Connaught Access Flooring Handicap – Newmarket

Newmarket

13:50

Connaught Access Flooring Handicap

Date 2023-04-19

Distance 1m

Class Class 4

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £13,085

Runners (15)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
13 (14)	Elwasme Bay J:William Buick T:Andrew Balding	J:William Buick T:Andrew Balding	127	—	64-4	77	92	71	15d	—	—	-5	11.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Fair form on all three runs as 2yo, including on soft; handicap debut; may still do better
6 (4)	Supreme King Bay J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	J:Sean Levey T:Richard Hannon	133	—	2527-2	83	94	78	14d	—	—	+6	15.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
2nd in four of six starts; pipped on handicap debut at Nottingham (1m, soft) two weeks ago
9 (1)	Connemara Coast Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:Richard Hughes	J:Jamie Spencer T:Richard Hughes	131	—	31-5	81	90	59	25d	—	—	+2	10.1	2.25/1	10 10%
AW win as 2yo; gelded since a creditable return; needs improvement on this handicap debut
1 (8)	Dionysian Chestnut J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	J:Marco Ghiani T:Stuart Williams	137	—	411-	87	94	50	133d	—	—	+20	28.8	2.25/1	10 10%
Promise on good to soft; impressive from the front in two 1m novice wins on Kempton AW
3 (10)	Gulmarg Bay J:Harry Davies(3) T:S Woods	J:Harry Davies(3) T:S Woods	134	—	2253-3	84	93	85	21d	—	—	+5	14	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won two of nine starts as 2yo; shaped when reappearing as if the return to 1m should help
4 (7)	Bussento Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	134	—	432-3	84	93	86	20d	—	—	+7	13.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Took a backward step when 11-8 in AW novice three weeks ago; far too early to dismiss him
11 (3)	Surely Not Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Hollie Doyle T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	129	—	17315-	79	93	74	193d	—	—	+14	19.4	3.25/1	14 7%
Fair fifth of 12 in a York nursery on final 2yo outing, when upped to 1m on good to soft
14 (15)	Playupskyblues Grey J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	123	—	831-	73	90	78	187d	—	—	+13	19.6	2.75/1	12 8%
Made all when 8-15 in novice at Redcar (1m, good to soft) in October; more in the tank
15 (2)	Dream Pirate Bay J:Andrea Atzeni T:T J Kent	J:Andrea Atzeni T:T J Kent	123	—	9-36	73	90	19	25d	—	—	+1	7.5	3.75/1	16 6%
Neck behind Connemara Coast, who gave 7lb, last time; brings potential to handicap debut
7 (5)	Seductive Power Bay J:Jim Crowley T:Richard Hannon	J:Jim Crowley T:Richard Hannon	132	t	193-22	82	93	74	14d	—	—	+4	9.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Runner-up in his two small-field AW handicaps (1m/7f) this season; tongue tied latest
5 (6)	Burdett Road Bay J:James Doyle T:Michael Bell	J:James Doyle T:Michael Bell	134	—	722-41	84	91	43	43d	—	—	+5	9.9	3.75/1	16 6%
AW win six weeks ago; it's needed in this race but it looks like he has more to offer
2 (11)	Lion Kingdom Grey J:Oisin Murphy T:James Fanshawe	J:Oisin Murphy T:James Fanshawe	135	t	431-	85	89	55	214d	—	—	+17	22.2	4.75/1	20 5%
This handicap debut demands further progress but he's delivered plenty of that so far
8 (13)	Cobalt Blue Chestnut J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	132	—	0422-	82	91	58	214d	—	—	+13	17.7	4.75/1	20 5%
Late foal who may still be capable of better; it is needed on this handicap/seasonal debut
12 (12)	Gentle Whinny Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Denis Coakley	J:Tom Marquand T:Denis Coakley	129	—	541-	79	88	77	198d	—	—	+14	18.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Won novice at Windsor (also 1m) in battling fashion as 2yo; open to further progress
10 (9)	Almarin Bay J:Louis Steward T:Patrick Owens	J:Louis Steward T:Patrick Owens	130	—	541-	80	89	62	206d	—	—	+14	18.7	4.75/1	20 5%
Progressive as 2yo, striding clear in novice at Yarmouth (1m, good to soft) last time

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Elwasme	4	4	7/2	4	4
Supreme King	8	15/2	7	15/2	15/2
Connemara Coast	10	8	8	9	10
Dionysian	10	9	8	15/2	8
Gulmarg	9	17/2	8	9	9
Bussento	14	12	12	12	12
Surely Not	14	12	12	14	14
Playupskyblues	12	12	11	11	11
Dream Pirate	16	12	12	11	12
Seductive Power	18	16	16	16	16
Burdett Road	16	14	14	14	14
Lion Kingdom	20	16	16	18	16
Cobalt Blue	20	18	18	20	20
Gentle Whinny	18	14	14	16	16
Almarin	20	18	18	18	18

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dionysian

28.8

OR: 9.3 Form: 17 Odds: 2.5

2nd

Lion Kingdom

22.2

OR: 8.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 1.4

3rd

Playupskyblues

19.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 1.7

Surely Not

19.4

OR: 7.3 Form: 10.5 Odds: 1.6

Almarin

18.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.2

Gentle Whinny

18.6

OR: 7.3 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

Cobalt Blue

17.7

OR: 8 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1.2

Supreme King

15.9

OR: 8.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Gulmarg

OR: 8.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Bussento

13.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.7

Elwasme

11.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5

7/2

Connemara Coast

10.1

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Burdett Road

9.9

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Seductive Power

9.4

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Dream Pirate

7.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dionysian	87	94	50
Lion Kingdom	85	89	55
Gulmarg	84	93	85
Bussento	84	93	86
Burdett Road	84	91	43
Supreme King	83	94	78
Seductive Power	82	93	74
Cobalt Blue	82	91	58
Connemara Coast	81	90	59
Almarin	80	89	62
Surely Not	79	93	74
Gentle Whinny	79	88	77
Elwasme	77	92	71
Playupskyblues	73	90	78
Dream Pirate	73	90	19

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Supreme King	14d ago	Fit
Seductive Power	14d ago	Fit
Elwasme	15d ago	Fit
Bussento	20d ago	Fit
Gulmarg	21d ago	Fit
Connemara Coast	25d ago	Fit
Dream Pirate	25d ago	Fit
Burdett Road	43d ago	Fit
Dionysian	133d ago	Long break
Playupskyblues	187d ago	Long break
Surely Not	193d ago	Long break
Gentle Whinny	198d ago	Long break
Almarin	206d ago	Long break
Lion Kingdom	214d ago	Long break
Cobalt Blue	214d ago	Long break