Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:45

Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2023-05-08

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,245

Winning Time 1m 12.23s (slow by 1.83s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Doctor Khan Junior (GB) Harry Russell · Geoff Oldroyd	33/1	Won
2nd	Lezardrieux (GB) Sam James · Grant Tuer	10/1	1.75
3rd	Thaki (IRE) Phil Dennis · Katie Scott	5/1	1
4th	Jems Bond (GB) David Nolan · Alan Brown	7/2F	.5
5th	Redzone (GB) Alex Fielding · Bryan Smart	17/2	0.2
6th	Tathmeen (IRE) Cam Hardie · Antony Brittain	12/1	.5
7th	Hilary's Boy (GB) Luke Morris · Michael Appleby	8/1	2.75
8th	Bayraat (GB) Barry McHugh · Tom Tate	11/1	1
9th	Emeralds Pride (GB) Connor Beasley · Michael Dods	12/1	0.3
10th	Gowanlad (GB) Madi Patzelt · Philip Kirby	22/1	1.75
11th	Secret Daay (GB) Franny Norton · David Thompson	66/1	0.3
12th	Eldeyaar (IRE) Ben Robinson · Antony Brittain	14/1	5.5

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (13)	Jems Bond Chestnut J:David Nolan T:Alan Brown	J:David Nolan T:Alan Brown	133	p	183137	63	78	71	10d	—	—	0	15.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Three course wins this year; latest turf run best ignored; leading contender
5 (2)	Thaki Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Katie Scott	J:Phil Dennis T:Katie Scott	134	t	372763	64	77	46	4d	—	—	0	11.3	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Conditions to suit and he has run two sound races for his new yard this spring
10 (3)	Mumcat Bay J:Shane Gray T:Jacqueline Coward	J:Shane Gray T:Jacqueline Coward	132	h	-23025	62	76	66	25d	—	—	+2	11.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Hard puller; handles conditions but she's always a risky betting proposition
14 (11)	Hilarys Boy Bay J:Luke Morris T:Michael Appleby	J:Luke Morris T:Michael Appleby	122	tp	106-86	52	74	57	69d	—	—	-6	3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Four wins for former yard; quite possible new trainer can coax more from him; Tapeta fine
NR (4)	Athollblair Boy Chestnut J:Alex Jary(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	137	p	418515	67	76	55	35d	—	—	+6	16.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Two C&D wins this year, impressing on penultimate start; return to Class 6 can help
2 (1)	Bayraat Bay J:Barry McHugh T:Tom Tate	J:Barry McHugh T:Tom Tate	135	—	4240-4	65	77	65	38d	—	—	-3	6.3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Has shown promise on Tapeta; perhaps sharper for his reappearance; time to do better
11 (10)	Tathmeen Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	J:Cam Hardie T:Antony Brittain	131	p	853284	61	77	65	20d	—	—	0	8.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Four 6f wins over the winter, two here; still feasibly treated; one to consider
4 (9)	Lezardrieux Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	135	—	01048-	65	79	65	195d	—	—	+1	9	2.50/1	11 9%
Returns from a break at a realistic level; yard going along nicely; check the betting
9 (5)	Eldeyaar Brown J:Ben Robinson T:Antony Brittain	J:Ben Robinson T:Antony Brittain	132	—	61999-	62	78	71	185d	—	—	0	8.4	2.25/1	10 10%
Progressive on AW last summer; more to come this year but could well come on for this
3 (12)	Redzone Bay J:Alex Fielding(7) T:Bryan Smart	J:Alex Fielding(7) T:Bryan Smart	135	p	200-40	65	80	55	9d	—	—	-2	6.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Below par on turf latest but down in class and he's the type to bounce back quickly
6 (6)	Emeralds Pride Brown J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	133	—	43346-	63	78	-	250d	—	—	0	7.9	2.50/1	11 9%
Won fresh last spring; chance on best handicap form; headgear left off; AW debut
13 (7)	Gowanlad Bay J:Madi Patzelt(7) T:Philip Kirby	J:Madi Patzelt(7) T:Philip Kirby	129	tb	706-00	59	66	49	16d	—	—	-1	3.3	6.75/1	28 4%
Tumbled down the weights; new accessories need to spark a revival
8 (8)	Doctor Khan Junior Bay J:Harry Russell(3) T:Geoff Oldroyd	J:Harry Russell(3) T:Geoff Oldroyd	132	v	786-0	62	66	-	21d	0W/1P 1 run	0W/1P 1 run	-1	4.4	8.00/1	33 3%
Out the back on handicap debut last month; now visored and down in class; risky
12 (14)	Secret Daay Bay J:Franny Norton T:David Thompson	J:Franny Norton T:David Thompson	130	—	05038/	60	71	-	594d	—	—	+2	5.7	6.75/1	28 4%
Promise here at two for M Dods; no headgear today and 594-day absence to overcome

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Jems Bond	4	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Thaki	6	6	11/2	11/2	6/1
Mumcat	8	8	7	15/2	15/2
Hilarys Boy	15/2	9	17/2	8	9/1
Athollblair Boy	13/2	17/2	17/2	8	17/2
Bayraat	8	9	17/2	8	9/1
Tathmeen	8	11/1	10	11	11
Lezardrieux	11	9	17/2	9	9
Eldeyaar	10	17/2	8	9	17/2
Redzone	10	10	17/2	9	10/1
Emeralds Pride	11	10	9	9	9
Gowanlad	28	22	20	22	22
Doctor Khan Junior	33	16	14	16	16
Secret Daay	18	28	25	28	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Athollblair Boy

16.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 9 Odds: 2.9

17/2

2nd

Jems Bond

15.7

OR: 3.3 Form: 8 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Thaki

11.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 4.5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Mumcat

11.1

OR: 3 Form: 5.4 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Lezardrieux

OR: 3.8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.2

Tathmeen

8.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 3.4 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Eldeyaar

8.4

OR: 3 Form: 3 Odds: 2.4

Emeralds Pride

7.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.4 Odds: 2.2

Bayraat

6.3

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Redzone

6.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Secret Daay

5.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

Doctor Khan Junior

4.4

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Gowanlad

3.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Hilarys Boy

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Athollblair Boy	67	76	55
Bayraat	65	77	65
Lezardrieux	65	79	65
Redzone	65	80	55
Thaki	64	77	46
Jems Bond	63	78	71
Emeralds Pride	63	78	—
Mumcat	62	76	66
Eldeyaar	62	78	71
Doctor Khan Junior	62	66	—
Tathmeen	61	77	65
Secret Daay	60	71	—
Gowanlad	59	66	49
Hilarys Boy	52	74	57

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Thaki	4d ago	Quick return
Redzone	9d ago	Quick return
Jems Bond	10d ago	Quick return
Gowanlad	16d ago	Fit
Tathmeen	20d ago	Fit
Doctor Khan Junior	21d ago	Fit
Mumcat	25d ago	Fit
Athollblair Boy	35d ago	Fit
Bayraat	38d ago	Fit
Hilarys Boy	69d ago	Fresh
Eldeyaar	185d ago	Long break
Lezardrieux	195d ago	Long break
Emeralds Pride	250d ago	Long break
Secret Daay	594d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.