Alan Rae Smith Errant Memorial Nursery Handicap – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

15:47

Alan Rae Smith Errant Memorial Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-09-16

Distance 7f1y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,245

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (7)	Tropical Air Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	7533	50	61	-	12d	—	—	-10	11.3	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Still early days but would like to have seen more from him on his nursery debut latest.
2 (5)	Rising Force Chestnut J:Dylan Hogan T:Robert Eddery	J:Dylan Hogan T:Robert Eddery	134	—	070791	54	59	50	14d	—	—	-1	16	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Up 4lb for his Chelmsford win (7f) but may not need to find much more to follow up.
8 (8)	Birkie Boy Bay J:Olivia Tubb(7) T:J S Moore	J:Olivia Tubb(7) T:J S Moore	125	—	643432	45	59	-	5d	—	—	-3	12.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Thereabouts several times without showing much improvement; switches to AW.
1 (9)	Tenyatta Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	137	—	50504	57	57	41	5d	—	—	-7	5.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Showed minor promise on debut but she's been unable to better that in four more starts.
4 (3)	Call Me The Breeze Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Walker	J:Hector Crouch T:Ed Walker	132	—	890	52	50	18	18d	—	—	-9	4.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Well beaten in all three starts and based on that form this initial mark looks stiff.
5 (1)	Brooklyn Express Chestnut J:Luke Morris T:Amy Murphy	J:Luke Morris T:Amy Murphy	131	b	6705P3	51	60	41	8d	—	—	-4	4.6	2.13/1	17/2 11%
May be capable of picking up one of these but will need improvement to defy this mark.
9 (10)	Clear Justice Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Gary Moore	J:Callum Shepherd T:Gary Moore	125	p	0889	45	34	20	14d	—	—	-4	1.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Supported on nursery debut at Chelmsford latest, when he was too free; much more needed.
7 (11)	Villas Bullet Bay J:William Carver(3) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:William Carver(3) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	127	—	8774	47	54	45	33d	—	—	-2	0.9	6.75/1	28 4%
Well beaten on her nursery debut; since changed hands; watching brief advised.
11 (6)	Mighty Pearl Bay J:Raul Da Silva T:Adam West	J:Raul Da Silva T:Adam West	125	b	80758	45	49	-	12d	—	—	-2	0.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Well beaten in all starts, the last two in nurseries; blinkers go on but can only watch.
3 (2)	Tentatively Bay J:Tom Queally T:Jamie Osborne	J:Tom Queally T:Jamie Osborne	133	—	86997	53	43	28	8d	—	—	-1	1.5	9.75/1	40 3%
Well beaten in recent starts; likely to need further assistance from the handicapper.
10 (4)	Heads Gone Pal Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Tony Carroll	J:Cieren Fallon T:Tony Carroll	125	—	0897	45	46	-	12d	—	—	-2	0.7	12.25/1	50 2%
Poor form at big odds on all four starts, the latest on his nursery debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tropical Air	11/4	3	3	3	11/4
Rising Force	9/2	4/1	4/1	4/1	4
Birkie Boy	5/1	5/1	5	11/2	5
Tenyatta	13/2	6	13/2	6	13/2
Call Me The Breeze	11/2	5/1	11/2	11/2	5
Brooklyn Express	9	17/2	17/2	17/2	9
Clear Justice	16	16/1	16	16	18
Villas Bullet	28	25/1	25	25/1	25
Mighty Pearl	40/1	33	33/1	33	33
Tentatively	33	40	33	33/1	33
Heads Gone Pal	50	33/1	40/1	33/1	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Rising Force

OR: 1 Form: 10 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Birkie Boy

12.4

OR: 0 Form: 8 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Tropical Air

11.3

OR: 0 Form: 5.1 Odds: 6.2

11/4

Tenyatta

5.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Brooklyn Express

4.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 2 Odds: 2.4

17/2

Call Me The Breeze

4.1

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Tentatively

1.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Clear Justice

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Villas Bullet

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Mighty Pearl

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Heads Gone Pal

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tenyatta	57	57	41
Rising Force	54	59	50
Tentatively	53	43	28
Call Me The Breeze	52	50	18
Brooklyn Express	51	60	41
Tropical Air	50	61	—
Villas Bullet	47	54	45
Birkie Boy	45	59	—
Clear Justice	45	34	20
Mighty Pearl	45	49	—
Heads Gone Pal	45	46	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Birkie Boy	5d ago	Quick return
Tenyatta	5d ago	Quick return
Brooklyn Express	8d ago	Quick return
Tentatively	8d ago	Quick return
Tropical Air	12d ago	Quick return
Mighty Pearl	12d ago	Quick return
Heads Gone Pal	12d ago	Quick return
Rising Force	14d ago	Fit
Clear Justice	14d ago	Fit
Call Me The Breeze	18d ago	Fit
Villas Bullet	33d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 7f1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.