Fireworks Spectacular Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

7:30

Fireworks Spectacular Handicap

Date 2023-11-02

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,051

Runners 10

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
6 (4)	Masterclass gr Callum Shepherd · David Simcock	Callum Shepherd · David Simcock	135	p	741062	68	81	68	8d	—	—	-3	19.2	11/4 27%
2nd on tricky terms at Kempton last week; style of racing not ideally suited to this track
1 (2)	Lilkian ch Liam Wright(7) · Darryll Holland	Liam Wright(7) · Darryll Holland	141	—	430681	74	77	55	7d	—	—	+1	23.3	11/4 27%
Scampered clear late on at Lingfield last week; well in under a penalty; solid chance
9 (1)	Confederation gr David Probert · Dylan Cunha	David Probert · Dylan Cunha	130	t	409245	63	83	49	57d	—	—	-4	9.8	11/2 15%
0-11 for this yard but he's often run well; good draw for a prominent racer; considered
4 (5)	Crown Dreams b Neil Callan · Robert Cowell	Neil Callan · Robert Cowell	136	—	2245	69	78	-	34d	—	—	+1	11.6	15/2 12%
Runner-up over 7f on first two starts; backward steps since; realistic task on h'cap debut
3 (7)	Alafdhal ch Kevin Stott · Phil McEntee	Kevin Stott · Phil McEntee	137	—	476587	70	75	38	81d	—	—	-3	8.1	15/2 12%
In fine form over C&D last winter; back from an unsuccessful stint in Jersey; check market
2 (10)	Em Jay Kay b Josephine Gordon · Phil McEntee	Josephine Gordon · Phil McEntee	137	—	212325	70	79	68	207d	—	—	+8	15.6	11 9%
Two AW wins last winter; wind op during his summer break; wide draw; yard runs two
7 (8)	Starsong b Finley Marsh · Michael Appleby	Finley Marsh · Michael Appleby	133	hb	196247	66	82	76	153d	—	—	0	8.9	11 9%
C&D winner off this mark in February; absent since low-key effort in June; not ruled out
8 (3)	Lynns Boy ch Darragh Keenan · John Butler	Darragh Keenan · John Butler	133	—	-90138	66	80	65	210d	—	—	+8	12.3	20 5%
5f winner in March off 1lb lower; betting to guide back from seven months off
5 (6)	Mellys Flyer b Marco Ghiani · Charlie Wallis	Marco Ghiani · Charlie Wallis	136	h	508408	69	80	48	14d	—	—	+2	5.8	25 4%
Yet to shine in two runs for new yard; down in grade but may need more weight off his back
10 (9)	Chico Dulce b Kieran O'Neill · Rebecca Woodman	Kieran O'Neill · Rebecca Woodman	129	—	559	62	76	-	24d	—	—	+1	3.6	66 2%
More realistic opportunity now handicapping but still not easily recommended

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Masterclass	3	11/4	3	5/2	11/4
Lilkian	3	11/4	3	5/2	11/4
Confederation	11/2	6	6	6	6
Crown Dreams	8	7	15/2	7	7
Alafdhal	7	7	15/2	13/2	7
Em Jay Kay	10	10	11	10	11
Starsong	9	10	11	10	10
Lynns Boy	16	18	20	18	20
Mellys Flyer	20	22	18	22	25
Chico Dulce	66	50	50	50	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lilkian

23.3

OR: 6 Form: 10.6 Odds: 6.7

11/4

2nd

Masterclass

19.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 8 Odds: 6.7

11/4

3rd

Em Jay Kay

15.6

OR: 5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 2.1

Lynns Boy

12.3

OR: 4 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.2

Crown Dreams

11.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 4 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Confederation

9.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 4

11/2

Starsong

8.9

OR: 4 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.4

Alafdhal

8.1

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Mellys Flyer

5.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Chico Dulce

3.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lilkian Top Rated	74	77	55
Alafdhal	70	75	38
Em Jay Kay	70	79	68
Crown Dreams	69	78	—
Mellys Flyer	69	80	48
Masterclass	68	81	68
Starsong	66	82	76
Lynns Boy	66	80	65
Confederation	63	83	49
Chico Dulce	62	76	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Masterclass	8d ago	Quick return
Lilkian	7d ago	Quick return
Confederation	57d ago	Fresh
Crown Dreams	34d ago	Fit
Alafdhal	81d ago	Fresh
Em Jay Kay	207d ago	Long break
Starsong	153d ago	Long break
Lynns Boy	210d ago	Long break
Mellys Flyer	14d ago	Fit
Chico Dulce	24d ago	Fit

Going: Standard To Slow

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