Ire-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Chelmer Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (IRE Incentive Race)

Chelmsford (AW)

19:25

Date 2023-04-27

Distance 6f

Class Class 1

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £45,368

Runners (14)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
1 (6)	Believing Bay J:James Doyle T:George Boughey	J:James Doyle T:George Boughey	128	t	2273-5	98	110	67	8d	—	—	-5	19.3	5/2 29%
Drop from 7f will suit and she's one of the likelier winners now she's had a run
NR (13)	Pillow Talk Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:K R Burke	J:NON-RUNNER T:K R Burke	128	—	216-	93	-	-	315d	—	—	-30	40.3	7 14%
Wide stall to deal with now going beyond 5f; interesting to see how she goes in the market
9 (3)	Minnetonka Bay J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	128	—	4454-4	92	104	76	54d	—	—	+1	14.1	11/2 15%
Will be happier back down in trip from a handy draw but is vulnerable to improvers
11 (12)	Rage Of Bamby Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	128	—	1139-	102	113	-	202d	—	—	+15	26.2	7/1 13%
Combination of drop in trip, sharp course and stall 12 is a worry but sets the standard
6 (4)	Lady Hamana Bay J:Shane Foley T:K R Burke	J:Shane Foley T:K R Burke	128	—	1554-5	95	100	66	37d	—	—	+5	13.8	15/2 12%
Well held on her comeback in France last month; Pillow Talk perhaps her yard's best shot
3 (7)	Glenlaurel Bay J:Neil Callan T:Kevin Ryan	J:Neil Callan T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	168-	96	105	-	252d	—	—	+10	18.9	8 13%
Highly tried last summer after impressive debut win; this is more realistic; possibilities
2 (1)	Catherine Of Siena Bay J:Sean Levey T:Kevin Thomas Coleman	J:Sean Levey T:Kevin Thomas Coleman	128	—	211-32	86	104	90	42d	—	—	+4	11.1	10 10%
This course should suit her style but she has plenty to find; holds each-way claims
8 (11)	Marine Wave Chestnut J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	128	—	5174-	94	105	60	181d	—	—	+11	17.9	12 8%
Better with each start last year; further improvement is possible and she's considered
13 (10)	Woolhampton Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Rod Millman	J:Oisin Murphy T:Rod Millman	128	p	703-18	84	101	53	6d	—	—	+5	9.9	16 6%
Step back up from 5f looks in her favour but will be doing well to make the frame
12 (2)	Wave Machine Bay J:Ben Coen T:J P Murtagh	J:Ben Coen T:J P Murtagh	128	—	1401-9	92	105	-	19d	—	—	+7	11.9	20 5%
Again found this company too hot when last of nine on her Cork comeback
14 (14)	Zouky Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Philip Mcbride	J:Marco Ghiani T:Philip Mcbride	128	—	11-5	87	101	70	33d	—	—	+6	10.6	20 5%
Lightly raced but this is a deal tougher and she's landed stall 14
5 (5)	Its Showtime Baby Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	128	p	13558-	92	101	-	269d	—	—	+10	14.6	20 5%
Picked up for 150,000gns; needs to have improved over the winter if she's to take this
4 (8)	Glorious Angel Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Grant Tuer	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Grant Tuer	128	—	134557	88	100	80	20d	—	—	+8	10.7	66 2%
Ran up a quick hat-trick in Tapeta handicaps early in the year but this looks beyond her
7 (9)	Love Affairs Bay J:David Probert T:Amy Murphy	J:David Probert T:Amy Murphy	128	p	2312-6	84	98	-	37d	—	—	+7	9	66/1 1%
Behind Lady Hamana on her comeback inn France and this again looks tough

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Believing	9/4	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4
Pillow Talk	SP	7	SP	SP	SP
Minnetonka	5	11/2	6	11/2	11/2
Rage Of Bamby	13/2	7/1	7	13/2	13/2
Lady Hamana	8	15/2	8	8	8
Glenlaurel	8	8	8	8	8
Catherine Of Siena	10	10	9	10	10
Marine Wave	12	11	12	12	12
Woolhampton	16	16	16	16	16
Wave Machine	20	16/1	18	18	18
Zouky	20	18	18	18	18
Its Showtime Baby	20	18	18	20	20
Glorious Angel	66	50	50	50	66
Love Affairs	66	66/1	50	66	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Pillow Talk

40.3

OR: 10.8 Form: 9.5 Odds: 20

2nd

Rage Of Bamby

26.2

OR: 13 Form: 10.1 Odds: 3.1

7/1

3rd

Believing

19.3

OR: 12 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Glenlaurel

18.9

OR: 11.5 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

Marine Wave

17.9

OR: 11 Form: 5 Odds: 1.9

Its Showtime Baby

14.6

OR: 10.5 Form: 2.9 Odds: 1.2

Minnetonka

14.1

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Lady Hamana

13.8

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Wave Machine

11.9

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Catherine Of Siena

11.1

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Glorious Angel

10.7

OR: 9.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.6

Zouky

10.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Woolhampton

9.9

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Love Affairs

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Rage Of Bamby	102	113	—
Believing	98	110	67
Glenlaurel	96	105	—
Lady Hamana	95	100	66
Marine Wave	94	105	60
Pillow Talk	93	—	—
Minnetonka	92	104	76
Wave Machine	92	105	—
Its Showtime Baby	92	101	—
Glorious Angel	88	100	80
Zouky	87	101	70
Catherine Of Siena	86	104	90
Woolhampton	84	101	53
Love Affairs	84	98	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Woolhampton	6d ago	Quick return
Believing	8d ago	Quick return
Wave Machine	19d ago	Fit
Glorious Angel	20d ago	Fit
Zouky	33d ago	Fit
Lady Hamana	37d ago	Fit
Love Affairs	37d ago	Fit
Catherine Of Siena	42d ago	Fit
Minnetonka	54d ago	Fresh
Marine Wave	181d ago	Long break
Rage Of Bamby	202d ago	Long break
Glenlaurel	252d ago	Long break
Its Showtime Baby	269d ago	Long break
Pillow Talk	315d ago	Long break