Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:10

Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-11-02

Distance 5f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,873

Winning Time 1m 0.76s (slow by 3.26s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Vitarli (IRE) Sam James · Craig Lidster	13/2	Won
2nd	Cool Run (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Edward Bethell	9/4F	0.3
3rd	Alfa Moonstone (GB) Graham Lee · Craig Lidster	3/1	1.5
4th	Chumbaa (IRE) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	20/1	1.5
5th	Lady Nunthorpe (IRE) Harry Russell · Bryan Smart	4/1	1
6th	Gogo Yubari (GB) Jason Hart · Amy Murphy	5/1	0.3
7th	Nasneen (GB) Daniel Tudhope · Paul & Oliver Cole	16/1	.5

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Cool Run Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	136	p	56332	71	79	33	20d	—	—	-12	26.4	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Runner-up over 6f here three weeks ago and could benefit from this drop back to 5f
6 (7)	Vitarli Bay J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	130	—	740842	65	77	59	13d	—	—	-3	13.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Second at 25-1 over C&D recently and in the mix if backing up that latest performance
7 (4)	Gogo Yubari Bay J:Jason Hart T:Amy Murphy	J:Jason Hart T:Amy Murphy	130	t	747	65	72	40	36d	—	0W/1P 1 run	-5	7.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Yet to threaten but there's potential in her pedigree and she makes her nursery debut
4 (5)	Alfa Moonstone Grey J:Graham Lee T:Craig Lidster	J:Graham Lee T:Craig Lidster	134	—	194657	69	78	-	26d	—	—	-3	7.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Ran with credit in Newmarket sales race last time and is worth a second look
1 (3)	Lady Nunthorpe Bay J:Harry Russell T:Bryan Smart	J:Harry Russell T:Bryan Smart	137	—	43435	72	77	-	43d	—	—	+1	11.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Third on nursery debut at Beverley and heavy ground may not have suited there next time
5 (2)	Nasneen Chestnut J:Daniel Tudhope T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Paul & Oliver Cole	130	—	296	65	74	26	24d	—	—	0	8.6	2.00/1	9 11%
Could be on a good mark if tapping back into her debut promise now tackling a nursery
3 (1)	Chumbaa Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	135	p	311565	70	77	-	24d	—	—	+6	11.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Won two in a row in August but subsequent efforts haven't come up to scratch

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Cool Run	11/8	11/8	11/8	5/4	11/8
Vitarli	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Gogo Yubari	13/2	6	11/2	6	6
Alfa Moonstone	13/2	15/2	7	15/2	7
Lady Nunthorpe	15/2	7	6	13/2	15/2
Nasneen	9	9	8	9	9
Chumbaa	16	16	14	16	16

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Cool Run

26.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 8.6 Odds: 12.5

11/8

2nd

Vitarli

13.8

OR: 3.8 Form: 5 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Lady Nunthorpe

11.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Chumbaa

11.6

OR: 5 Form: 5 Odds: 1.6

Nasneen

8.6

OR: 3.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.4

Alfa Moonstone

7.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Gogo Yubari

7.4

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lady Nunthorpe	72	77	—
Cool Run	71	79	33
Chumbaa	70	77	—
Alfa Moonstone	69	78	—
Vitarli	65	77	59
Gogo Yubari	65	72	40
Nasneen	65	74	26

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Vitarli	13d ago	Quick return
Cool Run	20d ago	Fit
Nasneen	24d ago	Fit
Chumbaa	24d ago	Fit
Alfa Moonstone	26d ago	Fit
Gogo Yubari	36d ago	Fit
Lady Nunthorpe	43d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.