Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Handicap – Doncaster

Doncaster

17:11

Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Handicap

Date 2023-10-27

Distance 1m2f43y

Class Class 5

Going Heavy

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,397

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (8)	Wintercrack Bay J:Hayley Turner T:Pam Sly	J:Hayley Turner T:Pam Sly	131	—	763652	70	85	77	10d	—	—	-5	17.6	0.63/1	5/2 29%
1m2f on slow ground suits well; near miss behind an improver latest; 2lb well in; solid
10 (6)	Don't Look Back Grey J:Brandon Wilkie(7) T:Lucinda Russell	J:Brandon Wilkie(7) T:Lucinda Russell	128	—	638348	63	83	53	15d	—	—	-24	19.9	1.75/1	8 13%
Easy C&D win on heavy in April; enough fair efforts since to enter the reckoning
5 (2)	Casilli Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	135	—	534547	70	86	67	18d	—	—	-2	8.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
On lowly mark; looked in good form when suffering torrid passage at Pontefract; ground a ?
12 (12)	Red Derek Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Lisa Williamson	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Lisa Williamson	125	—	54-024	60	82	68	153d	—	—	-4	4.8	2.75/1	12 8%
Won this race on heavy last year; five-month absence to contend with today
2 (1)	Unplugged Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	137	—	134247	72	82	75	16d	—	—	+4	10.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Two fast-ground wins in midsummer; still has something to prove on slower than good
11 (11)	Loddon Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Sara Ender	J:Joe Fanning T:Sara Ender	128	—	462628	67	79	74	18d	—	—	+4	11.1	3.25/1	14 7%
0-8 but there has been promise, including on heavy; one to consider
8 (10)	Bustaam Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	130	—	4-35	69	74	45	30d	—	—	0	6.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Appeals as a likely improver upped in trip for handicap debut; promise on soft on debut
3 (4)	Boldly Brown J:Kieran Shoemark T:George Boughey	J:Kieran Shoemark T:George Boughey	135	—	3763	74	59	36	10d	—	—	-3	15.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Promising handicap debut at Newcastle (1m2f) ten days ago; very different conditions today
6 (3)	Ayr Poet Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	134	p	321332	69	80	64	15d	—	—	+9	20.4	1.50/1	7 14%
Three wins at Ayr for Paul Mulrennan this year; ran well on heavy latest; one to consider
1 (7)	Victory March Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	138	—	653463	73	83	-	210d	—	—	+6	10.9	6.00/1	25 4%
Ended 2022 in rude health on AW; returns from 7 months off; ground a concern
4 (9)	Lunar Jet Chestnut J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	J:Dougie Costello T:Steph Hollinshead	135	—	-31456	70	84	48	16d	—	—	-21	23.2	6.75/1	28 4%
Conditions to suit & on a fair mark; could be sharper with recent stable debut behind him
9 (5)	Sagauteur Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Rebecca Menzies	129	t	-35609	64	82	62	37d	—	—	-1	6	8.00/1	33 3%
Heavy defeats on last three starts have led to a much-reduced mark; ground a query for now

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Wintercrack	3	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Don't Look Back	8	8	8	8	8
Casilli	7	17/2	17/2	8	17/2
Red Derek	10	12	11	11	11
Unplugged	14	10	10	10	10
Loddon	14	12	12	12	12
Bustaam	14	14	12	14	14
Boldly	7/2	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Ayr Poet	6	7	7	7	7
Victory March	25	20	22	20	20
Lunar Jet	28	22	20	20	20
Sagauteur	33	28	22	28	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lunar Jet

23.2

OR: 5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 14.6

2nd

Ayr Poet

20.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 12.6 Odds: 3.1

3rd

Don't Look Back

19.9

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 14.6

Wintercrack

17.6

OR: 5 Form: 5.9 Odds: 6.7

5/2

Boldly

15.1

OR: 6 Form: 3.9 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Loddon

11.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 5 Odds: 1.8

Victory March

10.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 3.9 Odds: 1.3

Unplugged

10.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 3.1 Odds: 1.9

Casilli

8.7

OR: 5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 3.1

17/2

Bustaam

6.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.8

Sagauteur

OR: 3.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.9

Red Derek

4.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.3

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Boldly	74	59	36
Victory March	73	83	—
Unplugged	72	82	75
Wintercrack	70	85	77
Casilli	70	86	67
Lunar Jet	70	84	48
Bustaam	69	74	45
Ayr Poet	69	80	64
Loddon	67	79	74
Sagauteur	64	82	62
Don't Look Back	63	83	53
Red Derek	60	82	68

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Wintercrack	10d ago	Quick return
Boldly	10d ago	Quick return
Don't Look Back	15d ago	Fit
Ayr Poet	15d ago	Fit
Unplugged	16d ago	Fit
Lunar Jet	16d ago	Fit
Casilli	18d ago	Fit
Loddon	18d ago	Fit
Bustaam	30d ago	Fit
Sagauteur	37d ago	Fit
Red Derek	153d ago	Long break
Victory March	210d ago	Long break