Illuminate Christmas Ball Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

6:00

Illuminate Christmas Ball Handicap

Date 2023-11-21

Distance 2m

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,051

Runners 10

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
3 (5)	Tradesman b Hayley Turner · David Simcock	Hayley Turner · David Simcock	139	b	381611	65	75	53	33d	—	—	+1	34.4	15/8 35%
Won three of his last four and fairly bolted up last month (1m6f); strong claims again
2 (7)	De Vega's Warrior b Rossa Ryan · Michael Appleby	Rossa Ryan · Michael Appleby	140	p	274833	66	78	56	14d	—	—	-6	15.3	7/2 22%
Exposed maiden but conditions no problem and should give his running
9 (2)	Natacata gr Marco Ghiani · Jane Chapple-Hyam	Marco Ghiani · Jane Chapple-Hyam	130	—	-52333	63	73	66	39d	—	—	+1	15.4	6 17%
0-10 for Sir Mark Prescott but promise at up to 2m; sold 20,000gns last month; e-w shout
10 (9)	Grand Duchess Olga b Dylan Hogan · Julia Feilden	Dylan Hogan · Julia Feilden	127	p	262141	60	73	40	24d	—	—	+12	21.9	17/2 11%
On the up here in recent months; unexposed at 2m; not ruled out despite higher grade
6 (8)	A Poet's Secret b Billy Loughnane · Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	Billy Loughnane · Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	134	—	5565V1	67	68	45	16d	—	—	+8	16.8	11 9%
Made a winning handicap debut in a weak 2m event at Lingfield 16 days ago; this is tougher
5 (3)	Sophar Sogood b Daniel Muscutt · John Butler	Daniel Muscutt · John Butler	134	p	531047	60	72	55	19d	—	—	0	8.6	12 8%
2m win at Kempton in September was comfortable; less good since; others appeal more
1 (4)	Pledge Of Honour b Rhys Clutterbuck · Dean Ivory	Rhys Clutterbuck · Dean Ivory	142	p	469767	68	73	63	27d	—	—	0	6.2	14 7%
Five 1m2f wins on turf; on a dangerous mark but step up to 2m isn't sure to suit
4 (1)	Kehlani b Callum Shepherd · Jamie Osborne	Callum Shepherd · Jamie Osborne	135	p	346256	68	73	54	19d	—	—	+3	8.6	16 6%
Yet to win a handicap but she's threatened at up to 1m6f; new trip could suit; e-w claims
8 (10)	Dragonball Prince b David Probert · Hugo Palmer	David Probert · Hugo Palmer	130	p	652256	63	74	-	19d	—	—	+4	8.5	20 5%
14-race maiden but dangerous on this year's turf best; something to prove on Polytrack
7 (6)	Longuerue ch Finley Marsh · Robert Eddery	Finley Marsh · Robert Eddery	133	—	016367	59	68	-	29d	—	—	+5	6	125 1%
Not kicked on from her winning stable debut (1m2f) in May; lots to prove upped to 2m

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tradesman	15/8	7/4	7/4	13/8	13/8
De Vega's Warrior	4	7/2	4	7/2	4
Natacata	6	6	6	6	6
Grand Duchess Olga	8	15/2	17/2	15/2	17/2
A Poet's Secret	10	10	11	10	11
Sophar Sogood	12	10	11	9/1	10
Pledge Of Honour	12	12	14	12	12
Kehlani	16	14	14	14	14
Dragonball Prince	20	18	18	16	16
Longuerue	100	125	125	125	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tradesman

34.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 20 Odds: 10.6

15/8

2nd

Grand Duchess Olga

21.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 16.5 Odds: 2.9

17/2

3rd

A Poet's Secret

16.8

OR: 4.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.5

Natacata

15.4

OR: 3.3 Form: 8.1 Odds: 4

De Vega's Warrior

15.3

OR: 4 Form: 5.1 Odds: 6.2

7/2

Sophar Sogood

8.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 2.5

Kehlani

8.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.6

Dragonball Prince

8.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 4 Odds: 1.2

Pledge Of Honour

6.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Longuerue

OR: 2.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.2

125

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Pledge Of Honour Top Rated	68	73	63
Kehlani	68	73	54
A Poet's Secret	67	68	45
De Vega's Warrior	66	78	56
Tradesman	65	75	53
Natacata	63	73	66
Dragonball Prince	63	74	—
Grand Duchess Olga	60	73	40
Sophar Sogood	60	72	55
Longuerue	59	68	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tradesman	33d ago	Fit
De Vega's Warrior	14d ago	Fit
Natacata	39d ago	Fit
Grand Duchess Olga	24d ago	Fit
A Poet's Secret	16d ago	Fit
Sophar Sogood	19d ago	Fit
Pledge Of Honour	27d ago	Fit
Kehlani	19d ago	Fit
Dragonball Prince	19d ago	Fit
Longuerue	29d ago	Fit

Going: Standard

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