BetUK. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa Handicap (Div II) – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:50

BetUK. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-11-07

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (9)	Milbanke Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	132	—	520341	77	92	-	40d	—	—	-1	28.1	0.25/1	2 50%
Showed good pace to win over 6f at Pontefract; this first crack at 5f is well worth a go
7 (3)	Le Beau Garcon Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	130	—	462392	75	95	58	22d	—	—	-1	20.9	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Runner-up at Musselburgh last time when back down to 5f and could be in the mix once more
4 (6)	Rambuso Creek Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	132	—	903451	77	96	-	28d	—	—	+7	22.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Did it in good style at Leicester last time after a wind op; 5lb rise may not stop him
1 (7)	Royal Parade Bay J:Jason Hart T:Michael Appleby	J:Jason Hart T:Michael Appleby	137	p	109840	82	93	-	45d	—	—	+1	10.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Patchy form and may be better at 6f, but ran really well on sole previous course visit
6 (4)	Pockley Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	131	—	31560R	76	91	87	55d	—	—	+1	9.5	2.75/1	12 8%
Lots of good form here but comes with major warning having refused to race at Southwell
8 (1)	Show Me Show Me Bay J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	125	v	119005	70	95	31	22d	—	—	+3	8.4	4.25/1	18 6%
Won two in a row in August but hasn't shone on his four subsequent starts
5 (8)	Vadamiah Bay J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	J:Graham Lee T:Paul Midgley	131	—	-59029	76	92	-	22d	—	—	+6	11.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Down the field at Musselburgh latest but runner-up at Ripon previously; not ruled out
2 (2)	Ey Up It's Maggie Bay J:Brandon Wilkie(7) T:Tony Coyle	J:Brandon Wilkie(7) T:Tony Coyle	132	p	551455	77	95	-	20d	—	—	+7	11	4.75/1	20 5%
Fair efforts since winning in August and might not be far away; AW debut
9 (5)	Astapor Bay J:Cam Hardie T:John David Riches	J:Cam Hardie T:John David Riches	119	—	131966	64	90	62	7d	—	—	+4	8.3	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Four 5f wins earlier this year; didn't see out 6f here recently; could be firmly involved

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Milbanke	2	2	2	2	2
Le Beau Garcon	3	3	3	3/1	3
Rambuso Creek	5	5	9/2	5	11/2
Royal Parade	15/2	7	13/2	7	15/2
Pockley	12	10	15/2	9	10
Show Me Show Me	18	16	14	16/1	16
Vadamiah	16	16	16/1	16/1	16
Ey Up It's Maggie	20	16	16	16/1	16
Astapor	16	20	20/1	20	18

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Milbanke

28.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 12.5 Odds: 8.9

2nd

Rambuso Creek

22.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 10.9 Odds: 4.4

11/2

3rd

Le Beau Garcon

20.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 8 Odds: 6.7

3/1

Vadamiah

11.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.4

16/1

Ey Up It's Maggie

OR: 6.8 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

Royal Parade

10.9

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Pockley

9.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 0.5 Odds: 2.5

Show Me Show Me

8.4

OR: 5 Form: 2 Odds: 1.4

Astapor

8.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Royal Parade	82	93	—
Milbanke	77	92	—
Rambuso Creek	77	96	—
Ey Up It's Maggie	77	95	—
Pockley	76	91	87
Vadamiah	76	92	—
Le Beau Garcon	75	95	58
Show Me Show Me	70	95	31
Astapor	64	90	62

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Astapor	7d ago	Quick return
Ey Up It's Maggie	20d ago	Fit
Le Beau Garcon	22d ago	Fit
Show Me Show Me	22d ago	Fit
Vadamiah	22d ago	Fit
Rambuso Creek	28d ago	Fit
Milbanke	40d ago	Fit
Royal Parade	45d ago	Fit
Pockley	55d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Vadamiah	Front Runner
Astapor	Front Runner

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 9 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.