talkSPORT All-Weather Vase Three-Year-Old Handicap – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

17:00

talkSPORT All-Weather Vase Three-Year-Old Handicap

Date 2023-04-07

Distance 6f1y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £23,193

Winning Time 1m 10.54s (slow by 1.14s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Expert Agent (GB) Jack Mitchell · Kevin Philippart De Foy	5/2F	Won
2nd	Democracy Dilemma (IRE) Rossa Ryan · David Evans	17/2	0.2
3rd	Rose King (IRE) Luke Morris · Scott Dixon	25/1	2.5
4th	Champagne Sarah (IRE) Daniel Muscutt · Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	40/1	.5
5th	Radio Goo Goo (GB) Neil Callan · David Evans	11/1	0.2
6th	Havana By The Sea (IRE) Paul Hanagan · Craig Lidster	14/1	1.25
7th	Huberts Dream (IRE) William Buick · Stuart Williams	3/1	0.3
8th	Maharajas Express (GB) Jason Hart · Richard Spencer	15/2	0.3
9th	Matching Sox (IRE) David Probert · Andrew Balding	20/1	1.25
10th	Mogok Valley (IRE) Lewis Edmunds · William Muir & Chris Grassick	18/1	0.3
11th	Sergeant Pep (IRE) John Fahy · Clive Cox	15/2	.5
12th	Warminster (GB) Hayley Turner · John Ryan	100/1	9.5

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (4)	Expert Agent Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	132	p	845-11	82	96	77	37d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-8	14.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
2-2 since being gelded; up in class today but may not have reached his ceiling just yet
1 (3)	Huberts Dream Grey J:William Buick T:Stuart Williams	J:William Buick T:Stuart Williams	135	—	111-52	85	95	83	60d	—	—	-5	14.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
3 wins here in late 2022; solid 2nd over 5f latest; return to 6f a positive; more to come
7 (8)	Maharajas Express Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	128	—	12-8	78	93	70	30d	—	—	-2	10.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
In contention when badly hampered at Kempton on handicap debut last month; unexposed
3 (11)	Sergeant Pep Bay J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	134	—	21-2	84	96	80	92d	—	—	+7	16	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Very interesting on his first two runs but beaten at 1-9 when dropped to 5f latest
9 (6)	Radio Goo Goo gr/b J:Neil Callan T:David Evans	J:Neil Callan T:David Evans	125	—	2422-1	75	92	77	32d	—	—	+11	18.2	2.50/1	11 9%
Off the mark at Wolverhampton last month (6f, made all); more on her plate today
2 (9)	Havana By The Sea Bay J:Paul Hanagan T:Craig Lidster	J:Paul Hanagan T:Craig Lidster	135	—	55153-	85	93	78	113d	—	—	+11	18.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Two wins last year and should win more races this time round; perhaps not this one though
4 (2)	Democracy Dilemma Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	133	v	8-6313	83	93	86	13d	—	—	+3	10.2	2.25/1	10 10%
Impressive over 5f in February; tired in straight over 6f since; 5f probably his optimum
6 (7)	Matching Sox Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	128	h	10-442	78	90	69	54d	—	—	+4	8.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Two good runs in February but he will need improvement to come out on top today
11 (5)	Rose King Bay J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	124	—	118	74	89	64	24d	—	—	+15	19.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Three runs at Southwell, winning his first two before a modest run on handicap debut
8 (12)	Mogok Valley Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Lewis Edmunds T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	126	tp	3-2314	76	92	74	30d	—	—	+5	10	4.25/1	18 6%
Improved for the addition of cheekpieces but he has the widest stall to overcome this time
10 (1)	Champagne Sarah Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	124	—	5313-3	74	95	70	13d	—	—	+7	9.9	9.75/1	40 3%
5f Tapeta winner in November; return to 6f may help and she's not yet fully exposed
12 (10)	Warminster Bay J:Hayley Turner T:John Ryan	J:Hayley Turner T:John Ryan	120	p	8-1536	70	91	69	6d	—	—	+3	5.6	16.25/1	66 2%
Kempton maiden win in January has been followed by three lesser h'cap runs; headgear now

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Expert Agent	11/4	11/4	5/2	11/4	11/4
Huberts Dream	10/3	10/3	3	10/3	7/2
Maharajas Express	5	11/2	5	11/2	11/2
Sergeant Pep	8	15/2	8	8	8
Radio Goo Goo	10	10	10	11	10
Havana By The Sea	9	11	11	11	11
Democracy Dilemma	10	10	10	10	10
Matching Sox	25	22	22	25	25
Rose King	20	25	25	25	25
Mogok Valley	18	16	14	16	16
Champagne Sarah	40	33	33	33	33
Warminster	66	50	40	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Rose King

19.1

OR: 6 Form: 12 Odds: 1.1

2nd

Havana By The Sea

18.9

OR: 8.8 Form: 8 Odds: 2.1

3rd

Radio Goo Goo

18.2

OR: 6.3 Form: 10 Odds: 1.9

Sergeant Pep

OR: 8.5 Form: 5 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Expert Agent

14.7

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

11/4

Huberts Dream

14.5

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Maharajas Express

10.6

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Democracy Dilemma

10.2

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Mogok Valley

OR: 6.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.4

Champagne Sarah

9.9

OR: 6 Form: 3 Odds: 0.9

Matching Sox

8.1

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Warminster

5.6

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Huberts Dream	85	95	83
Havana By The Sea	85	93	78
Sergeant Pep	84	96	80
Democracy Dilemma	83	93	86
Expert Agent	82	96	77
Maharajas Express	78	93	70
Matching Sox	78	90	69
Mogok Valley	76	92	74
Radio Goo Goo	75	92	77
Rose King	74	89	64
Champagne Sarah	74	95	70
Warminster	70	91	69

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Warminster	6d ago	Quick return
Democracy Dilemma	13d ago	Quick return
Champagne Sarah	13d ago	Quick return
Rose King	24d ago	Fit
Maharajas Express	30d ago	Fit
Mogok Valley	30d ago	Fit
Radio Goo Goo	32d ago	Fit
Expert Agent	37d ago	Fit
Matching Sox	54d ago	Fresh
Huberts Dream	60d ago	Fresh
Sergeant Pep	92d ago	Long break
Havana By The Sea	113d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 6f1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.