Graeme Dand @theformanalyst Celebration Handicap

Ripon

17:25

Date 2023-05-21

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,664

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (12)	Highfield Viking Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	134	—	778-1	64	78	41	22d	—	—	-5	21.5	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Stayed on dourly to win on last month's h'cap debut (6f, soft); bred to carry on improving
6 (7)	Hardy Angel Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	134	—	024-93	64	74	37	18d	—	—	-10	9.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Ran well over C&D at two and latest 3rd came in a stronger race; capable of better
3 (14)	Jack Of Clubs Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	135	—	32-554	65	77	37	10d	—	—	-7	8.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two promising handicap runs this year; down in grade and has the rail draw; more to come
7 (10)	Katar Bay J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	134	b	-43566	64	63	44	23d	—	—	-2	6.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Fair AW form over the winter; struggled since being gelded in January; new headgear today
12 (2)	Yorkstone Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	126	—	75-65	56	67	46	23d	—	—	-4	3.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Looked to find 7f on slow ground too far on handicap debut; capable of better
13 (3)	Stormy Pearl Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Ben Curtis T:Rebecca Menzies	125	p	4667-4	55	75	70	41d	—	—	-4	3.4	2.50/1	11 9%
On her winning mark but more exposed than most and others look stronger
2 (9)	Lily In The Jungle Chestnut J:Billy Garritty T:Philip Kirby	J:Billy Garritty T:Philip Kirby	136	p	27-009	66	71	-	22d	—	—	0	5.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Dual C&D winner; struggling this year but now drops in class; check betting
11 (11)	Aurora Glory Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	128	—	563-69	58	70	22	13d	—	—	-1	3	6.75/1	28 4%
Ran well on nursery debut in September but less good in two runs this year
10 (8)	Garifullina Bay J:Amie Waugh(5) T:John Davies	J:Amie Waugh(5) T:John Davies	128	—	0-54	58	76	38	17d	—	—	-1	3	6.75/1	28 4%
Better effort at Redcar 17 days ago; moves into handicaps with some potential
8 (1)	Mrs Trump Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Paul Midgley	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Paul Midgley	133	—	2556-5	63	73	61	47d	—	—	0	4.3	9.75/1	40 3%
Didn't progress after a good start for R Fahey; fair stable debut last month; more needed
1 (4)	Pedrar Bay J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	J:Dale Swift T:Scott Dixon	136	—	042-5	66	65	-	26d	—	—	+2	4.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Looked stretched by 7f on April's stable debut; drops to 6f for h'cap debut; unexposed
5 (13)	The Van Man Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ollie Pears	J:James Sullivan T:Ollie Pears	134	—	54760-	64	73	53	251d	—	—	+1	4.3	8.00/1	33 3%
Promise on first 2 starts; progress stalled after but he's down in class for his return
14 (5)	Lukla Bay J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	123	—	7044-0	53	73	57	44d	—	—	-1	1.5	9.75/1	40 3%
Two fair runs over 5f last August; well beaten on soft on return; needs a full revival
NR (6)	Tantalus Bay J:TBC T:Ben Haslam	J: T:Ben Haslam	130	—	-67535	60	76	35	39d	—	—	-2	7.1	4.75/1	20 5%
Down in the weights and ran quite well on AW in March; heavy ground not ideal latest?

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Highfield Viking	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Hardy Angel	3	10/3	3	3	3
Jack Of Clubs	11/2	11/2	5	5	5
Katar	9	9	17/2	8	17/2
Yorkstone	9	9	17/2	9	9
Stormy Pearl	11	10	9	10	10
Lily In The Jungle	16	16	14	16	16
Aurora Glory	20	25	28	25	22/1
Garifullina	28	28	22	25	28
Mrs Trump	40	25	18	22	22
Pedrar	28	33	28	28	25/1
The Van Man	25	33	33	33	33
Lukla	40	28	25	28	28
Tantalus	20	20	16	18	18

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Highfield Viking

21.5

OR: 3.5 Form: 10 Odds: 8

9/4

2nd

Hardy Angel

9.2

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Jack Of Clubs

8.2

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Tantalus

7.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.5

Katar

6.8

OR: 3.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Lily In The Jungle

5.4

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Pedrar

4.8

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Mrs Trump

4.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

The Van Man

4.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Yorkstone

3.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

17/2

Stormy Pearl

3.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Aurora Glory

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Garifullina

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Lukla

1.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lily In The Jungle	66	71	—
Pedrar	66	65	—
Jack Of Clubs	65	77	37
Highfield Viking	64	78	41
Hardy Angel	64	74	37
Katar	64	63	44
The Van Man	64	73	53
Mrs Trump	63	73	61
Tantalus	60	76	35
Aurora Glory	58	70	22
Garifullina	58	76	38
Yorkstone	56	67	46
Stormy Pearl	55	75	70
Lukla	53	73	57

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Jack Of Clubs	10d ago	Quick return
Aurora Glory	13d ago	Quick return
Garifullina	17d ago	Fit
Hardy Angel	18d ago	Fit
Highfield Viking	22d ago	Fit
Lily In The Jungle	22d ago	Fit
Katar	23d ago	Fit
Yorkstone	23d ago	Fit
Pedrar	26d ago	Fit
Tantalus	39d ago	Fit
Stormy Pearl	41d ago	Fit
Lukla	44d ago	Fit
Mrs Trump	47d ago	Fresh
The Van Man	251d ago	Long break