Betfair EBF 'Confined' Novice Stakes (Which Have Not Run More Than 3 Times) (GBB Race)

Chelmsford (AW)

4:30

Date 2024-11-09

Distance 7f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,400

Runners 14

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
1 (13)	Royal Alliance b Billy Loughnane · George Boughey	Billy Loughnane · George Boughey	137	—	41	-	90	52	25d	—	—	-5	16.2	3/1 25%
Big improvement when justifying support at Newcastle and he's respected under a penalty
2 (2)	Akrramm b Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian	Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian	130	—	6	-	83	-	101d	—	—	-17	7.3	3/1 25%
Not beaten far on his Sandown debut in July and looks a likely improver on return
6 (7)	Elements Of Fire b Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-16	6.7	7/2 22%
320,000gns yearling; yard 28% with 2yos here in recent years and needs close look on debut
3 (6)	Beccali b Dougie Costello · Charlie Appleby	Dougie Costello · Charlie Appleby	130	—	77	-	80	-	92d	—	—	-8	3.3	7/1 13%
Well-held seventh when favourite in both runs during the summer and been gelded since
5 (10)	Breakdancer b Ross Coakley · Simon & Ed Crisford	Ross Coakley · Simon & Ed Crisford	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-8	3.1	15/2 12%
450,000euros yearling; interesting newcomer and he needs watching in market
10 (11)	Raafedd b Cieren Fallon · William Haggas	Cieren Fallon · William Haggas	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-5	1.7	12/1 8%
Plenty to like on paper and yard has been in scintillating form this month
7 (4)	Estmrar b Harry Davies · Simon & Ed Crisford	Harry Davies · Simon & Ed Crisford	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-5	1.7	16/1 6%
$120,000 2yo; one of two newcomers for the Crisfords and market should be informative
13 (5)	Dance In The Storm b Callum Hutchinson · Andrew Balding	Callum Hutchinson · Andrew Balding	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	33/1 3%
Half-sister to six winners; looks the part on paper and she's an interesting debutante
4 (3)	Boubyan b William Carver(3) · Andrew Balding	William Carver(3) · Andrew Balding	130	—	76	-	81	45	64d	—	—	-2	0.6	50/1 2%
Some promise in both runs so far and he's open to more progress after a short break
11 (12)	Unknown Journey b Finley Marsh · Paul Attwater	Finley Marsh · Paul Attwater	130	—	646	68	65	46	50d	—	—	+4	4.8	125/1 1%
Some ability in two runs for Peter Chapple-Hyam but he struggled on stable debut latest
8 (1)	Hymnbook b Ben Sanderson(3) · S Woods	Ben Sanderson(3) · S Woods	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	100/1 1%
Has speed and stamina in pedigree and market should guide on debut
12 (14)	West Wickham ro Darragh Keenan · George Scott	Darragh Keenan · George Scott	130	—	70	-	71	35	5d	—	—	-1	0.2	200/1 0%
Well held in two runs at Southwell this autumn and has lots to find on this drop in trip
NR (9)	Keble Spirit b Kieran O'Neill · John & Thady Gosden	Kieran O'Neill · John & Thady Gosden	130	—	56	-	80	-	35d	—	—	—	0	—
One of two runners for the Gosdens and he needs improvement back in trip
NR (8)	Wilhelmina ch NON-RUNNER · Kevin Philippart De Foy	NON-RUNNER · Kevin Philippart De Foy	125	—	26	-	89	-	29d	—	—	—	3.5	—
Runner-up at Kempton and ran respectably from tough draw at Newmarket latest; in the mix

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Royal Alliance	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4
Akrramm	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	3/1
Elements Of Fire	10/3	7/2	10/3	10/3	3/1
Beccali	7/1	7/1	7/1	13/2	7/1
Breakdancer	15/2	7/1	15/2	15/2	15/2
Raafedd	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Estmrar	16/1	14/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Dance In The Storm	33/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Boubyan	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
Unknown Journey	100/1	80/1	100/1	80/1	125/1
Hymnbook	100/1	100/1	100/1	80/1	100/1
West Wickham	125/1	100/1	125/1	125/1	200/1
Keble Spirit	-	-	-	-	-
Wilhelmina	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Royal Alliance

16.2

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 6.2

3/1

2nd

Akrramm

7.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

3/1

3rd

Elements Of Fire

6.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

7/2

Unknown Journey

4.8

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

125/1

Wilhelmina

3.5

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0

—

Beccali

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Breakdancer

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Raafedd

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Estmrar

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Dance In The Storm

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Boubyan

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Hymnbook

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

West Wickham

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Keble Spirit

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Unknown Journey Top Rated	68	65	46
Royal Alliance	—	90	52
Akrramm	—	83	—
Elements Of Fire	—	—	—
Beccali	—	80	—
Breakdancer	—	—	—
Raafedd	—	—	—
Estmrar	—	—	—
Dance In The Storm	—	—	—
Boubyan	—	81	45
Hymnbook	—	—	—
West Wickham	—	71	35
Keble Spirit	—	80	—
Wilhelmina	—	89	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Royal Alliance	25d ago	Fit
Akrramm	101d ago	Long break
Elements Of Fire	—	—
Beccali	92d ago	Long break
Breakdancer	—	—
Raafedd	—	—
Estmrar	—	—
Dance In The Storm	—	—
Boubyan	64d ago	Fresh
Unknown Journey	50d ago	Fresh
Hymnbook	—	—
West Wickham	5d ago	Quick return
Keble Spirit	35d ago	Fit
Wilhelmina	29d ago	Fit

Going: Standard

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