Ire-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

Chelmsford (AW)

14:25

Date 2023-08-31

Distance 7f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,400

Winning Time 1m 25.21s (slow by 2.11s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Emperor's Star (FR) William Buick · Charlie Appleby	8/13F	Won
2nd	Run Boy Run (GB) Neil Callan · Richard Spencer	13/2	.5
3rd	Celtic Warrior (IRE) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	17/2	3
4th	Annafel (USA) Kieran Shoemark · John & Thady Gosden	8/1	3.25
5th	Keady Town (IRE) George Rooke · Richard Hughes	100/1	1
6th	Papagei (GB) James Doyle · James Ferguson	33/1	.5
7th	Upper Hand (IRE) Dylan Hogan · John Butler	150/1	.5
8th	Beach Point (IRE) Jefferson Smith · William Knight	80/1	1
9th	Blow Me Away (IRE) Stefano Cherchi · Stuart Williams	250/1	.5
10th	Desert Rhapsody (IRE) Ross Coakley · Simon & Ed Crisford	25/1	0.2
11th	Knight Templar (GB) Shane Kelly · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	200/1	0.05
12th	Orbital (GB) Darragh Keenan · Sir Mark Prescott Bt	50/1	.5
13th	Nukanan (IRE) Kyle Strydom · Roger Varian	13/2	.75
14th	Mad Punter (GB) Cieren Fallon · Brian Meehan	40/1	0.3
15th	By Default (USA) Marco Ghiani · Jane Chapple-Hyam	33/1	.75
16th	Spirit La Adelita (GB) J F Egan · Darryll Holland	150/1	0.05

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (3)	Emperors Star Bay J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	133	—	25	-	88	-	29d	—	—	-32	22.2	0.17/1	4/6 60%
Ran well behind a useful sort on debut; beaten at odds-on on heavy latest; contender
13 (15)	Run Boy Run Bay J:Neil Callan T:Richard Spencer	J:Neil Callan T:Richard Spencer	133	—	2	-	84	-	20d	—	—	-3	8.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Second in a newcomers' maiden at Newmarket three weeks ago; clearly has some ability
11 (7)	Nukanan b/br J:Kyle Strydom T:Roger Varian	J:Kyle Strydom T:Roger Varian	133	h	3	-	78	-	21d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Salisbury debut was full of promise; form franked since and 7f should suit; major player
1 (14)	Annafel Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-7	2.7	2.00/1	9 11%
220,000gns 2yo; dam from a good US family; top yard just 2-23 with 2yos this summer
5 (10)	Celtic Warrior Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	133	—	6	-	76	-	18d	—	—	-7	2.7	2.25/1	10 10%
Green when a never-dangerous sixth on his Leicester debut 18 days ago; can do better
6 (8)	Desert Rhapsody Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Ross Coakley T:Simon & Ed Crisford	133	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1.1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Looks the part on paper; hooded for debut; betting should be revealing
12 (16)	Papagei Chestnut J:James Doyle T:James Ferguson	J:James Doyle T:James Ferguson	133	—	7	-	69	-	20d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Much better than he could show on debut (green & met trouble); tricky draw to deal with
10 (13)	Mad Punter Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Brian Meehan	J:Cieren Fallon T:Brian Meehan	133	—	78	-	63	-	64d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.25/1	50 2%
Attracted support in two runs in June but failed to fire; still has to time to come good
4 (5)	By Default Chestnut J:Marco Ghiani T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	J:Marco Ghiani T:Jane Chapple-Hyam	133	b	5	-	53	-	68d	—	—	-2	0.6	19.75/1	80 1%
50-1 when a remote last of five at Newmarket in June (7f); headgear quickly reached for
15 (9)	Orbital Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Darragh Keenan T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Dam a well-related AW winner; yard's 2yos yet to hit the target this season
8 (6)	Keady Town Bay J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	J:George Rooke T:Richard Hughes	133	—	8	-	21	-	21d	—	—	-1	0.4	49.75/1	200 1%
33-1, green and well beaten in a Salisbury novice (6f, good) three weeks ago
2 (11)	Beach Point Brown J:Jefferson Smith T:William Knight	J:Jefferson Smith T:William Knight	133	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	37.25/1	150 1%
45,000gns half-brother to a fair 1m2f winner; hooded for debut; longer-term prospect
16 (12)	Spirit La Adelita Chestnut J:J F Egan T:Darryll Holland	J:J F Egan T:Darryll Holland	128	h	77	-	72	-	19d	—	—	-1	0.3	62.25/1	250 0%
Second run was better than her debut but she'll need another jolt of improvement to win
14 (1)	Upper Hand Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:John Butler	J:Dylan Hogan T:John Butler	133	—	4	-	49	-	14d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.25/1	250 0%
Needs to take a big step forward with his 6f debut behind him
3 (4)	Blow Me Away Chestnut J:Stefano Cherchi T:Stuart Williams	J:Stefano Cherchi T:Stuart Williams	133	t	8700	-	58	28	22d	—	—	-1	0.2	99.75/1	400 0%
Yet to beat a rival in four starts; can't be recommended
9 (2)	Knight Templar Bay J:Shane Kelly T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Shane Kelly T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	133	—	809	-	60	30	15d	—	—	-1	0.2	124.75/1	500 0%
Ran to just a modest level in three starts this summer; others have stronger claims

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Emperors Star	8/13	4/7	4/6	8/13	4/7
Run Boy Run	13/2	6	6	13/2	13/2
Nukanan	11/2	6	5	11/2	13/2
Annafel	8	8	8	8	9
Celtic Warrior	17/2	17/2	9	9	10
Desert Rhapsody	28/1	20	20	20	20
Papagei	28	33	22	33	33
Mad Punter	50	40	40	40	40
By Default	80	50	50	50	50
Orbital	66	50	50	50	50
Keady Town	200	100	100	100	100
Beach Point	150	80	80	80	80
Spirit La Adelita	250	150	150	150	150
Upper Hand	250	125	125	125	125/1
Blow Me Away	400	250	250	250	250
Knight Templar	500	200	200	200	200

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Emperors Star

22.2

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 18.7

4/6

2nd

Run Boy Run

8.3

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

3rd

Nukanan

6.6

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Annafel

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Celtic Warrior

2.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Desert Rhapsody

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

28/1

Papagei

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Mad Punter

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

By Default

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Orbital

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Keady Town

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

200

Beach Point

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150

Spirit La Adelita

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

250

Upper Hand

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250

Blow Me Away

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

400

Knight Templar

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

500

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Emperors Star	—	88	—
Run Boy Run	—	84	—
Nukanan	—	78	—
Annafel	—	—	—
Celtic Warrior	—	76	—
Desert Rhapsody	—	—	—
Papagei	—	69	—
Mad Punter	—	63	—
By Default	—	53	—
Orbital	—	—	—
Keady Town	—	21	—
Beach Point	—	—	—
Spirit La Adelita	—	72	—
Upper Hand	—	49	—
Blow Me Away	—	58	28
Knight Templar	—	60	30

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Upper Hand	14d ago	Fit
Knight Templar	15d ago	Fit
Celtic Warrior	18d ago	Fit
Spirit La Adelita	19d ago	Fit
Run Boy Run	20d ago	Fit
Papagei	20d ago	Fit
Nukanan	21d ago	Fit
Keady Town	21d ago	Fit
Blow Me Away	22d ago	Fit
Emperors Star	29d ago	Fit
Mad Punter	64d ago	Fresh
By Default	68d ago	Fresh
Annafel	—	—
Desert Rhapsody	—	—
Orbital	—	—
Beach Point	—	—