Tote, Never Beaten by SP Amateur Riders Derby (Q.R.) Race

Curragh

3:07

Date 2023-10-31

Distance 1m4f

Class

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €10,030

Runners 12

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
3 (4)	Helvic Dream b Mr P W Mullins · Noel Meade	Mr P W Mullins · Noel Meade	161	—	6-7433	105	82	71	38d	—	—	-22	33.2	8/11 58%
Group 1 winner at this venue in 2021 and by far the most likely winner on current form
1 (6)	Coeur Sublime b Mr A Jones(7) · Henry De Bromhead	Mr A Jones(7) · Henry De Bromhead	168	t	1/1	-	69	14	39d	—	—	-3	25.9	15/8 35%
Talented jumper, made it two from two on Flat with 1m6f Listowel win, place chance here
2 (3)	Lord Erskine b Miss M Walsh(7) · H Rogers	Miss M Walsh(7) · H Rogers	168	b	165419	87	57	28	16d	—	—	+3	21.7	7/2 22%
2017 Irish Cesarewitch winner, two wins this term confirm his preference for staying trips
NR (2)	Sugaree gr TBC · Joseph Patrick O'Brien	· Joseph Patrick O'Brien	157	—	7319	84	67	44	73d	—	—	+6	21.3	13/2 13%
A 1m4f maiden winner at Leopardstown, handicap debut over C&D was too bad to be true
7 (7)	Cafe Con Leche b/br Mr A D Bustin(7) · C Byrnes	Mr A D Bustin(7) · C Byrnes	158	—	/59073	67	57	40	—	—	—	+5	8.1	25 4%
Useful hurdler but a maiden in this sphere and faces a tough task
4 (11)	Kottayam b Mr S P Queally(7) · John Queally	Mr S P Queally(7) · John Queally	161	—	1-6807	64	53	32	24d	—	—	+9	11	100 1%
Bumper winner and 2m Flat winner for Willie Mullins, fair C&D handicap run on stable debut
10 (1)	Ally Cay b Mr K P Healy(7) · Paul W Flynn	Mr K P Healy(7) · Paul W Flynn	156	p	/080/9	49	43	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	200 1%
Dual-purpose winner has been soundly beaten over fences lately; tough task
5 (8)	Applejack Poet b Mr A O Harrington(7) · Liz Doyle	Mr A O Harrington(7) · Liz Doyle	158	—	—	-	-	-	9d	—	—	-1	0.4	150 1%
Hurdle winner but beaten a long way in a Leopardstown Flat maiden recently
6 (5)	Balaclava br Ms M Kelly(7) · D J Bunyan & G O'Leary	Ms M Kelly(7) · D J Bunyan & G O'Leary	158	—	807-05	34	31	-	68d	—	—	-1	0.2	300 0%
Placed over jumps, poor form on the Flat, no chance at these weights
8 (10)	Wayne R Walker gr Ms L Dowdall(7) · Donal Kinsella	Ms L Dowdall(7) · Donal Kinsella	158	t	50-706	41	39	-	—	—	—	-1	0.2	300 0%
Has been struggling over hurdles since his last Flat run, makes no appeal on overall form
11 (12)	Encore De Mer b Katie Lawless(7) · S M Duffy	Katie Lawless(7) · S M Duffy	153	—	0-7080	41	35	17	24d	—	—	-1	0.2	300 0%
Never better than sixth in six outings, faces an unenviable task at these weights
12 (9)	Power To Love b Mr F J Gillen(7) · Miss Katy Brown	Mr F J Gillen(7) · Miss Katy Brown	153	—	3-0000	40	32	-3	43d	—	—	+2	2.3	300 0%
Maiden is rated only 40 on turf and has no chance in this company

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Helvic Dream	8/11	8/11	8/11	8/11	8/11
Coeur Sublime	15/8	15/8	7/4	15/8	15/8
Lord Erskine	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Sugaree	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Cafe Con Leche	25	25	25	25	25
Kottayam	100	66	50	66	50
Ally Cay	200	150	150	150	125
Applejack Poet	150	100	100	100	80
Balaclava	300	250	250	250	250
Wayne R Walker	300	200	200	200	100
Encore De Mer	300	250	250	250	250
Power To Love	300	300	300	300	250

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Helvic Dream

33.2

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 19.4

8/11

2nd

Coeur Sublime

25.9

OR: 0 Form: 17 Odds: 8.9

15/8

3rd

Lord Erskine

21.7

OR: 9.3 Form: 7 Odds: 5.4

7/2

Sugaree

21.3

OR: 8.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 4.3

13/2

Kottayam

OR: 3.5 Form: 7 Odds: 0.5

100

Cafe Con Leche

8.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0.9

Power To Love

2.3

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.2

300

Applejack Poet

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

150

Ally Cay

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200

Balaclava

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

300

Wayne R Walker

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

300

Encore De Mer

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

300

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Helvic Dream Top Rated	105	82	71
Lord Erskine	87	57	28
Sugaree	84	67	44
Cafe Con Leche	67	57	40
Kottayam	64	53	32
Ally Cay	49	43	—
Wayne R Walker	41	39	—
Encore De Mer	41	35	17
Power To Love	40	32	—
Balaclava	34	31	—
Coeur Sublime	—	69	14
Applejack Poet	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Helvic Dream	38d ago	Fit
Coeur Sublime	39d ago	Fit
Lord Erskine	16d ago	Fit
Sugaree	73d ago	Fresh
Cafe Con Leche	—	—
Kottayam	24d ago	Fit
Ally Cay	—	—
Applejack Poet	9d ago	Quick return
Balaclava	68d ago	Fresh
Wayne R Walker	—	—
Encore De Mer	24d ago	Fit
Power To Love	43d ago	Fit

Going: Heavy

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