Unibet Horserace Betting-Operator Of The Year Nursery Handicap

Kempton (AW)

16:26

Date 2023-10-16

Distance 1m

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (4)	St Lukes Chelsea Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	134	—	9303	59	65	40	25d	—	—	-9	13.4	0.88/1	7/2 22%
No marked improvement for stepping up to 1m on nursery debut at Yarmouth
10 (7)	Palazzo Persico Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Ed Dunlop	J:Oisin Murphy T:Ed Dunlop	132	—	9892	57	66	50	16d	—	—	-5	11.8	1.00/1	5 20%
Came from behind off a steady pace when going close at Chelmsford
2 (11)	Irrelevant Chestnut J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	136	b	874155	61	71	60	21d	—	—	-3	12.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Looked good in first-time blinkers but the positive effect seems to be wearing thin
3 (3)	Quintus Maximus Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Johnston	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Johnston	136	v	08375	61	66	-	30d	—	—	-3	6.9	2.00/1	9 11%
Quiet in two nurseries but has been gelded and now goes in a visor
6 (10)	Go Your Own Way Grey Roan J:Kieran Shoemark T:J S Moore	J:Kieran Shoemark T:J S Moore	134	b	232162	59	66	49	9d	—	—	+6	17.4	1.75/1	8 13%
Exposed and effectively 6lb higher than for last week's near miss at Wolverhampton
5 (1)	Brandaisy Chestnut J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	J:David Nolan T:Richard Fahey	135	—	582575	60	66	28	23d	—	—	-2	6.5	2.75/1	12 8%
Regressed since finishing second on nursery debut and is looking exposed
11 (5)	Maverick Style Bay J:Luke Morris T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Luke Morris T:Paul & Oliver Cole	132	—	786	57	61	45	19d	—	—	-7	5.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Confined to 6f thus far and a longer trip might well be to her liking on handicap debut
8 (6)	Lady Chatterley Bay J:Neil Callan T:Marco Botti	J:Neil Callan T:Marco Botti	134	—	966	59	59	34	20d	—	—	-2	3.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Did finish closer last time at Nottingham and the front two are good fillies
12 (12)	Tenyatta Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	129	—	505044	54	65	51	30d	—	—	-2	2	5.25/1	22 5%
Kept on for fourth of 11 at Lingfield (7f) a month ago but was beaten 7l
9 (9)	Midnight Force Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:Darryll Holland	J:Connor Planas(3) T:Darryll Holland	133	t	047778	58	59	46	16d	—	—	0	2.7	9.75/1	40 3%
0-6 and doesn't appear to be going anywhere at the minute
4 (2)	Mrs Nell Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Jonathan Portman	J:Trevor Whelan T:Jonathan Portman	135	—	030	60	69	34	19d	—	—	+2	5.4	8.00/1	33 3%
Poor last time and the form of her third at Lingfield hasn't worked out too well
1 (8)	Spirit La Adelita Chestnut J:David Egan T:Darryll Holland	J:David Egan T:Darryll Holland	136	h	770	61	66	7	46d	—	—	+1	3.5	12.25/1	50 2%
Modest form so far and burdened with top weight for nursery debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
St Lukes Chelsea	7/2	10/3	3	10/3	3
Palazzo Persico	7/2	5	4	4	4
Irrelevant	5	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
Quintus Maximus	7	9	15/2	8	8
Go Your Own Way	7	8	7	13/2	7
Brandaisy	12	10	9	9	9
Maverick Style	17/2	9	8	11/2	8
Lady Chatterley	16	14	14	14	14
Tenyatta	22	22	20	20	20
Midnight Force	33	40	28	33	33
Mrs Nell	25	33	33	33	33
Spirit La Adelita	50	33	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Go Your Own Way

17.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 3.1

2nd

St Lukes Chelsea

13.4

OR: 2.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 6.7

7/2

3rd

Irrelevant

12.2

OR: 2.8 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Palazzo Persico

11.8

OR: 1.8 Form: 5 Odds: 5

Quintus Maximus

6.9

OR: 2.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.7

Brandaisy

6.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

Mrs Nell

5.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.8

Maverick Style

5.1

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

17/2

Lady Chatterley

3.9

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Spirit La Adelita

3.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Midnight Force

2.7

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Tenyatta

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Irrelevant	61	71	60
Quintus Maximus	61	66	—
Spirit La Adelita	61	66	7
Brandaisy	60	66	28
Mrs Nell	60	69	34
St Lukes Chelsea	59	65	40
Go Your Own Way	59	66	49
Lady Chatterley	59	59	34
Midnight Force	58	59	46
Palazzo Persico	57	66	50
Maverick Style	57	61	45
Tenyatta	54	65	51

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Go Your Own Way	9d ago	Quick return
Palazzo Persico	16d ago	Fit
Midnight Force	16d ago	Fit
Maverick Style	19d ago	Fit
Mrs Nell	19d ago	Fit
Lady Chatterley	20d ago	Fit
Irrelevant	21d ago	Fit
Brandaisy	23d ago	Fit
St Lukes Chelsea	25d ago	Fit
Quintus Maximus	30d ago	Fit
Tenyatta	30d ago	Fit
Spirit La Adelita	46d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.