Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year. Nursery Handicap

Kempton (AW)

16:25

Date 2023-11-15

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (7)	Hearitfortheboys Chestnut J:Jack Mitchell T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Jack Mitchell T:Nigel Tinkler	137	—	575	62	65	28	13d	—	—	-18	12.4	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Could take another step forward now handicapping at a modest level
4 (1)	Perfect Spring Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	134	—	6367	59	65	-	112d	—	—	-15	11.8	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Bred to do better still; possible improver on AW debut back from layoff
12 (4)	Birkie Boy Bay J:Olivia Tubb(7) T:J S Moore	J:Olivia Tubb(7) T:J S Moore	123	—	432371	48	69	50	36d	—	—	+5	16.9	1.50/1	7 14%
Modest gelding but opened his account at Brighton last time and can be respected
7 (6)	Black Jack Davey Brown J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Rachel Cook & John Bridger	J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Rachel Cook & John Bridger	129	—	483746	54	63	41	19d	—	—	-7	5.5	1.50/1	7 14%
In-form maiden; not beaten far at Lingfield last time; could go well
3 (11)	Cogsworth Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Chris Dwyer	J:Marco Ghiani T:Chris Dwyer	135	—	503070	60	58	34	21d	—	—	-1	5.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Poor form since handicapping; drops in grade but is far from solid
5 (3)	Meet Me In Meraki Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:David Evans	J:Darragh Keenan T:David Evans	133	—	757508	58	63	45	20d	0W/0P 1 run	—	-3	3.7	3.75/1	16 6%
May be capable of better off this reduced mark back down in distance
10 (5)	Ludberg Chestnut J:Finley Marsh T:Charlie Wallis	J:Finley Marsh T:Charlie Wallis	124	—	05364	49	68	38	13d	—	—	-2	2.9	3.75/1	16 6%
Has been shaping as if a bigger effort may be on the way; one to consider
NR (2)	No Sinner Bay J:Shariq Mohd(7) T:Bill Turner	J:Shariq Mohd(7) T:Bill Turner	133	—	963006	58	63	50	27d	—	—	-1	4.5	6.00/1	25 4%
Poor form since finishing third at Brighton in May; belated handicap debut
9 (12)	Jungle Dance Bay J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	J:Luke Morris T:John Butler	127	—	500540	52	64	55	46d	—	—	-2	1.5	6.75/1	28 4%
Inconsistent sort but may improve for gelding operation
8 (9)	Rust E Boy Bay J:Alexandra McDonnell(7) T:David Evans	J:Alexandra McDonnell(7) T:David Evans	127	—	885668	52	62	34	30d	—	—	-1	1.2	12.25/1	50 2%
May do better off current mark back down in trip
2 (10)	Quiet Affair Chestnut J:David Egan T:Amy Murphy	J:David Egan T:Amy Murphy	135	tb	30669	60	66	42	19d	—	—	-1	4.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Chance partly depends on whether the change of headgear helps
11 (8)	Run Joy Run Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Adam West	J:Callum Shepherd T:Adam West	124	—	667	49	65	50	149d	—	—	-2	0.7	16.25/1	66 2%
Far from solid on her maiden/novice form; returns from an absence

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Hearitfortheboys	13/8	7/4	15/8	2	2
Perfect Spring	5/2	5/2	5/2	11/4	5/2
Birkie Boy	7	6	6	6	6
Black Jack Davey	7	6	6	6	6
Cogsworth	12	14	11	12	12
Meet Me In Meraki	14	14	12	16	16
Ludberg	16	16	14	16	16
No Sinner	25	20	18	22	22
Jungle Dance	25	25	22	28	28
Rust E Boy	50	33	33	33	33
Quiet Affair	66	50	28	14	50
Run Joy Run	66	40	33	40	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Birkie Boy

16.9

OR: 0 Form: 13.6 Odds: 3.3

2nd

Hearitfortheboys

12.4

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 9.4

15/8

3rd

Perfect Spring

11.8

OR: 2.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 8

11/4

Black Jack Davey

5.5

OR: 1 Form: 0.9 Odds: 3.6

Cogsworth

5.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.7

No Sinner

4.5

OR: 2 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.6

Quiet Affair

4.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.4

Meet Me In Meraki

3.7

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Ludberg

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

Jungle Dance

1.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Rust E Boy

1.2

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Run Joy Run

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Hearitfortheboys	62	65	28
Cogsworth	60	58	34
Quiet Affair	60	66	42
Perfect Spring	59	65	—
Meet Me In Meraki	58	63	45
No Sinner	58	63	50
Black Jack Davey	54	63	41
Jungle Dance	52	64	55
Rust E Boy	52	62	34
Ludberg	49	68	38
Run Joy Run	49	65	50
Birkie Boy	48	69	50

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Hearitfortheboys	13d ago	Quick return
Ludberg	13d ago	Quick return
Black Jack Davey	19d ago	Fit
Quiet Affair	19d ago	Fit
Meet Me In Meraki	20d ago	Fit
Cogsworth	21d ago	Fit
No Sinner	27d ago	Fit
Rust E Boy	30d ago	Fit
Birkie Boy	36d ago	Fit
Jungle Dance	46d ago	Fresh
Perfect Spring	112d ago	Long break
Run Joy Run	149d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.