talkSPORT All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

13:50

Date 2023-04-07

Distance 6f

Class Class 2

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £77,310

Winning Time 1m 11.42s (slow by 1.02s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Desert Cop (GB) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	11/1	Won
2nd	Shouldvebeenaring (GB) Sean Levey · Richard Hannon	2/1F	1.75
3rd	The X O (IRE) Robert Havlin · John Ryan	22/1	2
4th	Michaela's Boy (IRE) Frederick Larson · Michael Appleby	50/1	1
5th	Perdika (GB) Kevin Stott · George Boughey	13/2	3
6th	New Definition (GB) Clifford Lee · James Tate	11/1	0.3
7th	Glorious Angel (IRE) Sam James · Grant Tuer	33/1	.75
8th	Hello Queen (IRE) Shane Gray · Kevin Ryan	12/1	4.25
9th	Danger Alert (GB) James Doyle · George Boughey	9/1	4

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (7)	Shaquille Bay J:Graham Lee T:Julie Camacho	J:Graham Lee T:Julie Camacho	133	h	1911-	94	107	96	125d	—	—	+12	39.4	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Only defeat came in Gr 3 on 2nd start; looked good since dropped to 6f; leading contender
6 (9)	Shouldvebeenaring Grey J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	133	—	462-15	103	110	86	34d	—	—	-1	19.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Good strike-rate but he wasn't at his best over 7f latest (behind New Definition)
10 (10)	Perdika Bay J:Kevin Stott T:George Boughey	J:Kevin Stott T:George Boughey	128	t	-94271	104	107	84	17d	—	—	+18	29.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Progressive and tough filly; unpenalised for Listed win in France; strong pace will suit
2 (3)	Desert Cop Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	133	—	921	79	88	57	51d	—	—	+15	22.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Ready front-running success dropped to 6f latest; much tougher task but bred to be smart
1 (4)	Danger Alert Bay J:James Doyle T:George Boughey	J:James Doyle T:George Boughey	133	b	24-121	89	96	82	30d	—	—	+5	11.5	2.75/1	12 8%
2-3 since the blinkers went on in January; more to come but flying higher today
4 (2)	New Definition Bay J:Clifford Lee T:James Tate	J:Clifford Lee T:James Tate	133	—	321-20	100	107	84	6d	—	—	+7	14.6	2.00/1	9 11%
Two Polytrack wins last year; Listed 2nd (7f) last month but ran poorly over 1m last week
9 (8)	Hello Queen Bay J:Shane Gray T:Kevin Ryan	J:Shane Gray T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	4-11	77	95	61	35d	—	—	+3	8.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Well-bred filly who is on the right path; pitched into warm race for hat-trick bid though
7 (5)	The X O Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John Ryan	J:Robert Havlin T:John Ryan	133	—	2-1315	87	98	66	30d	—	—	+10	13.8	4.75/1	20 5%
Two 6f wins at Southwell this year; behind Danger Alert latest start; others are stronger
8 (6)	Glorious Angel Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	128	—	113455	89	103	80	11d	—	—	+10	13.5	6.75/1	28 4%
Limitations seemingly exposed following her quick hat-trick in January
3 (1)	Michaelas Boy Chestnut J:Frederick Larson T:Michael Appleby	J:Frederick Larson T:Michael Appleby	133	—	9411-8	94	103	96	17d	—	—	+9	11.8	9.75/1	40 3%
Two 5f wins for this yard in late 2022; stuck in the mud in France latest; stamina worries

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Shaquille	2	2	17/8	2	9/4
Shouldvebeenaring	3	3	3	3	11/4
Perdika	6	6	11/2	6	13/2
Desert Cop	11	9	9	9	9
Danger Alert	12	11	11	12	12
New Definition	9	9	9	9	9
Hello Queen	16	16	14	16	16
The X O	20	20	20	20	20
Glorious Angel	28	25	25	28	25
Michaelas Boy	40	40	33	40	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Shaquille

39.4

OR: 11 Form: 20 Odds: 8.4

9/4

2nd

Perdika

29.3

OR: 13.5 Form: 12.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

3rd

Desert Cop

22.9

OR: 7.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 2.1

Shouldvebeenaring

19.4

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

11/4

New Definition

14.6

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

The X O

13.8

OR: 9.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.1

Glorious Angel

13.5

OR: 9.8 Form: 2.9 Odds: 0.9

Michaelas Boy

11.8

OR: 11 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Danger Alert

11.5

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Hello Queen

8.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Perdika	104	107	84
Shouldvebeenaring	103	110	86
New Definition	100	107	84
Shaquille	94	107	96
Michaelas Boy	94	103	96
Danger Alert	89	96	82
Glorious Angel	89	103	80
The X O	87	98	66
Desert Cop	79	88	57
Hello Queen	77	95	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
New Definition	6d ago	Quick return
Glorious Angel	11d ago	Quick return
Perdika	17d ago	Fit
Michaelas Boy	17d ago	Fit
Danger Alert	30d ago	Fit
The X O	30d ago	Fit
Shouldvebeenaring	34d ago	Fit
Hello Queen	35d ago	Fit
Desert Cop	51d ago	Fresh
Shaquille	125d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.