Irish Stallion Farms EBF Abergwaun Stakes (Listed Race)

Tipperary

4:20

Date 2023-09-03

Distance 5f

Class Class 1

Going Yielding

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €23,600

Runners (10)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
1 (4)	Twilight Jet b J:Leigh Roche T:M D Ocallaghan	J:Leigh Roche T:M D Ocallaghan	133	b	100-76	105	115	65	63d	—	—	-11	25.2	6/4 40%
Has the ability to win this should blinkers trigger a return to form
NR (8)	Lady Tilbury b J:TBC T:David Marnane	J: T:David Marnane	127	—	351717	94	112	88	7d	—	—	+7	26.7	7/2 22%
Probably better at 5f than the 6f over which she was below par at Naas last week
2 (1)	Dun Na Sead ch J:Gavin Ryan T:Kieran P Cotter	J:Gavin Ryan T:Kieran P Cotter	128	—	831143	90	110	101	22d	—	—	+8	27.3	7/2 22%
Consistent handicapper and current mark entitles her to a crack at this level
4 (6)	Harmony Rose b J:Ben Coen T:K J Condon	J:Ben Coen T:K J Condon	128	—	240242	86	108	89	23d	—	—	+9	19.6	15/2 12%
Again beaten by Lady Tilbury here recently and not weighted to reverse those placings
9 (9)	Maria Branwell b J:Declan McDonogh T:Joseph Patrick Obrien	J:Declan McDonogh T:Joseph Patrick Obrien	127	tp	-48248	91	111	87	43d	—	—	+4	16.1	8/1 11%
Cheekpieces turned to after two lesser runs but too talented to discount
5 (10)	Lokada gr J:Colin Keane T:M D Ocallaghan	J:Colin Keane T:M D Ocallaghan	128	heb	-24359	82	104	82	63d	—	—	+4	13	9 11%
Has run well in a Listed race but others look more threatening
6 (3)	Amazon Lady b J:W J Lee T:W Mccreery	J:W J Lee T:W Mccreery	127	—	1645	84	105	83	88d	—	—	+7	13.2	14 7%
Lightly raced and closely matched with Maria Branwell on their Curragh encounter
3 (5)	Gabriellas Spirit b J:Shane Foley T:K J Condon	J:Shane Foley T:K J Condon	128	tp	-16310	80	101	82	22d	—	—	+13	20.1	12 8%
Running well prior to last time when there were excuses; this demands a career best
NR (7)	So Majestic b J:TBC T:Miss Kate Mcgivern	J: T:Miss Kate Mcgivern	127	t	110907	71	95	80	5d	—	—	-23	22.5	66 2%
Difficult to envisage her stopping the rot here when likely to be outclassed
7 (2)	Coralillo b J:Chris Hayes T:Eddie & Patrick Harty	J:Chris Hayes T:Eddie & Patrick Harty	127	tb	8-9009	87	110	66	7d	—	—	+7	10	50 2%
She's not progressing and hasn't been looking the easiest of rides either

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Twilight Jet	11/8	6/4	5/4	11/8	5/4
Lady Tilbury	7/2	10/3	10/3	7/2	7/2
Dun Na Sead	7/2	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2
Harmony Rose	7/1	6/1	7	7	15/2
Maria Branwell	7/1	11/2	7/1	7	8/1
Lokada	9	9	8/1	8/1	8/1
Amazon Lady	11	11/1	12	12/1	14
Gabriellas Spirit	12	11/1	11	11/1	12
So Majestic	66	66	66	66	66
Coralillo	50	28	40	40	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Dun Na Sead

27.3

OR: 10 Form: 11.6 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Lady Tilbury

26.7

OR: 11 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Twilight Jet

25.2

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 11.4

6/4

So Majestic

22.5

OR: 5.3 Form: 2 Odds: 15.3

Gabriellas Spirit

20.1

OR: 7.5 Form: 10.5 Odds: 2.1

Harmony Rose

19.6

OR: 9 Form: 7.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Maria Branwell

16.1

OR: 10.3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 3.3

8/1

Amazon Lady

13.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.7

Lokada

OR: 8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.5

Coralillo

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Twilight Jet Top Rated	105	115	65
Lady Tilbury	94	112	88
Maria Branwell	91	111	87
Dun Na Sead	90	110	101
Coralillo	87	110	66
Harmony Rose	86	108	89
Amazon Lady	84	105	83
Lokada	82	104	82
Gabriellas Spirit	80	101	82
So Majestic	71	95	80

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
So Majestic	5d ago	Quick return
Lady Tilbury	7d ago	Quick return
Coralillo	7d ago	Quick return
Dun Na Sead	22d ago	Fit
Gabriellas Spirit	22d ago	Fit
Harmony Rose	23d ago	Fit
Maria Branwell	43d ago	Fit
Twilight Jet	63d ago	Fresh
Lokada	63d ago	Fresh
Amazon Lady	88d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Amazon Lady	Prominent
Twilight Jet	Mid-Pack
Lokada	Mid-Pack

Inferred from horse comments. 3 of 10 runners classified.