Unibet Horserace Betting-Operator Of The Year Nursery Handicap (Jockey Club Nursery Qualifier)

Kempton (AW)

18:00

Date 2023-09-06

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (1)	States Bay J:William Buick T:Richard Hughes	J:William Buick T:Richard Hughes	137	b	636884	62	68	55	20d	—	—	-11	9.8	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Encouraging AW debut at Wolverhampton last month; interesting with William Buick booked
3 (3)	Big Brown Bear Bay J:Georgia Dobie(3) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Georgia Dobie(3) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	137	p	625232	62	65	-	3d	—	—	-1	19.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Runner-up in three of his six starts; possibilities if he takes well to headgear
4 (9)	Charlie Mason Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:David Evans	J:Oisin Murphy T:David Evans	137	v	583322	62	67	25	9d	—	—	+4	17.9	1.00/1	5 20%
Has form figures of 3322 since handicapping; threatening to win a race of this nature
7 (4)	Pinpoint Bay J:Thomas Greatrex T:Richard Hannon	J:Thomas Greatrex T:Richard Hannon	134	—	79713	59	65	-	23d	—	—	+4	15.6	1.25/1	6 17%
Improved form since switched to nurseries, winning at Bath then third at Windsor
1 (2)	Black Jack Davey Brown J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Rachel Cook & John Bridger	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Rachel Cook & John Bridger	137	—	684	62	60	-	42d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
May be capable of improvement now handicapping and switched to new trip/surface
5 (7)	Belle Storm Bay J:Clifford Lee T:James Tate	J:Clifford Lee T:James Tate	136	—	3385	61	61	36	26d	—	—	0	7.1	2.50/1	11 9%
Latest effort suggests she may improve for this drop to sprinting
9 (6)	Damia Chestnut J:Kevin Stott T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Kevin Stott T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	129	h	77946	54	66	37	20d	—	—	-4	2.7	2.75/1	12 8%
May improve for this return to 6f and fitting of hood
6 (8)	Anglesey Lad Bay J:David Egan T:David Loughnane	J:David Egan T:David Loughnane	135	—	497	60	60	-	23d	—	—	-1	3.7	4.75/1	20 5%
Possible improver now handicapping on AW; similar type to Black Jack Davey
8 (5)	Jungle Dance Bay J:Jason Watson T:John Butler	J:Jason Watson T:John Butler	133	—	38500	58	60	46	28d	—	—	+1	3.1	16.25/1	66 2%
Regressive maiden; has finished last in both nursery attempts

Horse	bet365	Coral
States	3	11/4
Big Brown Bear	7/2	7/2
Charlie Mason	5	5
Pinpoint	6	6
Black Jack Davey	13/2	6
Belle Storm	10	11
Damia	12	12
Anglesey Lad	20	20
Jungle Dance	66	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Big Brown Bear

19.8

OR: 3 Form: 10.6 Odds: 6.2

7/2

2nd

Charlie Mason

17.9

OR: 3 Form: 10.9 Odds: 4

3rd

Pinpoint

15.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

States

9.8

OR: 3 Form: 0.6 Odds: 6.2

11/4

Belle Storm

7.1

OR: 2.8 Form: 2.4 Odds: 1.9

Black Jack Davey

6.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Anglesey Lad

3.7

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Jungle Dance

3.1

OR: 2 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.5

Damia

2.7

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
States	62	68	55
Big Brown Bear	62	65	—
Charlie Mason	62	67	25
Black Jack Davey	62	60	—
Belle Storm	61	61	36
Anglesey Lad	60	60	—
Pinpoint	59	65	—
Jungle Dance	58	60	46
Damia	54	66	37

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Big Brown Bear	3d ago	Quick return
Charlie Mason	9d ago	Quick return
States	20d ago	Fit
Damia	20d ago	Fit
Pinpoint	23d ago	Fit
Anglesey Lad	23d ago	Fit
Belle Storm	26d ago	Fit
Jungle Dance	28d ago	Fit
Black Jack Davey	42d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.