BetUK Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

14:36

BetUK Churchill Stakes (Listed Race)

Date 2023-11-18

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 1

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £28,355

Winning Time 2m 4.05s (slow by 2.75s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Blue Trail (IRE) James Doyle · Charlie Appleby	4/1	Won
2nd	Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) David Egan · Roger Varian	6/1	0.2
3rd	Forest Of Dean (GB) Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	12/1	1.25
4th	Regal Reality (GB) Richard Kingscote · Sir Michael Stoute	5/2F	1.75
5th	Rousay (IRE) Rossa Ryan · Richard Hannon	12/1	0.3
6th	Foxes Tales (IRE) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding	3/1	0.1
7th	Sir Busker (IRE) Jim Crowley · William Knight	16/1	0.1

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (7)	Regal Reality Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Sir Michael Stoute	J:Richard Kingscote T:Sir Michael Stoute	135	—	-41332	112	120	-	50d	—	—	+6	36.5	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Has had really good year, including 8.5f Group 3 win on turf; just as good on AW/over 1m2f
2 (4)	Foxes Tales Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	133	—	9-3160	111	123	86	151d	—	—	0	21.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
AW Listed win in April; held on turf in May/June but can bounce back returned to AW
3 (1)	Blue Trail Bay J:James Doyle T:Charlie Appleby	J:James Doyle T:Charlie Appleby	130	—	20-515	111	124	-	214d	—	—	+3	20.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
11l winner at Meydan in February; that was smart but his British form is below that level
6 (5)	Tyrrhenian Sea Grey J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	130	—	50-270	103	121	77	49d	—	—	+6	15.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Well below par last twice but claims if recapturing February's Winter Derby form
7 (6)	Rousay Grey Roan J:Rossa Ryan T:Richard Hannon	J:Rossa Ryan T:Richard Hannon	125	—	484433	101	116	40	36d	—	—	+14	19.2	3.75/1	16 6%
In frame at Listed/Group 3 level lately but needs to raise her game to win this race
5 (2)	Sir Busker Bay J:Jim Crowley T:William Knight	J:Jim Crowley T:William Knight	130	v	-29079	107	119	-	35d	—	—	+12	16.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Below par when second in 1m Listed here in February and has continued below par since
4 (3)	Forest Of Dean Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	130	p	45-164	102	121	70	225d	—	—	+9	14.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Pretty smart on AW but behind two of these rivals in Winter Derby and off since April

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Regal Reality	7/4	7/4	13/8	7/4	13/8
Foxes Tales	3	3	3	3	11/4
Blue Trail	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	4
Tyrrhenian Sea	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	7
Rousay	16	16	14	16	16
Sir Busker	16	16	14	16	16
Forest Of Dean	20	16	16	16	16

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Regal Reality

36.5

OR: 15.5 Form: 11.6 Odds: 9.4

7/4

2nd

Foxes Tales

21.9

OR: 15.3 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

11/4

3rd

Blue Trail

20.3

OR: 15.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

Rousay

19.2

OR: 12.8 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1.4

Sir Busker

16.6

OR: 14.3 Form: 1 Odds: 1.4

Tyrrhenian Sea

15.9

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Forest Of Dean

14.4

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Regal Reality	112	120	—
Foxes Tales	111	123	86
Blue Trail	111	124	—
Sir Busker	107	119	—
Tyrrhenian Sea	103	121	77
Forest Of Dean	102	121	70
Rousay	101	116	40

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Sir Busker	35d ago	Fit
Rousay	36d ago	Fit
Tyrrhenian Sea	49d ago	Fresh
Regal Reality	50d ago	Fresh
Foxes Tales	151d ago	Long break
Blue Trail	214d ago	Long break
Forest Of Dean	225d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 1m2f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.