Northern Safety Limited Handicap – Thirsk

Thirsk

4:50

Northern Safety Limited Handicap

Date 2023-07-05

Distance 7f

Class Class 5

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,187

Runners 14

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
3 (4)	Flash The Dash b Ryan Sexton(3) · Julie Camacho	Ryan Sexton(3) · Julie Camacho	141	—	06-579	69	77	47	35d	—	—	-4	8.1	6 17%
Not found his top form since returned to this yard; down in weights but risky proposition
10 (7)	Honour Your Dreams b Callum Rodriguez · Adrian Paul Keatley	Callum Rodriguez · Adrian Paul Keatley	132	—	-45265	68	76	43	11d	—	—	-1	10.3	13/2 13%
Ayr maiden winner last season; good run over 6f here in May; one to consider
8 (6)	Biplane b Paul Hanagan · John Wainwright	Paul Hanagan · John Wainwright	139	b	733141	67	73	44	12d	—	—	+13	23.8	15/2 12%
Won 2 of her last 3 and shouldn't be far away despite the step up into Class 5 company
5 (14)	Blackjack b Connor Beasley · Alan Brown	Connor Beasley · Alan Brown	140	b	912523	68	73	41	25d	—	—	+7	17.6	13/2 13%
Had a good year on AW and ran okay back on turf last month; having a rare 7f run today
7 (5)	Lilikoi b Lewis Edmunds · David & Nicola Barron	Lewis Edmunds · David & Nicola Barron	139	—	224434	67	76	62	29d	—	—	-1	10.4	17/2 11%
Held her form since an AW win in January; strong early pace likely to enhance her claims
1 (12)	Rocket Rod b Mia Nicholls(7) · Geoffrey Harker	Mia Nicholls(7) · Geoffrey Harker	143	—	5-4871	71	76	53	17d	—	—	-1	7.8	8 13%
First turf win at Doncaster last month; up 4lb but should be in the shake-up once again
13 (2)	Temper Trap br David Allan · Tim Easterby	David Allan · Tim Easterby	127	—	-06705	55	73	54	25d	—	—	-5	3.8	17/2 11%
Had purple patch last summer; back to good mark & latest 5th was better; 7f on sharp side
9 (13)	Carlton And Co b Shane Gray · Michael & David Easterby	Shane Gray · Michael & David Easterby	136	t	436-50	64	75	74	17d	—	—	-2	5.4	11 9%
0-11 but has shown winning potential; sharper for last month's return; check betting
2 (11)	One More Dream br Jason Hart · John Quinn	Jason Hart · John Quinn	143	—	142149	71	74	38	15d	—	—	+7	13.7	14 7%
Progressive on AW but still to show comparable form on turf; too much to prove
4 (8)	Mercurius Power b Connor Planas(5) · Jessica Macey	Connor Planas(5) · Jessica Macey	140	t	640060	68	72	55	17d	—	—	-1	6.4	12 8%
Tumbling down the weights but with little sign of capitalising; others look safer
11 (10)	Magical Effect ch Ben Sanderson(3) · Ruth Carr	Ben Sanderson(3) · Ruth Carr	129	b	006688	57	77	58	2d	—	—	-2	3.4	16 6%
Late headway over 6f on Monday; return to 7f can help but this looks too competitive
14 (3)	Maggies Tern b Jonny Peate(3) · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	Jonny Peate(3) · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	127	—	06-535	63	74	59	12d	—	—	0	4.6	20 5%
Maiden who has dropped a long way in the weights; return to 7f needs to squeeze out more
6 (9)	Panama City b Duran Fentiman · Tim Easterby	Duran Fentiman · Tim Easterby	140	—	1599-0	68	71	45	23d	—	—	+3	5.1	40 3%
Struggled in handicaps since his maiden win one year ago; did have an excuse on return
12 (1)	El Montejean b Jack Garritty · Mark Walford	Jack Garritty · Mark Walford	129	—	27-700	65	73	35	15d	—	—	+2	4.5	40 3%
Yet to recapture his 2yo form in three handicaps this year; risky

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Flash The Dash	6	6	6	6	6
Honour Your Dreams	6	6	13/2	6	6
Biplane	15/2	13/2	7	7	7
Blackjack	7	7	13/2	7	7
Lilikoi	8	8	6	15/2	17/2
Rocket Rod	8	8	8	8	8
Temper Trap	8	17/2	15/2	17/2	8
Carlton And Co	11	11	10	11	11
One More Dream	14	12	10	12	12
Mercurius Power	12	12	10	12	12
Magical Effect	16	16	12	16	16
Maggies Tern	20	18	16	18	18
Panama City	40	40	40	40	40
El Montejean	40	33	28	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Biplane

23.8

OR: 4.3 Form: 16.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

2nd

Blackjack

17.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 10 Odds: 3.1

13/2

3rd

One More Dream

13.7

OR: 5.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 1.9

Lilikoi

10.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 3.1 Odds: 3.1

17/2

Honour Your Dreams

10.3

OR: 4.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Flash The Dash

8.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

Rocket Rod

7.8

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Mercurius Power

6.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Carlton And Co

5.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Panama City

5.1

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Maggies Tern

4.6

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

El Montejean

4.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Temper Trap

3.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Magical Effect

3.4

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rocket Rod Top Rated	71	76	53
One More Dream	71	74	38
Flash The Dash	69	77	47
Honour Your Dreams	68	76	43
Blackjack	68	73	41
Mercurius Power	68	72	55
Panama City	68	71	45
Biplane	67	73	44
Lilikoi	67	76	62
El Montejean	65	73	35
Carlton And Co	64	75	74
Maggies Tern	63	74	59
Magical Effect	57	77	58
Temper Trap	55	73	54

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Flash The Dash	35d ago	Fit
Honour Your Dreams	11d ago	Quick return
Biplane	12d ago	Quick return
Blackjack	25d ago	Fit
Lilikoi	29d ago	Fit
Rocket Rod	17d ago	Fit
Temper Trap	25d ago	Fit
Carlton And Co	17d ago	Fit
One More Dream	15d ago	Fit
Mercurius Power	17d ago	Fit
Magical Effect	2d ago	Quick return
Maggies Tern	12d ago	Quick return
Panama City	23d ago	Fit
El Montejean	15d ago	Fit

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Biplane	Prominent
Magical Effect	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 14 runners classified.

Going: Good To Firm

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