Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Novice Hurdle (Listed Race)

Limerick

3:30

Date 2025-10-18

Distance 2m5f

Class Class 1

Going Yielding

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €17,700

Runners 7

Runners

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
4	Shadow Paddy b Simon Torrens · Eoin Christopher McCarthy	Simon Torrens · Eoin Christopher McCarthy	154	t	-11041	121	137	110	23d	—	—	+8	44.2	7/4 36%
Improving sort won a 2m4f Listowel handicap last time but needs more again today
1	Ballykinlar b/br Eoin Staples · Donncha Duggan	Eoin Staples · Donncha Duggan	154	t	611143	129	145	116	21d	—	—	+17	39.4	3/1 25%
Three wins over the summer but best run when third in a Listowel novice; big player
5	Ephesus ch Daniel King · Denis Gerard Hogan	Daniel King · Denis Gerard Hogan	152	tp	14U-70	121	141	81	—	—	—	+7	22.2	9/2 18%
Course winner has been below form last 2 h'dle runs but won on the Flat 5 days ago
2	Carrigg Island b Darragh O'Keeffe · Eoin Christopher McCarthy	Darragh O'Keeffe · Eoin Christopher McCarthy	154	h	1-5255	123	139	101	21d	—	—	+15	29.3	6/1 14%
C&D maiden winner was 1.5l behind Ballykinlar at Listowel and can run well again
6	Kilbuny Supersonic b Cian Quirke · Richard J O'Hara	Cian Quirke · Richard J O'Hara	147	—	132245	114	141	119	13d	—	—	+14	23.3	9/1 10%
Maiden hurdle winner has been well below form the last twice and has plenty to find
3	Dramatic License b J J Slevin · S R B Crawford	J J Slevin · S R B Crawford	154	t	4-3471	107	120	105	69d	—	—	+10	16	14/1 7%
Narrow winner of a Downpatrick maiden hurdle last time; has to improve plenty on that
NR	Strong Contender gr Sam Ewing · Norman Lee	Sam Ewing · Norman Lee	145	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	—	0	—
Half-sister to a decent bumper/hurdle winner; will have to be smart to take this on debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Shadow Paddy	6/4	13/8	6/4	6/4	7/4
Ballykinlar	3/1	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4
Ephesus	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2	4/1
Carrigg Island	6/1	6/1	5/1	6/1	5/1
Kilbuny Supersonic	9/1	17/2	9/1	17/2	8/1
Dramatic License	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Strong Contender	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Shadow Paddy

44.2

OR: 17.8 Form: 15 Odds: 11.4

7/4

2nd

Ballykinlar

39.4

OR: 19.8 Form: 13 Odds: 6.7

3/1

3rd

Carrigg Island

29.3

OR: 18.3 Form: 7 Odds: 4

6/1

Kilbuny Supersonic

23.3

OR: 16 Form: 4.6 Odds: 2.7

9/1

Ephesus

22.2

OR: 17.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Dramatic License

OR: 14.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Strong Contender

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ballykinlar Top Rated	129	145	116
Carrigg Island	123	139	101
Shadow Paddy	121	137	110
Ephesus	121	141	81
Kilbuny Supersonic	114	141	119
Dramatic License	107	120	105
Strong Contender	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Shadow Paddy	23d ago	Fit
Ballykinlar	21d ago	Fit
Ephesus	—	—
Carrigg Island	21d ago	Fit
Kilbuny Supersonic	13d ago	Quick return
Dramatic License	69d ago	Fresh
Strong Contender	—	—

Going: Yielding

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