Stuart Michael Associates Handicap – Newbury

Newbury

17:20

Stuart Michael Associates Handicap

Date 2023-09-22

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 4

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £6,621

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (8)	Concorde Chestnut J:David Probert T:George Boughey	J:David Probert T:George Boughey	136	—	-12117	86	92	68	89d	—	—	+5	33.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Off since June when good to firm may have been against him; one to note
5 (2)	Sayf Al Dawla Bay J:David Egan T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:David Egan T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	138	—	4133/1	83	92	79	57d	—	—	-3	27.6	0.25/1	2 50%
Off 632 days before Sandown (1m2f, soft) this July but was backed into favouritism and won
2 (6)	Dubai Souq Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Saeed Bin Suroor	J:Kevin Stott T:Saeed Bin Suroor	139	p	577-24	84	94	56	54d	—	—	-4	13.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
317 days off before 2nd at Windsor in May; upset in stalls in July and below form latest
NR (1)	Amor Vincit Omnia Bay J:TBC T:Harry Eustace	J: T:Harry Eustace	138	—	043-67	83	96	44	134d	—	—	0	11.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Best results on soft/heavy; very slow start in May latest so it looked a creditable effort
3 (5)	Fantasy Believer Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	138	—	235138	83	93	79	15d	—	—	+7	19.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
1m2f win at Newmarket in July; needs better than last two outings; slowly away on latest
7 (3)	Entrancement Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:David Menuisier	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:David Menuisier	129	—	-41207	79	90	54	23d	—	—	+7	15.1	2.25/1	10 10%
Has sometimes gone well in the mud; probably needs not just a revival but a career best
NR (4)	Elshaameq Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Kevin Frost	J:NON-RUNNER T:Kevin Frost	121	t	-00454	66	-	-	14d	—	—	-46	24	—	—
Easily his three best efforts have come on AW, including latest; non-runner
1 (7)	Civil Law Grey J:Lewis Edmunds T:Roger Teal	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Roger Teal	141	—	754494	86	90	-	15d	—	—	+5	10.4	5.25/1	22 5%
Has found the AW more fruitful; first turf run since making no impact twice last summer
9 (9)	City Cyclone Chestnut J:Kieran O'Neill T:Tony Carroll	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Tony Carroll	117	—	335835	67	90	81	30d	—	—	+4	8.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Maiden, with fair form on his day; back up in trip but others preferred

Horse	bet365	Coral
Concorde	9/4	5/2
Sayf Al Dawla	2	2
Dubai Souq	9/2	9/2
Amor Vincit Omnia	7	13/2
Fantasy Believer	7	13/2
Entrancement	10	10
Elshaameq	SP	SP
Civil Law	22	16
City Cyclone	25	20

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Concorde

33.4

OR: 9 Form: 15.5 Odds: 8.9

5/2

2nd

Sayf Al Dawla

27.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 10 Odds: 9.4

3rd

Elshaameq

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 20

—

Fantasy Believer

19.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 7.7 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Entrancement

15.1

OR: 7.3 Form: 5.5 Odds: 2.4

Dubai Souq

13.7

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Amor Vincit Omnia

11.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Civil Law

10.4

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

City Cyclone

8.2

OR: 4.3 Form: 2.7 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Concorde	86	92	68
Civil Law	86	90	—
Dubai Souq	84	94	56
Sayf Al Dawla	83	92	79
Amor Vincit Omnia	83	96	44
Fantasy Believer	83	93	79
Entrancement	79	90	54
City Cyclone	67	90	81
Elshaameq	66	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Elshaameq	14d ago	Fit
Fantasy Believer	15d ago	Fit
Civil Law	15d ago	Fit
Entrancement	23d ago	Fit
City Cyclone	30d ago	Fit
Dubai Souq	54d ago	Fresh
Sayf Al Dawla	57d ago	Fresh
Concorde	89d ago	Fresh
Amor Vincit Omnia	134d ago	Long break