Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap (Div I) – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

16:45

Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap (Div I)

Date 2023-10-05

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 2m 7.45s (slow by 6.15s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Magical Dragon (IRE) David Probert · Patrick Chamings	17/2	Won
2nd	Iftikhaar (IRE) Daniel Muscutt · J R Jenkins	12/1	0.05
3rd	Young Winston (GB) Luke Morris · Tony Carroll	17/2	0.3
4th	Starry Eyes (USA) Billy Loughnane · Brett Johnson	6/1	1
5th	Lord Clenaghcastle (IRE) Callum Shepherd · Adam West	9/2J	1
6th	Star Of Epsom (GB) Paddy Bradley · Pat Phelan	9/2J	0.2
7th	Laurentia (IRE) William Carson · Laura Mongan	16/1	0.3
8th	She's A Mirage (GB) Neil Callan · David Evans	6/1	.75
9th	Gosmore (GB) Nicola Currie · Henry Candy	22/1	0.3
10th	Roman Tempest (FR) J F Egan · Simon Dow	5/1	2.5
11th	On The Nose (GB) Rhys Clutterbuck · Mark Hoad	66/1	11

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (2)	Star Of Epsom Bay J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Pat Phelan	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Pat Phelan	135	—	100157	52	66	42	29d	—	—	-6	9.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Three C&D wins since November; sharper for recent run; one to take seriously
5 (10)	Lord Clenaghcastle Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Adam West	J:Callum Shepherd T:Adam West	131	h	406023	48	63	50	19d	—	—	-4	10.5	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two promising runs for new yard; stamina not assured but 1m2f looks worth a go; contender
4 (1)	Shes A Mirage Bay J:Neil Callan T:David Evans	J:Neil Callan T:David Evans	132	—	741417	53	66	43	21d	—	—	+2	14.4	1.00/1	5 20%
Unexposed over 1m2f and she's won two of her last four; has to enter calculations
2 (9)	Starry Eyes Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:Brett Johnson	J:Billy Loughnane T:Brett Johnson	134	—	454154	51	64	55	21d	—	—	-3	8.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Some of her 1m form this year gives her claims but 0-7 (unplaced all runs) over 1m2f+
7 (8)	Young Winston Bay J:Luke Morris T:Tony Carroll	J:Luke Morris T:Tony Carroll	129	—	492347	46	65	27	14d	—	—	-4	5.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Hard to win with; good 2nd on stable debut in July but he hasn't built on it since
6 (6)	Magical Dragon Bay J:David Probert T:Patrick Chamings	J:David Probert T:Patrick Chamings	129	v	485535	46	66	26	57d	—	—	-5	5	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Poor strike-rate but conditions fine & he's running well enough to warrant a second look
8 (4)	Roman Tempest Bay J:J F Egan T:Simon Dow	J:J F Egan T:Simon Dow	129	—	-97735	46	62	48	50d	—	—	-5	4.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
The odd promising effort but he'll need to raise his game to win, even at this low level
3 (11)	Iftikhaar Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:J R Jenkins	J:Daniel Muscutt T:J R Jenkins	133	—	-09088	50	63	49	14d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Exposed maiden; not beaten far last time but in a weak race; drawn widest; opposable
9 (3)	Laurentia Bay J:William Carson T:Laura Mongan	J:William Carson T:Laura Mongan	129	—	697086	46	69	49	21d	—	—	-3	1.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Not beaten far at Chelmsford last time (1m) but others appeal more, even at this low level
11 (5)	Gosmore Bay J:Nicola Currie T:Henry Candy	J:Nicola Currie T:Henry Candy	125	—	0-707	46	50	-	34d	—	—	-2	0.9	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Not living up to her pedigree; too soon to write off completely but not easily fancied
10 (7)	On The Nose Bay J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Mark Hoad	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Mark Hoad	129	b	754-75	46	64	-	17d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
2 heavy defeats for new yard after layoff; blinkers & R Clutterbuck could spark extra here

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Star Of Epsom	9/2	4	4/1	4	4
Lord Clenaghcastle	11/2	11/2	5/1	11/2	5/1
Shes A Mirage	5	5	5	5	5
Starry Eyes	6	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Young Winston	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Magical Dragon	7	7/1	7/1	7	7/1
Roman Tempest	15/2	7	7	7	15/2
Iftikhaar	12	14	14/1	14	14
Laurentia	20	18	18	18	16/1
Gosmore	25	22	25/1	25	25
On The Nose	100	100	80	100	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Shes A Mirage

14.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 10 Odds: 3.6

2nd

Lord Clenaghcastle

10.5

OR: 0 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4

11/2

3rd

Star Of Epsom

9.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Starry Eyes

8.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 5 Odds: 3.3

11/2

Young Winston

5.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Magical Dragon

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.9

7/1

Roman Tempest

4.8

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Iftikhaar

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Laurentia

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Gosmore

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

25/1

On The Nose

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Shes A Mirage	53	66	43
Star Of Epsom	52	66	42
Starry Eyes	51	64	55
Iftikhaar	50	63	49
Lord Clenaghcastle	48	63	50
Young Winston	46	65	27
Magical Dragon	46	66	26
Roman Tempest	46	62	48
Laurentia	46	69	49
Gosmore	46	50	—
On The Nose	46	64	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Young Winston	14d ago	Fit
Iftikhaar	14d ago	Fit
On The Nose	17d ago	Fit
Lord Clenaghcastle	19d ago	Fit
Shes A Mirage	21d ago	Fit
Starry Eyes	21d ago	Fit
Laurentia	21d ago	Fit
Star Of Epsom	29d ago	Fit
Gosmore	34d ago	Fit
Roman Tempest	50d ago	Fresh
Magical Dragon	57d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Magical Dragon	Prominent
Starry Eyes	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 11 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 1m2f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.