Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:00

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-10-30

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,716

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (7)	Amayretto Chestnut J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	123	—	677213	63	83	63	12d	—	—	-5	25.1	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Won at Redcar last month before a creditable third at Nottingham; should go well again
1 (5)	Trafalgar Square Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	136	t	468	76	81	49	14d	—	—	-7	12.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Well-bred colt who is still unexposed and looks a possible improver on nursery debut
4 (3)	Swift Victory Chestnut J:Tom Marquand T:James Tate	J:Tom Marquand T:James Tate	133	—	038	73	80	65	68d	—	—	-3	12.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Mixed form in three runs so far and needs to resume his progress on nursery debut
6 (4)	Arizona Desert Chestnut J:Owen Lewis(7) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Owen Lewis(7) T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	129	t	33631	69	82	62	20d	—	—	+9	22	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Off the mark with brave win at Leicester and she's open to more progress at this new trip
2 (2)	Run For The Sun Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Ed Dunlop	J:Robert Havlin T:Ed Dunlop	135	—	244	75	80	51	20d	—	—	0	12.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Showed promise in maidens and she's in the mix now switched to a nursery at this new trip
5 (1)	Amasar Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	622	70	84	30	16d	—	—	+7	16.2	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Front-running second on AW (1m) in last two starts and he's a key player on nursery debut
3 (6)	Passionately Bay J:Jason Hart T:Amy Murphy	J:Jason Hart T:Amy Murphy	133	b	510647	73	81	-	30d	—	—	+5	8.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Won a Wetherby maiden in June but she's been generally disappointing since; down the list

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Amayretto	15/8	15/8	2	15/8	7/4
Trafalgar Square	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	10/3
Swift Victory	11/2	5	11/2	11/2	11/2
Arizona Desert	13/2	11/2	6/1	6	6
Run For The Sun	6	6	13/2	6	13/2
Amasar	17/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Passionately	33	33/1	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Amayretto

25.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 12.5 Odds: 9.4

15/8

2nd

Arizona Desert

OR: 4.8 Form: 13.6 Odds: 3.6

13/2

3rd

Amasar

16.2

OR: 5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Swift Victory

12.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Trafalgar Square

12.2

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Run For The Sun

12.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Passionately

8.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 2 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Trafalgar Square	76	81	49
Run For The Sun	75	80	51
Swift Victory	73	80	65
Passionately	73	81	—
Amasar	70	84	30
Arizona Desert	69	82	62
Amayretto	63	83	63

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Amayretto	12d ago	Quick return
Trafalgar Square	14d ago	Fit
Amasar	16d ago	Fit
Arizona Desert	20d ago	Fit
Run For The Sun	20d ago	Fit
Passionately	30d ago	Fit
Swift Victory	68d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.