BetUK. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa Handicap (Div I) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:15

BetUK. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa Handicap (Div I)

Date 2023-11-07

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (4)	Khabib b/br J:P J McDonald T:Ray Craggs	J:P J McDonald T:Ray Craggs	130	p	966452	75	94	-	31d	—	—	-3	17.4	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Went close at Redcar last month and this two-time C&D winner could be bang there once more
2 (1)	Nelson Gay Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Michael Dods	133	p	831918	78	96	77	31d	—	—	+7	22	1.13/1	9/2 18%
4-5 on Tapeta (including a C&D win) and he should play a leading role
4 (2)	Castan Chestnut J:Graham Lee T:Bryan Smart	J:Graham Lee T:Bryan Smart	132	—	832781	77	94	84	36d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+9	22.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Back to form with C&D win last month and is unexposed on AW; could have more to offer
6 (3)	Treacherous Bay J:Luke Morris T:Ed de Giles	J:Luke Morris T:Ed de Giles	131	—	475924	76	94	69	23d	—	—	+2	13.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
9yo who has been in good form over 6f; not ruled out now back down in trip
8 (8)	Reigning Profit Chestnut J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	130	v	151984	75	94	66	12d	—	—	+1	12.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Close 3rd in this last year; fair run at Lingfield recently after break; could build on it
1 (9)	Strong Johnson Bay J:Jason Hart T:Paul Midgley	J:Jason Hart T:Paul Midgley	137	—	120108	82	93	-	17d	—	—	+7	16.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Down the field the last twice but on slow turf; two wins this year and could be involved
9 (7)	Albegone Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Tim Easterby	J:Cam Hardie T:Tim Easterby	124	b	151591	69	95	-	22d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	+14	19.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Inconsistent this season but three wins from last six starts and entitled to respect
5 (6)	Open Market Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	131	—	622324	76	88	51	158d	—	—	+9	15.7	3.75/1	16 6%
Returns from a break on a competitive mark but this headstrong filly isn't straightforward
3 (5)	Flag Flying Bay J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	132	et	958-00	77	73	-	53d	—	—	+5	7.5	9.75/1	40 3%
Lightly raced 3yo; major turnaround needed in first-time eyeshield/tongue-tie combination

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Khabib	7/2	10/3	10/3	10/3	3
Nelson Gay	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	4
Castan	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Treacherous	7	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Reigning Profit	11/2	6	6/1	11/2	13/2
Strong Johnson	7	15/2	7	7	8
Albegone	16	14	14	14	12
Open Market	12	12	12	12	16
Flag Flying	40	40	40	40	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Castan

22.9

OR: 6.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 4

9/2

2nd

Nelson Gay

OR: 7 Form: 10.6 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Albegone

19.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 13 Odds: 1.6

Khabib

17.4

OR: 6.3 Form: 5 Odds: 6.2

7/2

Strong Johnson

16.9

OR: 8 Form: 6 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Open Market

15.7

OR: 6.5 Form: 7.5 Odds: 1.7

Treacherous

13.3

OR: 6.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Reigning Profit

12.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Flag Flying

7.5

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Strong Johnson	82	93	—
Nelson Gay	78	96	77
Castan	77	94	84
Flag Flying	77	73	—
Treacherous	76	94	69
Open Market	76	88	51
Khabib	75	94	—
Reigning Profit	75	94	66
Albegone	69	95	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Reigning Profit	12d ago	Quick return
Strong Johnson	17d ago	Fit
Albegone	22d ago	Fit
Treacherous	23d ago	Fit
Khabib	31d ago	Fit
Nelson Gay	31d ago	Fit
Castan	36d ago	Fit
Flag Flying	53d ago	Fresh
Open Market	158d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.