BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

18:15

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap

Date 2023-11-02

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,873

Winning Time 1m 28.15s (slow by 4.35s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Star Zinc (IRE) Callum Rodriguez · Rebecca Menzies	11/8F	Won
2nd	Mark's Choice (IRE) William Pyle · Gemma Tutty	17/2	1.25
3rd	Soames Forsyte (GB) Tom Eaves · Michael Herrington	4/1	1.25
4th	Kelpie Grey (GB) Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie	4/1	1.5
5th	Miss Britain (IRE) Billy Garritty · Ian McInnes	40/1	.75
6th	Explorers Way (IRE) Ben Robinson · Brian Ellison	14/1	2.75
7th	Lady Manyara (IRE) Sam James · K R Burke	40/1	.5
8th	Vince Le Prince (GB) David Allan · Tim Easterby	7/1	3.75

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (8)	Star Zinc Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Rebecca Menzies	137	—	060830	69	82	53	16d	—	—	-18	18.3	0.38/1	6/4 40%
Back on his last winning mark after a luckless effort here last time; interesting
6 (4)	Kelpie Grey Grey J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	134	—	276801	67	78	-	21d	—	—	+2	19.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Half-brother to three Tapeta winners; there can't be any complaints about a 2lb rise
4 (7)	Soames Forsyte Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	135	—	973787	67	80	47	41d	—	—	-5	9.2	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Not had much luck with the draw lately and is on an attractive mark back on Tapeta; chance
NR (10)	Unsung Hero Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Heather Main	J:Jack Mitchell T:Heather Main	134	b	07-004	66	78	37	34d	—	—	-3	6.7	2.25/1	10 10%
More in first-time blinkers here a month ago and that gave something to build on
7 (6)	Vince Le Prince Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	133	tp	0-9061	66	78	-	51d	—	—	-4	7.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Only been nudged up 1lb ahead of this AW debut (half-brother to a dual Polytrack winner)
1 (5)	Mark's Choice Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Gemma Tutty	J:William Pyle(5) T:Gemma Tutty	137	—	480854	69	79	-	31d	—	—	-1	7.1	2.50/1	11 9%
Regressive; long time since he ran at beyond 6f and this is just his second run on the AW
10 (1)	Explorers Way Chestnut J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	130	p	596191	62	79	48	27d	—	—	+12	20.2	2.50/1	11 9%
Easily won a 0-52 over C&D a month ago; this is tougher upped a hefty 10lb
8 (9)	Lady Manyara Chestnut J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	132	—	6397-	65	-	-	373d	—	—	+3	6.1	6.75/1	28 4%
Didn't go on last season; returns from a year off and the market will help
3 (2)	Miss Britain Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Ian McInnes	J:Billy Garritty T:Ian McInnes	135	eb	274870	67	80	-	23d	—	—	+2	5.1	8.00/1	33 3%
Lost her way for this yard but worth a market check back on Tapeta in first-time headgear
NR (3)	Eagle Creek Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	131	—	800600	63	75	49	2d	—	—	-6	6.8	9.75/1	40 3%
Veteran who's regressed over the last year; hard to recommend

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Star Zinc	6/4	11/8	6/4	6/4	11/8
Kelpie Grey	4	4	7/2	4	4
Soames Forsyte	5	5/1	9/2	9/2	5
Unsung Hero	10	8	7	8	8
Vince Le Prince	7	13/2	6	13/2	13/2
Mark's Choice	11	9/1	8	10	11
Explorers Way	11	9	10	10	10
Lady Manyara	28	25	22	28	28
Miss Britain	33	28	25	33	33
Eagle Creek	33	40	28	40	SP

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Explorers Way

20.2

OR: 3 Form: 15 Odds: 2.2

2nd

Kelpie Grey

19.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 10 Odds: 5

7/2

3rd

Star Zinc

18.3

OR: 4.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 11.4

6/4

Soames Forsyte

9.2

OR: 4.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 4

5/1

Vince Le Prince

7.1

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Mark's Choice

7.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Eagle Creek

6.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.5

Unsung Hero

6.7

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

Lady Manyara

6.1

OR: 3.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.9

Miss Britain

5.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Star Zinc	69	82	53
Mark's Choice	69	79	—
Kelpie Grey	67	78	—
Soames Forsyte	67	80	47
Miss Britain	67	80	—
Unsung Hero	66	78	37
Vince Le Prince	66	78	—
Lady Manyara	65	—	—
Eagle Creek	63	75	49
Explorers Way	62	79	48

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Eagle Creek	2d ago	Quick return
Star Zinc	16d ago	Fit
Kelpie Grey	21d ago	Fit
Miss Britain	23d ago	Fit
Explorers Way	27d ago	Fit
Mark's Choice	31d ago	Fit
Unsung Hero	34d ago	Fit
Soames Forsyte	41d ago	Fit
Vince Le Prince	51d ago	Fresh
Lady Manyara	373d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.