Racing Welfare Classified Stakes – Ascot

Ascot

15:22

Racing Welfare Classified Stakes

Date 2023-10-06

Distance 1m

Class Class 3

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £10,800

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (8)	Florida Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	130	—	51-631	89	103	82	26d	—	—	-7	17	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Successful in York handicap last month; that form has been franked since; appealing
9 (6)	Jeff Koons b/br J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	130	—	21442	88	101	81	27d	—	—	+4	24.7	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Ran well over 1m2f here last time; still unexposed but this return to 1m may not be ideal
NR (1)	Hickory Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:James Fanshawe	J:NON-RUNNER T:James Fanshawe	133	—	442023	89	103	76	27d	—	—	-3	27.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Placed in the C&D handicaps won by Baradar and Quinault
7 (7)	Daysofourlives Bay J:Luke Morris T:Marco Botti	J:Luke Morris T:Marco Botti	130	p	431-61	89	100	70	28d	—	—	-1	14.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Forced a dead-heat in C&D handicap last month; could well progress further; respected
10 (3)	Metal Merchant Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Jack Channon	J:Rossa Ryan T:Jack Channon	130	—	303562	88	102	90	13d	—	—	+5	19.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Clear second at Newbury most recently; exposed 3yo but again has place possibilities
NR (5)	Orbaan Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:David Omeara	J:NON-RUNNER T:David Omeara	133	tp	795005	89	109	-	13d	—	—	-40	29.8	1.75/1	8 13%
0-14 since winning over C&D on Shergar Cup day in 2022
11 (9)	Stormbuster Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	130	v	-56088	84	98	78	13d	—	—	+4	10.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Landed a notable race at two; disappointing since; now goes in headgear
1 (2)	Dawn Of Liberation Bay J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	J:Pat Dobbs T:Richard Hannon	133	—	-04000	90	106	72	55d	—	—	+6	11.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Far from solid on 2023 handicap form that mostly consists of duck eggs
NR (11)	Sterling Knight Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Ed Dunlop	J:NON-RUNNER T:Ed Dunlop	133	—	130075	88	106	80	15d	—	—	-2	15.1	4.25/1	18 6%
Most wins at 6f; has lost his form recently; opposed on first attempt over 1m
6 (10)	Sweet Reward Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	133	—	517165	90	103	93	9d	—	—	+12	18.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Being kept to 1m looks a negative, having gained all wins at 1m1f/1m2f
4 (4)	Raising Sand Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	133	p	8-6409	87	101	68	156d	—	—	+6	10.5	6.00/1	25 4%
Won this race in 2016 and 2022; absent since below-par effort over C&D five months ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Florida	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2	9/4
Jeff Koons	3	3	3	3	3/1
Hickory	4	4	7/2	7/2	7/2
Daysofourlives	5	9/2	5	5/1	9/2
Metal Merchant	9/2	9/2	5	9/2	11/2
Orbaan	8	SP	SP	SP	SP
Stormbuster	12	11	12	12	12/1
Dawn Of Liberation	14	12	12	12	12
Sterling Knight	18	12	12	12	12
Sweet Reward	12	12	12	12	12
Raising Sand	25	20	20	20	22/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Orbaan

29.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 20

2nd

Hickory

27.3

OR: 9.8 Form: 8 Odds: 9.5

7/2

3rd

Jeff Koons

24.7

OR: 9.5 Form: 9 Odds: 6.2

3/1

Metal Merchant

19.4

OR: 9.5 Form: 5.9 Odds: 4

11/2

Sweet Reward

18.7

OR: 10 Form: 7 Odds: 1.7

Florida

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Sterling Knight

15.1

OR: 9.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 5

Daysofourlives

14.2

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Dawn Of Liberation

11.6

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Raising Sand

10.5

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Stormbuster

10.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dawn Of Liberation	90	106	72
Sweet Reward	90	103	93
Florida	89	103	82
Hickory	89	103	76
Daysofourlives	89	100	70
Orbaan	89	109	—
Jeff Koons	88	101	81
Metal Merchant	88	102	90
Sterling Knight	88	106	80
Raising Sand	87	101	68
Stormbuster	84	98	78

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sweet Reward	9d ago	Quick return
Metal Merchant	13d ago	Quick return
Orbaan	13d ago	Quick return
Stormbuster	13d ago	Quick return
Sterling Knight	15d ago	Fit
Florida	26d ago	Fit
Jeff Koons	27d ago	Fit
Hickory	27d ago	Fit
Daysofourlives	28d ago	Fit
Dawn Of Liberation	55d ago	Fresh
Raising Sand	156d ago	Long break