British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Kempton (AW)

18:30

Date 2023-10-16

Distance 7f

Class Class 2

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £15,462

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (8)	Enchanted Life Bay J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-23	10.6	0.44/1	7/4 36%
475,000gns yearling; smart pedigree and top yard in terrific form, including with 2yos
4 (4)	Catherine Parr Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran Shoemark T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-17	7.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Late foal; useful pedigree; represents top yard and needs watching in the market
8 (1)	Lumiere Dor Bay J:Neil Callan T:James Tate	J:Neil Callan T:James Tate	128	—	2	-	81	56	57d	—	—	-5	9	1.00/1	5 20%
150,000gns 2yo; ran green on Southwell AW debut but showed ability; capable of better
13 (14)	Topanga Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-5	1.7	2.75/1	12 8%
230,000gns yearling; classy pedigree but will break from the widest stall
14 (9)	Wellborn Bay J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	128	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.4	2.50/1	11 9%
Out of half-sister to Irish 1,000 Guineas winner; hood for debut which raises questions
7 (13)	Lady Pagasa Grey J:Callum Shepherd T:Charles Hills	J:Callum Shepherd T:Charles Hills	128	—	27	-	95	-	38d	—	—	-1	5.1	4.25/1	18 6%
Likeable 7f debut but didn't make the same impression dropped to 6f next time
1 (6)	Alabama Anna Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Harry & Roger Charlton	J:Kevin Stott T:Harry & Roger Charlton	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-3	1	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Late foal; dam won on Polytrack, bred Grade 1 winner in US; yard also runs Flag Of Love
3 (3)	Carpathian Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	128	h	9	-	63	-	38d	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
22-1, never going the gallop on 6f debut in a hood; up against it for now
2 (11)	Bella Umbria Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:James Ferguson	J:Hollie Doyle T:James Ferguson	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Dam bred useful winners, including on AW; wide draw not helpful on debut
10 (2)	Overture Chestnut J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	128	—	7	-	69	44	11d	—	—	-2	0.7	8.00/1	33 3%
22-1 for 7f debut on Lingfield AW when showing some late promise in the straight
6 (5)	Flag Of Love Grey J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry & Roger Charlton	J:Trevor Whelan T:Harry & Roger Charlton	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Well-connected filly; market interest would be worth heeding
9 (7)	Morindoo Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.5	19.75/1	80 1%
Nice enough pedigree and market should offer some clues as to her chance
11 (12)	Rinnovati Chestnut J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	128	—	9	-	56	-	67d	—	—	-1	0.4	19.75/1	80 1%
8-1 for Salisbury debut over 6f when not showing much after a slow start; drawn wide
12 (10)	Sapphira Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Ed Dunlop	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ed Dunlop	128	—	—	-	49	-	16d	—	—	-1	0.3	37.25/1	150 1%
66-1 for 7f debut at Newmarket 16 days ago, when showing little for the immediate future

Horse	bet365	Coral
Enchanted Life	7/4	13/8
Catherine Parr	9/4	5/2
Lumiere Dor	5	5
Topanga	12	12
Wellborn	11	10
Lady Pagasa	12	18
Alabama Anna	28/1	22
Carpathian	28/1	28
Bella Umbria	25	33
Overture	33	33
Flag Of Love	50/1	40
Morindoo	66	80
Rinnovati	80	80
Sapphira	150	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Enchanted Life

10.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 10.6

7/4

2nd

Lumiere Dor

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 4

3rd

Catherine Parr

7.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Lady Pagasa

5.1

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.6

Wellborn

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Topanga

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Alabama Anna

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Carpathian

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Bella Umbria

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Overture

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Flag Of Love

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Morindoo

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Rinnovati

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Sapphira

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

150

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Enchanted Life	—	—	—
Catherine Parr	—	—	—
Lumiere Dor	—	81	56
Topanga	—	—	—
Wellborn	—	—	—
Lady Pagasa	—	95	—
Alabama Anna	—	—	—
Carpathian	—	63	—
Bella Umbria	—	—	—
Overture	—	69	44
Flag Of Love	—	—	—
Morindoo	—	—	—
Rinnovati	—	56	—
Sapphira	—	49	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Overture	11d ago	Quick return
Sapphira	16d ago	Fit
Lady Pagasa	38d ago	Fit
Carpathian	38d ago	Fit
Lumiere Dor	57d ago	Fresh
Rinnovati	67d ago	Fresh
Enchanted Life	—	—
Catherine Parr	—	—
Topanga	—	—
Wellborn	—	—
Alabama Anna	—	—
Bella Umbria	—	—
Flag Of Love	—	—
Morindoo	—	—