Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Kempton (AW)

18:30

Date 2023-08-16

Distance 7f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,672

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (4)	Poutchek Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Roger Varian	J:Ray Dawson T:Roger Varian	128	—	3	-	84	-	26d	—	—	-17	11.9	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Inexperience evident on Newmarket debut but made good late headway; likely big improver
6 (8)	Gushing Gold Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	128	—	293	87	93	-	26d	—	—	-1	21.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Promise in all three starts and sets the standard; 7f should suit; obvious claims
1 (1)	Ahlain Bay J:Ryan Moore T:James Tate	J:Ryan Moore T:James Tate	128	—	7	-	82	-	26d	—	—	-13	5.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Promising debut over 6f last month; bred to appreciate 7f; R Moore booked; contender
2 (6)	Allonsy Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-11	4.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Half-sister to 1m4f AW winner out of G2 winner at 14.5f; yard flying; interesting newcomer
5 (7)	Charmaine Bay J:Robert Havlin T:James Fanshawe	J:Robert Havlin T:James Fanshawe	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Fine pedigree but winning 2yo newcomers for the stable are rare
10 (2)	Sattwaa Bay J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	J:Taylor Fisher(3) T:Archie Watson	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.1	6.00/1	25 4%
Dam a 7f AW winner from a good family; useful standard to aim at on debut
7 (10)	High Handed Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Brian Orourke	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Brian Orourke	128	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Half-sister to Group 1 winner Lillie Langtry amongst others; hooded for debut
4 (9)	Autumn Dream Bay J:William Carson T:Charles Hills	J:William Carson T:Charles Hills	128	—	8	-	73	-	26d	—	—	-2	0.7	12.25/1	50 2%
20-1, green & well held on last month's Newmarket debut (loose beforehand); can do better
3 (5)	Almudena Bay J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	12.25/1	50 2%
Fine middle-distance pedigree but stable's 2yos yet to get going this year
8 (3)	Modern Verse Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:David Simcock	J:Cieren Fallon T:David Simcock	128	—	96	-	75	-	11d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Finished last in 2 starts but has offered a whiff of promise; one for nurseries after this

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Poutchek	2	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8
Gushing Gold	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
Ahlain	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Allonsy	4	5	11/2	5	5
Charmaine	25	22	22	22	22
Sattwaa	25	20	22	22/1	22
High Handed	33	28	28	28	33
Autumn Dream	50	40	40	33	40
Almudena	50	40	40	28	40
Modern Verse	66	50	40	40	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Gushing Gold

21.4

OR: 9.3 Form: 5.5 Odds: 6.7

11/4

2nd

Poutchek

11.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 8.9

15/8

3rd

Ahlain

5.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Allonsy

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Charmaine

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Sattwaa

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

High Handed

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Autumn Dream

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Almudena

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Modern Verse

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Gushing Gold	87	93	—
Poutchek	—	84	—
Ahlain	—	82	—
Allonsy	—	—	—
Charmaine	—	—	—
Sattwaa	—	—	—
High Handed	—	—	—
Autumn Dream	—	73	—
Almudena	—	—	—
Modern Verse	—	75	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Modern Verse	11d ago	Quick return
Poutchek	26d ago	Fit
Gushing Gold	26d ago	Fit
Ahlain	26d ago	Fit
Autumn Dream	26d ago	Fit
Allonsy	—	—
Charmaine	—	—
Sattwaa	—	—
High Handed	—	—
Almudena	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 7f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.