Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:40

Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap

Date 2023-04-13

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,402

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (11)	Jems Bond Chestnut J:Connor Beasley T:Alan Brown	J:Connor Beasley T:Alan Brown	133	p	721831	63	79	71	13d	—	—	+4	26	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Three wins here already this year; battled well last time and a 2lb rise is fair enough
3 (9)	Blazing Son Chestnut J:Mark Winn(5) T:Bryan Smart	J:Mark Winn(5) T:Bryan Smart	135	—	4211-3	65	77	61	20d	—	—	-7	12.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Ended 2022 on the up and made a pleasing return 3 weeks ago; firmly in the mix
9 (7)	Mumcat Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	132	hp	4-2302	62	76	66	20d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.50/1	7 14%
Good 2nd over C&D last time; has some quirks but new cheekpieces could help; chance
7 (3)	Sir Benedict Chestnut J:Sam James T:Stella Barclay	J:Sam James T:Stella Barclay	132	—	2-8466	62	77	62	13d	—	—	-3	10.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Comes here on the back of two runs where he's met major trouble; interesting back at 6f
12 (5)	Merry Secret Bay J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Lawrence Mullaney	J:Sean Kirrane(3) T:Lawrence Mullaney	123	—	687-19	53	78	58	13d	—	—	-6	3.4	2.13/1	17/2 11%
C&D win last month and had a valid excuse last time; one to consider
2 (6)	Thaki Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Katie Scott	J:Phil Dennis T:Katie Scott	135	t	7-3727	65	77	55	20d	—	—	-3	6.3	2.50/1	11 9%
Conditions to suit and comes here in good form; sold for £5,000 last week; contender
10 (10)	Tathmeen Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	131	p	158532	61	77	65	10d	—	—	+5	11.8	2.75/1	12 8%
Placed over C&D on his last two starts; each-way claims once again
4 (12)	Patontheback Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	J:Rowan Scott T:Gemma Tutty	134	—	55364-	64	77	-	181d	—	—	+1	6.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Of interest on his best form but may not be at that level after six months off
8 (4)	Dream Together Chestnut J:Jack Garritty T:Jedd Okeeffe	J:Jack Garritty T:Jedd Okeeffe	132	—	5700-5	62	71	62	13d	—	—	-1	4.6	4.75/1	20 5%
On a good mark and recent reappearance should have sharpened him up; not ruled out
11 (1)	Brides Bay Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Sam England	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Sam England	128	—	54640-	58	75	45	192d	—	—	-1	3	8.00/1	33 3%
0-11 but resumes on a good mark and she's had wind surgery; should win races this year
5 (2)	Hey Mr Bay J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	133	—	4396-7	63	78	-	11d	—	—	+1	4.2	9.75/1	40 3%
Down in the weights and could come on for recent stable debut; check betting
1 (8)	Merricourt Grey J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	135	—	3456-0	65	72	23	13d	—	—	+2	4.5	9.75/1	40 3%
Multiple winner over further; low-key return last month; 6f a question mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Jems Bond	7/2	10/3	3	5/2	3
Blazing Son	7/2	4	7/2	3	3
Mumcat	7	6	5	6	6
Sir Benedict	13/2	11/2	13/2	6	13/2
Merry Secret	15/2	17/2	8	8	9
Thaki	8	17/2	17/2	8	11
Tathmeen	12	10	11	10	10
Patontheback	16	18	14	16	16
Dream Together	20	16	12	16	18
Brides Bay	20	33	33	22	33
Hey Mr	33	40	20	28	33
Merricourt	40	40	33	40	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Jems Bond

OR: 3.3 Form: 16.1 Odds: 6.7

7/2

2nd

Blazing Son

12.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 3 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Tathmeen

11.8

OR: 2.8 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.9

Sir Benedict

10.1

OR: 3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Mumcat

6.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

Patontheback

6.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

Thaki

6.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Dream Together

4.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Merricourt

4.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Hey Mr

4.2

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Merry Secret

3.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Brides Bay

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Blazing Son	65	77	61
Thaki	65	77	55
Merricourt	65	72	23
Patontheback	64	77	—
Jems Bond	63	79	71
Hey Mr	63	78	—
Mumcat	62	76	66
Sir Benedict	62	77	62
Dream Together	62	71	62
Tathmeen	61	77	65
Brides Bay	58	75	45
Merry Secret	53	78	58

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tathmeen	10d ago	Quick return
Hey Mr	11d ago	Quick return
Jems Bond	13d ago	Quick return
Sir Benedict	13d ago	Quick return
Merry Secret	13d ago	Quick return
Dream Together	13d ago	Quick return
Merricourt	13d ago	Quick return
Blazing Son	20d ago	Fit
Mumcat	20d ago	Fit
Thaki	20d ago	Fit
Patontheback	181d ago	Long break
Brides Bay	192d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.