Northumbria Leisure Celebrating 50 Years Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:20

Northumbria Leisure Celebrating 50 Years Handicap

Date 2023-10-13

Distance 2m56y

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (8)	Victoriano Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	140	b	213511	63	71	60	42d	—	—	+9	28.9	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Success in July took his C&D record to 31121; followed up at Wolverhampton
2 (3)	Valley Of Flowers Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	J:Joanna Mason T:Jacqueline Coward	142	h	223411	65	58	-	9d	—	—	+12	27.1	1.13/1	9/2 18%
In top form but has something to prove over new trip back on AW
6 (1)	Dancing Cloud Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Gemma Tutty	J:Jack Mitchell T:Gemma Tutty	135	—	-34266	67	63	54	10d	—	—	-3	11.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Maiden; ties in with Heatherdown Hero on 1m7f running last month
8 (7)	Natacata Grey J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	132	p	6-5233	64	68	-	17d	—	—	-4	6.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Combination of new trip and first-time headgear may spark progress
9 (5)	Mascani Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Grant Tuer	J:Billy Garritty T:Grant Tuer	129	—	565166	61	68	-	20d	—	—	0	10.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Has failed to build on 1m2f win; something to prove
5 (9)	Heatherdown Hero Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Hollie Doyle T:Rebecca Menzies	136	—	555465	59	68	50	10d	—	—	-4	4.8	2.00/1	8/1 11%
0-6 for current yard but has possibilities off present mark with Hollie Doyle booked
3 (6)	Doublethetrouble Chestnut J:Darragh Keenan T:John Butler	J:Darragh Keenan T:John Butler	140	p	0-7422	63	68	51	16d	—	—	-3	5.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Still a maiden but is threatening to win an ordinary handicap
1 (4)	Annandale Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	142	—	-53428	65	67	-	21d	—	—	+5	9.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Doesn't appear to be crying out for a return to 2m
7 (2)	Dance Havana Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	132	tp	495165	64	68	-	—	—	—	+6	9.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Both wins on turf; return to AW presents a question mark

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Victoriano	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Valley Of Flowers	4	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Dancing Cloud	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Natacata	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Mascani	13/2	7	7	7	7
Heatherdown Hero	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	8/1
Doublethetrouble	8	8	15/2	15/2	8
Annandale	16	20	20	20	20
Dance Havana	20	22	22	22	22

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Victoriano

28.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 19.9 Odds: 5.7

10/3

2nd

Valley Of Flowers

27.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 18.9 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Dancing Cloud

11.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 3.1 Odds: 4

9/2

Mascani

10.6

OR: 2.8 Form: 5 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Dance Havana

9.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 5 Odds: 1.1

Annandale

9.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 4.4 Odds: 1.2

Natacata

6.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Doublethetrouble

5.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Heatherdown Hero

4.8

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

8/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dancing Cloud	67	63	54
Valley Of Flowers	65	58	—
Annandale	65	67	—
Natacata	64	68	—
Dance Havana	64	68	—
Victoriano	63	71	60
Doublethetrouble	63	68	51
Mascani	61	68	—
Heatherdown Hero	59	68	50

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Valley Of Flowers	9d ago	Quick return
Dancing Cloud	10d ago	Quick return
Heatherdown Hero	10d ago	Quick return
Doublethetrouble	16d ago	Fit
Natacata	17d ago	Fit
Mascani	20d ago	Fit
Annandale	21d ago	Fit
Victoriano	42d ago	Fit
Dance Havana	—	—