Miltiades	8	17/2	8	17/2	17/2
Broadoak	11	10	10	10	11
Conceal	14	12	12	12	12
Alghazaal	12	12	12	12	12
Coconut Tudor	14	14	14	14	14
Peckinpah	22	25	25	25	22
Hidalgo Conti	25	22	22	22	20
Ogradys Boy	50	50	40	50	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Post No Bills

OR: 11.3 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

10/3

2nd

Line Of Descent

25.3

OR: 10.5 Form: 9.1 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Supasunrise

16.8

OR: 9 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Keplerian

15.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Blackcauseway

15.6

OR: 11 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.5

Miltiades

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Conceal

14.9

OR: 10.3 Form: 3 Odds: 1.6

Broadoak

12.7

OR: 6 Form: 4.6 Odds: 2.1

Coconut Tudor

11.6

OR: 10.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Hidalgo Conti

10.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Alghazaal

10.4

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Peckinpah

10.4

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ogradys Boy

7.1

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Miltiades	100	—	—
Post No Bills	95	107	97
Blackcauseway	94	87	23
Keplerian	93	105	83
Line Of Descent	92	107	95
Conceal	91	104	87
Coconut Tudor	91	—	40
Hidalgo Conti	89	84	34
Peckinpah	88	107	92
Supasunrise	86	107	83
Alghazaal	85	—	—
Ogradys Boy	76	—	—
Broadoak	74	104	74

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Coconut Tudor	11d ago	Quick return
Conceal	14d ago	Fit
Broadoak	18d ago	Fit
Blackcauseway	24d ago	Fit
Supasunrise	30d ago	Fit
Hidalgo Conti	33d ago	Fit
Miltiades	42d ago	Fit
Keplerian	54d ago	Fresh
Line Of Descent	55d ago	Fresh
Alghazaal	136d ago	Long break
Ogradys Boy	153d ago	Long break
Post No Bills	208d ago	Long break
Peckinpah	269d ago	Long break