Havens Hospice Nursery Handicap – Chelmsford (AW)

Chelmsford (AW)

18:30

Havens Hospice Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-11-09

Distance 5f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £4,004

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (1)	Westend Avenue Chestnut J:Kieran Shoemark T:Adrian Nicholls	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Adrian Nicholls	137	—	357	62	62	-	20d	—	—	-10	10.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Gives the impression this sharper test will suit on AW/handicap debut; possibilities
6 (5)	Lady Bouquet Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Philip Kirby	J:Billy Loughnane T:Philip Kirby	131	—	733126	56	67	50	16d	—	—	-1	16.7	0.75/1	4 25%
Has form figures of 3312 in handicaps when ridden prominently; not dismissed
4 (6)	Tomshalfsister Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Robert Cowell	J:Jack Mitchell T:Robert Cowell	134	—	576	59	64	44	14d	—	—	-8	6.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
The type to improve now handicapping; related to winners for this yard; interesting
3 (11)	Nouveaux Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Rae Guest	J:Callum Shepherd T:Rae Guest	135	—	738431	60	65	58	26d	—	—	+5	19.2	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Made all in C&D contest last month; may improve further on this surface; major player
8 (3)	Forgotten Treasure Bay J:David Egan T:William Knight	J:David Egan T:William Knight	128	h	8085	53	63	46	26d	—	—	-9	4.8	1.00/1	5 20%
Ties in with Nouveaux on C&D running last month; may be capable of progress
7 (4)	Law Of Average Bay J:Joey Haynes T:Chelsea Banham	J:Joey Haynes T:Chelsea Banham	129	—	7580	54	66	52	29d	—	—	-5	3.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Possible improver now handicapping and dropped back in distance
10 (10)	Belvoir Kitten Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:David C Griffiths	J:Kieran O'Neill T:David C Griffiths	120	—	706840	45	65	45	20d	—	—	-3	1.2	4.75/1	20 5%
Not particularly solid on form
2 (2)	Talking Rubbish Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Peter Crate	J:Darragh Keenan T:Peter Crate	135	—	5368	60	66	6	7d	—	—	+1	5	6.75/1	28 4%
Trailed home last in 6f event here last week; return to 5f may help
11 (8)	Flemish Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Tom Ward	J:Trevor Whelan T:Tom Ward	120	t	680655	45	62	36	66d	—	—	-3	1.1	8.00/1	33 3%
Best RPR came on sole AW attempt; return to this sphere may have positive effect
5 (12)	Blow Me Away Chestnut J:Luke Catton(5) T:Stuart Williams	J:Luke Catton(5) T:Stuart Williams	132	t	700900	57	64	37	40d	—	—	0	2.5	8.00/1	33 3%
Holds very weak claims on overall form
12 (9)	Perelle Bay J:Rhiain Ingram(3) T:David Evans	J:Rhiain Ingram(3) T:David Evans	120	t	30057	45	57	34	37d	—	—	-2	1.4	9.75/1	40 3%
Has poor RPRs
9 (7)	Someone Like You Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Martin Dunne	J:Dylan Hogan T:Martin Dunne	125	b	676097	50	56	22	7d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.25/1	50 2%
Chance depends on whether she improves for new trip and first-time blinkers

Horse	bet365	Coral
Westend Avenue	11/4	10/3
Lady Bouquet	4	4
Tomshalfsister	9/2	9/2
Nouveaux	5	11/2
Forgotten Treasure	5	5
Law Of Average	11	12/1
Belvoir Kitten	20	20
Talking Rubbish	28	22
Flemish	33	28
Blow Me Away	33	28
Perelle	40	40
Someone Like You	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Nouveaux

19.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 12.7 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

Lady Bouquet

16.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 10 Odds: 5.2

3rd

Westend Avenue

10.7

OR: 3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 6.2

10/3

Tomshalfsister

6.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4

9/2

Talking Rubbish

OR: 2.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1

Forgotten Treasure

4.8

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

Law Of Average

3.4

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

12/1

Blow Me Away

2.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Perelle

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.8

Belvoir Kitten

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Flemish

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Someone Like You

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Westend Avenue	62	62	—
Nouveaux	60	65	58
Talking Rubbish	60	66	6
Tomshalfsister	59	64	44
Blow Me Away	57	64	37
Lady Bouquet	56	67	50
Law Of Average	54	66	52
Forgotten Treasure	53	63	46
Someone Like You	50	56	22
Belvoir Kitten	45	65	45
Flemish	45	62	36
Perelle	45	57	34

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Talking Rubbish	7d ago	Quick return
Someone Like You	7d ago	Quick return
Tomshalfsister	14d ago	Fit
Lady Bouquet	16d ago	Fit
Westend Avenue	20d ago	Fit
Belvoir Kitten	20d ago	Fit
Nouveaux	26d ago	Fit
Forgotten Treasure	26d ago	Fit
Law Of Average	29d ago	Fit
Perelle	37d ago	Fit
Blow Me Away	40d ago	Fit
Flemish	66d ago	Fresh