Paulstown Handicap (Div II) – Gowran Park

Gowran Park

15:50

Paulstown Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-10-16

Distance 1m1f100y

Class

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize €5,900

Runners (17)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (12)	Lisamaria Bay J:Colin Keane T:Paul W Flynn	J:Colin Keane T:Paul W Flynn	125	t	237437	47	73	56	11d	—	—	-13	9.6	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Not far away on occasions this year, including a third to Patrick Street two runs ago
13 (3)	Queen Mab Chestnut J:Gary Carroll T:Joseph G Murphy	J:Gary Carroll T:Joseph G Murphy	125	t	763060	51	70	58	17d	—	—	-6	4	2.00/1	9 11%
0-8, with her best run when third on yielding ground at Bellewstown in July (1m)
NR (10)	Stormie Outlook Bay J:TBC T:E J Ogrady	J: T:E J Ogrady	135	t	-40406	57	72	42	20d	—	—	-52	21.8	2.75/1	12 8%
Not far away in two of her last three races and the exception was at Laytown
2 (17)	Men Of Dreams Chestnut J:Donagh O'Connor T:J F Levins	J:Donagh O'Connor T:J F Levins	141	p	09340-	63	70	59	—	—	—	-2	7.3	2.13/1	17/2 11%
0-19 on the Flat but with placed form and he won a maiden hurdle this summer
10 (15)	Lisabetta Bay J:Wayne Hassett(7) T:Timothy Doyle	J:Wayne Hassett(7) T:Timothy Doyle	125	b	004708	47	70	51	20d	—	—	-5	1.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Just quietly tapping on the door this season and needs to find extra from somewhere
7 (14)	Kartayaz Bay J:Cian Fahy(10) T:John C Mcconnell	J:Cian Fahy(10) T:John C Mcconnell	129	t	075369	51	71	49	38d	—	—	-2	3.1	4.25/1	18 6%
Was running okay until off colour last time; this mark is workable
17 (13)	Samhradh Bay J:Andrew Slattery T:Andrew Slattery	J:Andrew Slattery T:Andrew Slattery	121	—	-07508	47	60	37	11d	—	—	-6	2.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Bits of promise but not ideal being 7lb wrong on this occasion
1 (6)	Awqaat Bay J:Jamie Powell(5) T:John C Mcconnell	J:Jamie Powell(5) T:John C Mcconnell	141	t	5-6467	63	72	48	20d	—	—	-2	5.4	2.75/1	12 8%
Seems to go well on this sort of ground and there's a race in her off this mark
8 (8)	My Birthday Girl Chestnut J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Noel Meade	J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Noel Meade	127	—	005	53	68	17	21d	—	—	-4	2.5	4.25/1	18 6%
Nowhere in her first two runs but showed more on heavy ground at Down Royal; h'cap debut
12 (1)	Miss Molly T Bay J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:John C Mcconnell	J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:John C Mcconnell	125	—	0-0000	47	67	31	4d	—	—	-4	1.4	6.00/1	25 4%
Had a bucketload of chances in handicaps and hasn't been threatening of late
3 (11)	Old Peculier Bay J:Gavin Ryan T:Mark Fahey	J:Gavin Ryan T:Mark Fahey	137	—	540700	59	69	45	23d	—	—	-1	3.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Hard to trust after never showing on softening ground at the Curragh 23 days ago
6 (2)	Susiesparkle Chestnut J:Ben Coen T:Ms Sheila Lavery	J:Ben Coen T:Ms Sheila Lavery	134	—	458809	60	72	45	16d	—	—	-2	4.2	2.75/1	12 8%
A couple of runs were okay but not her last two when tailed off over middle distances
9 (16)	Saffronandblue Bay J:Luke McAteer T:Martin Brassil	J:Luke McAteer T:Martin Brassil	126	t	0880	52	72	40	42d	—	—	-3	1.7	5.25/1	22 5%
50-1 and trailed home last on his handicap debut at Roscommon (7f)
4 (5)	Patrick Street Bay J:Jack Kearney(7) T:Patrick Martin	J:Jack Kearney(7) T:Patrick Martin	137	tp	059601	59	74	47	12d	—	—	+1	16.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
AW winner who returned from a break to come clear over a tad further at Navan; up 8lb
14 (9)	Talking Tough Bay J:Chris Hayes T:S M Duffy	J:Chris Hayes T:S M Duffy	125	tp	500380	47	66	37	25d	—	—	0	2.2	9.75/1	40 3%
Very moderate strike-rate of 2-63 and mostly struggled this season; 3lb out of the weights
16 (4)	Just Another Eagle Bay J:Alan Persse(7) T:Patrick J Flynn	J:Alan Persse(7) T:Patrick J Flynn	121	—	09700	47	62	35	39d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.25/1	22 5%
Hasn't shown much, including a 1m1f handicap; 5lb out of the weights
15 (7)	Wish Me Bay J:Rory Cleary T:Keith Henry Clarke	J:Rory Cleary T:Keith Henry Clarke	125	—	00-000	47	20	-	44d	—	—	-1	0.4	19.75/1	80 1%
Tailed off on all three sightings this year and he's out of the weights

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Lisamaria	3	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Queen Mab	9	15/2	7	15/2	7
Stormie Outlook	12	12	11	11	12
Men Of Dreams	8	17/2	8	8	8
Lisabetta	14	12	11	12	12
Kartayaz	16	18	14	18	18
Samhradh	14	11	11	10	10/1
Awqaat	12	11	9	10	11
My Birthday Girl	18	16	16	11	14
Miss Molly T	25	18	16	18	18
Old Peculier	18	14	14	16	16
Susiesparkle	12	12	12	11	12
Saffronandblue	16	22	22	22	22
Patrick Street	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Talking Tough	33	40	33/1	33	40
Just Another Eagle	22	18	18	18	18
Wish Me	80	80	80	80	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Stormie Outlook

21.8

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 20

2nd

Patrick Street

16.7

OR: 2.3 Form: 10 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Lisamaria

9.6

OR: 0 Form: 2.7 Odds: 6.9

5/2

Men Of Dreams

7.3

OR: 3.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Awqaat

5.4

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Susiesparkle

4.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Queen Mab

OR: 0.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 2.9

Old Peculier

3.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Kartayaz

3.1

OR: 0.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

My Birthday Girl

2.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Talking Tough

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.7

Samhradh

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Lisabetta

1.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Saffronandblue

1.7

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Miss Molly T

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Just Another Eagle

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Wish Me

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Men Of Dreams	63	70	59
Awqaat	63	72	48
Susiesparkle	60	72	45
Old Peculier	59	69	45
Patrick Street	59	74	47
Stormie Outlook	57	72	42
My Birthday Girl	53	68	17
Saffronandblue	52	72	40
Queen Mab	51	70	58
Kartayaz	51	71	49
Lisamaria	47	73	56
Lisabetta	47	70	51
Samhradh	47	60	37
Miss Molly T	47	67	31
Talking Tough	47	66	37
Just Another Eagle	47	62	35
Wish Me	47	20	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Miss Molly T	4d ago	Quick return
Lisamaria	11d ago	Quick return
Samhradh	11d ago	Quick return
Patrick Street	12d ago	Quick return
Susiesparkle	16d ago	Fit
Queen Mab	17d ago	Fit
Stormie Outlook	20d ago	Fit
Lisabetta	20d ago	Fit
Awqaat	20d ago	Fit
My Birthday Girl	21d ago	Fit
Old Peculier	23d ago	Fit
Talking Tough	25d ago	Fit
Kartayaz	38d ago	Fit
Just Another Eagle	39d ago	Fit
Saffronandblue	42d ago	Fit
Wish Me	44d ago	Fit
Men Of Dreams	—	—