BetMGM: It's Showtime Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:45

BetMGM: It's Showtime Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-10-31

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,873

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (7)	Enpassant Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	129	—	03933	69	81	58	26d	—	—	-3	16.5	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Looking handicapped about right but not dismissed lightly
4 (5)	I'm Spartacus Chestnut J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	132	—	217371	72	83	39	18d	—	—	+6	24.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Did well to come from off the pace over 6f here last time as the gallop was ordinary
3 (8)	Master Franca Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Hugo Palmer	J:Clifford Lee T:Hugo Palmer	133	p	433091	73	81	59	26d	—	—	+6	21.7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Showed a willing attitude to edge home on his first AW start in a nursery at Lingfield
6 (4)	Arantes Nascimento Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	129	—	642	69	82	40	35d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-1	14.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Clear of the rest when chasing home a decent horse over C&D; handicap debut
5 (3)	Novello Lad Bay J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	131	—	2754	71	79	-	46d	—	—	-2	10.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Not progressed from debut but has changed yards and yet could turn things around
2 (6)	Never Sell Bay J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	134	—	450	74	76	-	96d	—	—	-2	9.1	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Gelded during his absence and market should be helpful ahead of nursery debut
8 (1)	Vintage Love Bay J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	128	—	533322	68	82	40	21d	—	—	+11	17.9	2.75/1	12 8%
0-6 but consistent and only just missed out on her return to 7f off 3lb lower at Leicester
1 (2)	Ribble Radiant Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	137	—	13	77	74	-	27d	—	—	+14	17.6	8.00/1	33 3%
Debut winner but below par last time; retains potential ahead of nursery debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Enpassant	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
I'm Spartacus	4	4	4	4	10/3
Master Franca	5	9/2	5/1	9/2	9/2
Arantes Nascimento	4	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
Novello Lad	7	13/2	7	7	7
Never Sell	9	17/2	9	9	17/2
Vintage Love	12	11	11	11	10
Ribble Radiant	33	28	28	28	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

I'm Spartacus

24.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 13.5 Odds: 5.2

10/3

2nd

Master Franca

21.7

OR: 5.8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

3rd

Vintage Love

17.9

OR: 4.5 Form: 11.5 Odds: 1.9

Ribble Radiant

17.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0.9

Enpassant

16.5

OR: 4.8 Form: 6 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Arantes Nascimento

14.2

OR: 4.8 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Novello Lad

10.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Never Sell

9.1

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

17/2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ribble Radiant	77	74	—
Never Sell	74	76	—
Master Franca	73	81	59
I'm Spartacus	72	83	39
Novello Lad	71	79	—
Enpassant	69	81	58
Arantes Nascimento	69	82	40
Vintage Love	68	82	40

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
I'm Spartacus	18d ago	Fit
Vintage Love	21d ago	Fit
Enpassant	26d ago	Fit
Master Franca	26d ago	Fit
Ribble Radiant	27d ago	Fit
Arantes Nascimento	35d ago	Fit
Novello Lad	46d ago	Fresh
Never Sell	96d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Novello Lad	Mid-Pack
I'm Spartacus	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 8 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.