Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

15:20

Date 2023-04-13

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3-5yo

Prize £4,320

Runners (5)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (1)	Naxos Chestnut J:Kevin Stott T:George Boughey	J:Kevin Stott T:George Boughey	134	h	12-	89	94	60	162d	—	—	-15	41.8	0.14/1	4/7 64%
7f winner here on debut; too keen over 1m next time; gelded since; now tried in a hood
3 (3)	Mlle Chanel Bay J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	129	—	16-	84	91	-	266d	—	—	+3	20.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Debut win came in modest Chester novice; not disgraced in Listed race latest; 1m can help
1 (5)	Fade To Gray Grey J:Oliver Stammers(3) T:Grant Tuer	J:Oliver Stammers(3) T:Grant Tuer	134	—	31	75	82	44	49d	—	—	+6	23.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Comfortable 7f winner here in February; 1m should suit but Naxos has achieved more
5 (2)	Keeponbelieving Grey J:Sam James T:Liam Bailey	J:Sam James T:Liam Bailey	120	—	4-	-	68	42	166d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.25/1	50 2%
125-1 when a modest fourth on her Wolverhampton debut in October; tough task on her return
4 (4)	Sidneys Son Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	127	—	89-	-	52	-	163d	—	—	-1	0.5	24.75/1	100 1%
Finished out the back in two Redcar runs (1m/7f) on slow ground last autumn; hard to fancy

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Naxos	4/7	8/15	8/15	8/15	8/15
Mlle Chanel	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Fade To Gray	9/2	7/2	4	4	4
Keeponbelieving	40	33	50	40	33
Sidneys Son	100	66	100	80	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Naxos

41.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 12 Odds: 20

4/7

2nd

Fade To Gray

23.4

OR: 6.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Mlle Chanel

20.7

OR: 8.5 Form: 7 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Keeponbelieving

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Sidneys Son

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Naxos	89	94	60
Mlle Chanel	84	91	—
Fade To Gray	75	82	44
Keeponbelieving	—	68	42
Sidneys Son	—	52	—

Last Run

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.