Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap – Wolverhampton (AW)

Wolverhampton (AW)

14:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

Date 2023-07-11

Distance 1m1f104y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,873

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (10)	Tiffany Bay J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	137	—	8-71	72	81	55	15d	—	—	-9	11.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Likely there's more to come, especially now she's handicapping and handed a stiffer test
10 (7)	Mathematician Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	J:Jack Mitchell T:Roger Varian	130	h	066	65	78	44	28d	—	—	-10	9.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Big prices for three starts to date (7f-1m); would want to see some support this time
4 (2)	Outgun Grey J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	134	—	453-3	69	79	53	26d	—	—	-1	11.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Pleasing comeback, faring best in his group despite pulling hard; open to improvement
5 (6)	Im Too Tired Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Harry & Roger Charlton	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Harry & Roger Charlton	133	p	84-54	68	79	56	22d	—	—	-2	6.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Yard enjoying a good spell and he ran well back from a break here last time; considered
3 (4)	Roar Emotion Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	135	—	044-10	70	78	60	53d	—	—	-1	7.2	2.50/1	11 9%
Two AW (Polytrack) efforts much better than his three turf runs; needs to settle better
8 (11)	Paradise Row Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:William Knight	J:Callum Shepherd T:William Knight	130	—	421	65	80	56	19d	—	—	+11	19.5	2.25/1	10 10%
Better with each of her three starts and looks to begin handicap life on a workable mark
NR (8)	Musterion Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:John Butler	J:Hollie Doyle T:John Butler	120	—	868225	55	78	61	13d	—	—	+1	9.6	2.50/1	11 9%
Exposed maiden who's had her chances in lesser handicaps this summer; looks vulnerable
2 (5)	Wadacre Gomez Bay J:Franny Norton T:Charlie Johnston	J:Franny Norton T:Charlie Johnston	135	—	62167	70	80	57	46d	—	—	+4	14.4	2.00/1	9 11%
The return to Tapeta (won his novice in the spring) should help down 2lb; watch the market
7 (3)	Fleur De Mer Grey J:Ben Curtis T:Hugo Palmer	J:Ben Curtis T:Hugo Palmer	131	—	8-38	66	77	-	32d	—	—	-1	5.9	2.75/1	12 8%
Stiffer test should suit (half-sister to a 1m4f winner here); watch the market
9 (9)	Eagle Eyed Tom Bay J:Dane O'Neill T:Charles Hills	J:Dane O'Neill T:Charles Hills	130	—	479	65	74	18	69d	—	—	-2	5.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Hasn't offered a huge amount in three starts to date and will need to settle better
6 (1)	Mirabello Bay Chestnut J:Liam Keniry T:J S Moore	J:Liam Keniry T:J S Moore	132	—	136445	67	87	70	15d	—	—	+2	5.8	8.00/1	33 3%
4-8 on the AW, 0-10 on turf, so the return here (2-4) ought to help; is exposed though

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tiffany	3	3	11/4	11/4	11/4
Mathematician	10/3	4	7/2	3	7/2
Outgun	6	13/2	6	6	6
Im Too Tired	9	9	8	8	9/1
Roar Emotion	11	10	17/2	9	9
Paradise Row	10	9	17/2	9	9
Musterion	11	11	10	10	10
Wadacre Gomez	9	15/2	7	15/2	15/2
Fleur De Mer	12	12	11	12	12
Eagle Eyed Tom	9	16	14	14	16
Mirabello Bay	33	28	22	22	22/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Paradise Row

19.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 13.5 Odds: 2.2

2nd

Wadacre Gomez

14.4

OR: 5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.9

3rd

Tiffany

11.7

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

11/4

Outgun

11.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Musterion

9.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 6 Odds: 2.4

Mathematician

9.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Roar Emotion

7.2

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Im Too Tired

6.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Fleur De Mer

5.9

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Eagle Eyed Tom

5.9

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Mirabello Bay

5.8

OR: 4.3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tiffany	72	81	55
Roar Emotion	70	78	60
Wadacre Gomez	70	80	57
Outgun	69	79	53
Im Too Tired	68	79	56
Mirabello Bay	67	87	70
Fleur De Mer	66	77	—
Mathematician	65	78	44
Paradise Row	65	80	56
Eagle Eyed Tom	65	74	18
Musterion	55	78	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Musterion	13d ago	Quick return
Tiffany	15d ago	Fit
Mirabello Bay	15d ago	Fit
Paradise Row	19d ago	Fit
Im Too Tired	22d ago	Fit
Outgun	26d ago	Fit
Mathematician	28d ago	Fit
Fleur De Mer	32d ago	Fit
Wadacre Gomez	46d ago	Fresh
Roar Emotion	53d ago	Fresh
Eagle Eyed Tom	69d ago	Fresh