Northumbria Leisure Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

20:00

Northumbria Leisure Handicap

Date 2023-10-13

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Winning Time 1m 13.88s (slow by 3.48s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Mumcat (GB) Joanna Mason · Jacqueline Coward	3/1	Won
2nd	He's An Angel (GB) Ben Robinson · Tim Easterby	5/2F	.5
3rd	Rain Cap (GB) Kieran O'Neill · John David Riches	12/1	0.3
4th	Brother Dave (GB) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	66/1	1.75
5th	Lupset Flossy Pop (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	13/2	.75
6th	Struck Gold (IRE) Luke Morris · John Butler	11/1	2.25
7th	Top Gun Tina (GB) Aiden Brookes · David Thompson	22/1	1.75
8th	Muddy Lynn (GB) Dale Swift · Seb Spencer	11/2	0.1
9th	One For The Ladies (GB) Billy Garritty · Michael & David Easterby	9/1	1.25
10th	Autumn Flight (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Ian McInnes	22/1	1

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
NR (2)	Yazaman Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Paul Midgley	J:NON-RUNNER T:Paul Midgley	131	—	652453	53	72	-	9d	—	—	-39	25.3	—	—
No win since his debut but running well at a low level of late; should be staying on late
9 (11)	Hes An Angel Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Tim Easterby	J:Ben Robinson T:Tim Easterby	130	tp	6-9583	53	73	62	7d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-18	8.8	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Promising AW debut here last week (5f) and ready for another crack at 6f; contender
5 (9)	Mumcat Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	131	—	656523	53	70	62	14d	—	—	-8	13.9	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Tricky to catch right but she's run well here the last twice & returning to 6f is a plus
1 (3)	Muddy Lynn Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	135	b	713665	57	71	51	37d	—	—	-6	9.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Not kicked on from her C&D win in June but new headgear could give her a lift
8 (6)	Lupset Flossy Pop Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	130	p	075356	53	69	56	3d	—	—	-6	5.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
C&D winner one year ago off 11lb higher; in fair form off reduced mark of late; e-w shout
4 (7)	Gowanbuster Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Susan Corbett	J:Cam Hardie T:Susan Corbett	132	t	272684	54	72	67	27d	—	—	-4	5	2.50/1	11 9%
Conditions fine & shaped with some promise on turf last time; not ruled out at this level
11 (1)	One For The Ladies Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	128	v	719330	50	68	62	38d	—	—	+1	7.5	2.75/1	12 8%
C&D winner; scored off this mark (beat Struck Gold) at Wolverhampton in July; chance
12 (4)	Struck Gold Bay J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	125	b	823276	48	71	61	66d	—	—	0	6.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Placed four times over 6f on Tapeta this year; should remain competitive
7 (10)	Autumn Flight Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Ian Mcinnes	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Ian Mcinnes	131	b	464943	53	69	28	15d	—	—	+1	5	6.00/1	25 4%
Well backed when a front-running third at Pontefract (5f) two weeks ago; first visit here
3 (5)	Top Gun Tina Bay J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:David Thompson	J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:David Thompson	132	—	035	55	70	36	25d	0W/0P 2 runs	0W/0P 1 run	0	4.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Interesting on her C&D run last month; makes handicap debut at a low level
2 (12)	Rain Cap Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:John David Riches	J:Kieran O'Neill T:John David Riches	134	v	870120	56	69	-	53d	—	—	+8	10.9	6.75/1	28 4%
0-10 on AW but has run well over 7f here before; ran poorly at Catterick latest
10 (8)	Brother Dave Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	129	—	709	52	64	33	155d	—	—	-1	0.9	12.25/1	50 2%
Makes his handicap debut at a realistic level; should be capable of better

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Yazaman	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Hes An Angel	5/2	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4
Mumcat	3	10/3	3	3	10/3
Muddy Lynn	11/2	5	5	5	5
Lupset Flossy Pop	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	7/1
Gowanbuster	11	10	8	10	9/1
One For The Ladies	12	12	12	12	12
Struck Gold	14	14	14	14	14
Autumn Flight	25	18	16	20	20
Top Gun Tina	16	18	16	18	18
Rain Cap	25	28	25	28	28
Brother Dave	50	50	50	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Yazaman

25.3

OR: 0.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 20

—

2nd

Mumcat

13.9

OR: 0.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 6.7

10/3

3rd

Rain Cap

10.9

OR: 1.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.9

Muddy Lynn

9.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 2.9 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Hes An Angel

8.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 8

5/2

One For The Ladies

7.5

OR: 0 Form: 5.6 Odds: 1.9

Struck Gold

6.1

OR: 0 Form: 4.4 Odds: 1.7

Lupset Flossy Pop

5.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.3

7/1

Gowanbuster

OR: 1 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

Autumn Flight

OR: 0.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

Top Gun Tina

4.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.2

Brother Dave

0.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Muddy Lynn	57	71	51
Rain Cap	56	69	—
Top Gun Tina	55	70	36
Gowanbuster	54	72	67
Yazaman	53	72	—
Hes An Angel	53	73	62
Mumcat	53	70	62
Lupset Flossy Pop	53	69	56
Autumn Flight	53	69	28
Brother Dave	52	64	33
One For The Ladies	50	68	62
Struck Gold	48	71	61

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Lupset Flossy Pop	3d ago	Quick return
Hes An Angel	7d ago	Quick return
Yazaman	9d ago	Quick return
Mumcat	14d ago	Fit
Autumn Flight	15d ago	Fit
Top Gun Tina	25d ago	Fit
Gowanbuster	27d ago	Fit
Muddy Lynn	37d ago	Fit
One For The Ladies	38d ago	Fit
Rain Cap	53d ago	Fresh
Struck Gold	66d ago	Fresh
Brother Dave	155d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.