Racing Welfare Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div II) – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

19:22

Racing Welfare Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div II)

Date 2023-05-25

Distance 1m

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,940

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (3)	Fly Zone Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Sir Michael Stoute	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Sir Michael Stoute	130	—	0-2	-	85	44	23d	—	—	-27	21.3	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Improved from his debut when second at Yarmouth this month; high on the list
10 (4)	Mubhijah Chestnut J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	125	h	323-27	80	83	13	36d	—	—	-5	12.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Placed in four of her six starts, becoming exposed and vulnerable to an improver
6 (11)	Leading Lion Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Cieren Fallon T:John & Thady Gosden	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-11	4.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Could have been drawn better, but still worth monitoring in the market on debut
11 (8)	Nigiri Chestnut J:Rob Hornby T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rob Hornby T:Ralph Beckett	125	—	4-	-	71	-	230d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Looked in need of the run when fourth on her Newmarket debut last October; nicely bred
4 (1)	Covert Legend Bay J:Harry Burns(3) T:Joseph Parr	J:Harry Burns(3) T:Joseph Parr	130	—	46	-	76	13	23d	—	—	-5	1.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Some ability in two starts, but handicaps over further may be more his thing after this
2 (5)	Royal Dubai Bay J:Andrea Atzeni T:Marco Botti	J:Andrea Atzeni T:Marco Botti	137	—	1-8	-	84	87	132d	—	—	+4	8.2	5.25/1	22 5%
Impressive on Meydan debut but tailed off second time; watch market on stable debut
9 (9)	Louaizeh Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette(3) T:James Ferguson	J:Benoit De La Sayette(3) T:James Ferguson	125	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	9.75/1	40 3%
Respected stable can get them ready first time and well worth a market check
7 (2)	Mathematician Bay J:Raul Da Silva T:Roger Varian	J:Raul Da Silva T:Roger Varian	130	h	—	-	60	35	16d	—	—	-2	0.8	16.25/1	66 2%
Last of 11 on his Lingfield debut; looks the stable second string again
1 (7)	Dotties Star Bay J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Pat Phelan	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Pat Phelan	142	—	45	-	67	-	19d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Third in two of three bumper runs, but well held in two Flat starts at around 1m on turf
3 (10)	Beau Vintage Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Tom Clover	J:Ross Coakley T:Tom Clover	130	—	6-0	-	59	34	22d	—	—	-1	0.4	16.25/1	66 2%
Well held in first two starts; can be hadicapped after this
8 (6)	Show Me The Wire Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Marco Ghiani T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	130	—	70	-	8	-	26d	—	—	-1	0.2	74.75/1	300 0%
Tailed off in two starts on turf; no appeal

Horse	bet365	Coral
Fly Zone	11/10	11/8
Mubhijah	10/3	10/3
Leading Lion	5	9/2
Nigiri	9/2	5
Covert Legend	12	11
Royal Dubai	22	18
Louaizeh	40	33
Mathematician	66	50
Dotties Star	66	66
Beau Vintage	66	66
Show Me The Wire	300	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Fly Zone

21.3

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 16.3

11/8

2nd

Mubhijah

12.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

10/3

3rd

Royal Dubai

8.2

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 1.2

Leading Lion

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Nigiri

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Covert Legend

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Mathematician

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Louaizeh

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Dotties Star

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Beau Vintage

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Show Me The Wire

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

300

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mubhijah	80	83	13
Fly Zone	—	85	44
Leading Lion	—	—	—
Nigiri	—	71	—
Covert Legend	—	76	13
Royal Dubai	—	84	87
Louaizeh	—	—	—
Mathematician	—	60	35
Dotties Star	—	67	—
Beau Vintage	—	59	34
Show Me The Wire	—	8	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Mathematician	16d ago	Fit
Dotties Star	19d ago	Fit
Beau Vintage	22d ago	Fit
Fly Zone	23d ago	Fit
Covert Legend	23d ago	Fit
Show Me The Wire	26d ago	Fit
Mubhijah	36d ago	Fit
Royal Dubai	132d ago	Long break
Nigiri	230d ago	Long break
Leading Lion	—	—
Louaizeh	—	—