Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

19:30

Unibet Support Safer Gambling Handicap

Date 2023-08-16

Distance 7f

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £6,281

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (5)	Harry Magnus Bay J:Ryan Moore T:Charles Hills	J:Ryan Moore T:Charles Hills	134	t	-21156	83	90	80	60d	—	—	+5	22.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
C&D winner who is well treated on his best form; needs serious consideration
10 (9)	Dionysian Chestnut J:Hector Crouch T:Stuart Williams	J:Hector Crouch T:Stuart Williams	133	—	11-006	82	91	88	67d	—	—	-2	12	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two 1m novice wins here last year; well held on turf this year; gelded; return to AW a +
8 (2)	Gulmarg Bay J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	134	p	-33327	83	90	77	48d	—	—	+4	19.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Flopped at Newmarket last time but he had been threatening beforehand; headgear added now
5 (6)	Zu Run Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	135	p	2-9740	84	92	-	18d	—	—	+4	15.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
7f AW winner one year ago; pick of this year's form gives him claims; headgear on today
2 (4)	Ernies Valentine Grey J:Cieren Fallon T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Cieren Fallon T:Paul & Oliver Cole	139	tb	6-7327	83	95	84	53d	—	—	+1	11.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Below par down to 6f last time; earlier 7f form gives him place claims; good record on AW
7 (8)	Lord Uhtred Bay J:William Carson T:Charles Hills	J:William Carson T:Charles Hills	134	—	321-56	83	91	-	97d	—	—	+1	10.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Unplaced in two stronger handicaps on soft in spring; gelded since; C&D winner; yard run 2
9 (3)	Tahitian Prince Bay J:Alec Voikhansky(5) T:Richard Hannon	J:Alec Voikhansky(5) T:Richard Hannon	134	p	-57539	78	92	78	20d	—	—	+3	11.6	2.00/1	9 11%
Three 1m wins here in 2021; drawn a blank since; down in weights but 7f a question mark
NR (12)	Soar Above Grey Roan J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	140	—	-83332	84	90	64	25d	—	—	+11	20.5	2.50/1	11 9%
Conditions to suit and he's likely to make another bold bid
NR (13)	Brasil Power Bay J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:George Boughey	J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:George Boughey	133	tp	0-1735	77	94	71	47d	—	—	-3	10.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Won off this mark on stable debut but he hasn't kicked on since; drawn widest
3 (10)	Zero Carbon Bay J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	138	—	065198	82	91	56	20d	—	—	+9	14.6	3.25/1	14 7%
3-5 on AW, including game C&D win in June; below par on turf since but he's a contender
4 (1)	Follow Your Heart Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Mark Loughnane	J:Ray Dawson T:Mark Loughnane	137	t	111700	81	90	78	19d	—	—	+10	13.8	4.75/1	20 5%
High in weights after productive winter; below par on turf this summer; this more suitable
12 (11)	Hover On The Wind Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	124	b	23-328	73	90	-	25d	—	—	+3	6.7	5.25/1	22 5%
Ran poorly latest and he now has something to prove stepping back up in distance
13 (7)	Wake Up Harry Bay J:J F Egan T:Simon Dow	J:J F Egan T:Simon Dow	123	—	78-426	67	90	74	168d	—	—	+2	5.1	6.75/1	28 4%
Near miss in a 1m Class 6 in January; off since lesser run here in March; tough task

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Harry Magnus	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3
Dionysian	5	5	11/2	5	5
Gulmarg	11/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Zu Run	6	15/2	15/2	7	7
Ernies Valentine	8	15/2	15/2	7	7
Lord Uhtred	8	8	15/2	15/2	8
Tahitian Prince	9	8	8	8	8
Soar Above	9	11	10	10	SP
Brasil Power	18	16	14	16	16
Zero Carbon	12	14	12	14	14
Follow Your Heart	20	20	18	18	18
Hover On The Wind	22	22	20	22	22
Wake Up Harry	28	28	22	25	25

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Harry Magnus

22.5

OR: 8.3 Form: 9 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Soar Above

20.5

OR: 8.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.5

3rd

Gulmarg

19.2

OR: 8.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Zu Run

15.1

OR: 8.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Zero Carbon

14.6

OR: 8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.6

Follow Your Heart

13.8

OR: 7.8 Form: 5 Odds: 1.1

Dionysian

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

Tahitian Prince

11.6

OR: 7 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.5

Ernies Valentine

11.1

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Lord Uhtred

10.9

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Brasil Power

10.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.8

Hover On The Wind

6.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Wake Up Harry

5.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Zu Run	84	92	—
Soar Above	84	90	64
Harry Magnus	83	90	80
Gulmarg	83	90	77
Ernies Valentine	83	95	84
Lord Uhtred	83	91	—
Dionysian	82	91	88
Zero Carbon	82	91	56
Follow Your Heart	81	90	78
Tahitian Prince	78	92	78
Brasil Power	77	94	71
Hover On The Wind	73	90	—
Wake Up Harry	67	90	74

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Zu Run	18d ago	Fit
Follow Your Heart	19d ago	Fit
Tahitian Prince	20d ago	Fit
Zero Carbon	20d ago	Fit
Soar Above	25d ago	Fit
Hover On The Wind	25d ago	Fit
Brasil Power	47d ago	Fresh
Gulmarg	48d ago	Fresh
Ernies Valentine	53d ago	Fresh
Harry Magnus	60d ago	Fresh
Dionysian	67d ago	Fresh
Lord Uhtred	97d ago	Long break
Wake Up Harry	168d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 7f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.