Racing TV Fillies' Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

17:05

Racing TV Fillies' Handicap

Date 2023-11-06

Distance 1m2f219y

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £6,281

Winning Time 2m 18.61s (slow by 0.71s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Folk Star (GB) Callum Shepherd · David Simcock	6/1	Won
2nd	Haseefah (GB) Rossa Ryan · Alan King	11/2	0.3
3rd	Miss Dolly Rocker (GB) Kieran Shoemark · Roger Teal	11/4F	1.75
4th	Warren Hill (IRE) David Egan · Roger Varian	9/2	6.5
5th	Gentle Whinny (IRE) Cieren Fallon · Denis Coakley	18/1	0.1
6th	Thebeautifulgame (GB) Jack Mitchell · Tom Clover	18/1	1
7th	Showy (GB) Rob Hornby · Jonathan Portman	14/1	0.3
8th	Now Then Wendy (GB) Richard Kingscote · Hughie Morrison	20/1	11
9th	Miss Dynamic (GB) Joe Fanning · Charlie Johnston	18/1	6.5
10th	Arenas Del Tiempo (GB) Paddy Bradley · Simon Dow	14/1	1.75
11th	Orange Martini (GB) David Probert · Andrew Balding	8/1	7

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (7)	Miss Dolly Rocker Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Roger Teal	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Roger Teal	129	—	2-2122	73	87	-	35d	—	—	-8	16.5	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Promise in both course runs; career best when second at Bath latest; solid candidate
1 (6)	Haseefah Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	142	—	-53575	82	89	-	40d	—	—	-2	13.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Handicapper on top this year but today's drop in class could see her in a better light
5 (5)	Warren Hill Bay J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	131	—	332130	75	85	-	41d	—	—	+5	19.5	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Ready win at Nottingham in Aug; soft ground excuses latest low-key run; not fully exposed
10 (3)	Folk Star Chestnut J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	J:Callum Shepherd T:David Simcock	124	—	373314	68	86	75	39d	—	—	+7	16.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Two 3rds and a C&D win from 3 Kempton visits; progress stalled latest but yard going well
9 (10)	Orange Martini Chestnut J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	127	—	2-6345	71	88	-	14d	—	—	+2	11.3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
0-7 but has shown promise and the switch to AW could prove beneficial; considered
6 (4)	Gentle Whinny Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:Denis Coakley	J:Cieren Fallon T:Denis Coakley	131	—	541-04	75	80	-	146d	—	—	+2	8	3.25/1	14 7%
1m novice winner as a 2yo; yet to shine in two handicaps this year; upped in trip today
8 (2)	Arenas Del Tiempo b/br J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Simon Dow	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Simon Dow	128	—	285263	68	86	80	28d	—	—	+6	11.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Over two years since last of her three wins; twice placed this autumn but others stronger
2 (8)	Thebeautifulgame Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	137	—	36-735	77	86	-	37d	—	—	+3	8.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Could improve for this new trip and she's on a fair mark if that is the case
11 (11)	Showy Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	123	—	084525	67	85	-	28d	—	—	+3	9.7	3.75/1	16 6%
0-6 but shown promise; didn't get home over 11.5f latest; still has potential; AW debut
3 (9)	Now Then Wendy Black J:Richard Kingscote T:Hughie Morrison	J:Richard Kingscote T:Hughie Morrison	134	—	4-148	74	84	-	21d	—	—	+3	7.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Unexposed mare who could benefit from a return to AW; perhaps sharper for latest run too
4 (1)	Miss Dynamic Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	133	—	913-	77	85	-	430d	—	—	+14	17.8	5.25/1	22 5%
1m win as a 2yo; bred to stay well but has a 430-day absence to overcome; handicap debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Miss Dolly Rocker	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	5/2
Haseefah	9/2	9/2	9/2	4	9/2
Warren Hill	5/1	5	5	11/2	5
Folk Star	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Orange Martini	9/1	17/2	17/2	15/2	9/1
Gentle Whinny	12	12/1	14	11	12/1
Arenas Del Tiempo	16	14	14	12	14
Thebeautifulgame	16	16	16	16	16
Showy	16	16	16	12	16
Now Then Wendy	16	20	16	18	20
Miss Dynamic	22	22	18	22	22

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Warren Hill

19.5

OR: 6.3 Form: 9.2 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

Miss Dynamic

17.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 10 Odds: 1.1

3rd

Folk Star

16.8

OR: 4.5 Form: 9.4 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Miss Dolly Rocker

16.5

OR: 5.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Haseefah

13.3

OR: 8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Arenas Del Tiempo

11.6

OR: 4.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.6

Orange Martini

11.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Showy

9.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.9

Thebeautifulgame

8.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Gentle Whinny

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Now Then Wendy

7.2

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Haseefah	82	89	—
Thebeautifulgame	77	86	—
Miss Dynamic	77	85	—
Warren Hill	75	85	—
Gentle Whinny	75	80	—
Now Then Wendy	74	84	—
Miss Dolly Rocker	73	87	—
Orange Martini	71	88	—
Folk Star	68	86	75
Arenas Del Tiempo	68	86	80
Showy	67	85	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Orange Martini	14d ago	Fit
Now Then Wendy	21d ago	Fit
Arenas Del Tiempo	28d ago	Fit
Showy	28d ago	Fit
Miss Dolly Rocker	35d ago	Fit
Thebeautifulgame	37d ago	Fit
Folk Star	39d ago	Fit
Haseefah	40d ago	Fit
Warren Hill	41d ago	Fit
Gentle Whinny	146d ago	Long break
Miss Dynamic	430d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m2f219y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.