Follow @Attheraces On Twitter Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Newcastle (AW)

18:35

Date 2023-05-08

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,978

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (6)	Coppice Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	135	—	1-0	97	100	77	19d	—	—	-18	38.8	0.14/1	4/7 64%
Impressive on 2yo debut; beaten fav in Group 3 on return; remains a smart prospect
8 (5)	Rising Bay Bay J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	J:P J McDonald T:Andrew Balding	128	—	8-4	-	87	51	19d	—	—	-14	5.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Clear promise in her two runs and she has more to come; needs taking seriously
5 (8)	Fleurir Chestnut J:Ray Dawson T:Roger Varian	J:Ray Dawson T:Roger Varian	128	h	3-	-	86	67	159d	—	—	-8	7.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Promising start at Lingfield (1m, AW) in November; lots more to come; each-way contender
7 (4)	Merrnaa b/br J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.4	4.25/1	18 6%
160,000euros yearling; well-bred newcomer but she has a useful standard to aim at
6 (2)	Jos Rainbow Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	128	—	4-	-	73	36	178d	—	—	-3	1.1	5.25/1	22 5%
Bred for middle distances and can leave her 2yo debut behind her in time; third 6.35 Monday
2 (7)	Apollos Angel Grey J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	128	—	5	-	79	-	32d	—	—	-2	0.8	6.75/1	28 4%
Debut effort at Southwell wasn't without promise; big step forward needed to feature
4 (1)	Delayed Action Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	128	—	98-	-	63	-	238d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Huge prices and well beaten in two runs last summer; handicaps more suitable after this
3 (3)	Clementyne Bay J:Charlie Bennett T:Alan Brown	J:Charlie Bennett T:Alan Brown	128	—	00-	-	25	-	139d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.25/1	250 0%
200-1 when finishing last in two AW novice events in December

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Coppice	8/15	8/15	1/2	8/15	4/7
Rising Bay	9/2	3	7/2	7/2	7/2
Fleurir	5	5	11/2	4	5
Merrnaa	14	18	18	16	16
Jos Rainbow	20	20	22	20	20
Apollos Angel	28	28	28	28	28
Delayed Action	100	66	66	66	66
Clementyne	250	200	200	200	200

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Coppice

38.8

OR: 11.8 Form: 7 Odds: 20

4/7

2nd

Fleurir

7.4

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Rising Bay

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

9/2

Merrnaa

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Jos Rainbow

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Apollos Angel

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Delayed Action

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Clementyne

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Coppice	97	100	77
Rising Bay	—	87	51
Fleurir	—	86	67
Merrnaa	—	—	—
Jos Rainbow	—	73	36
Apollos Angel	—	79	—
Delayed Action	—	63	—
Clementyne	—	25	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Coppice	19d ago	Fit
Rising Bay	19d ago	Fit
Apollos Angel	32d ago	Fit
Clementyne	139d ago	Long break
Fleurir	159d ago	Long break
Jos Rainbow	178d ago	Long break
Delayed Action	238d ago	Long break
Merrnaa	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.