BetMGM Take Time Out During #SGWeek23! Nursery Handicap – Wolverhampton (AW)

Wolverhampton (AW)

18:00

BetMGM Take Time Out During #SGWeek23! Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-11-18

Distance 6f20y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,873

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (1)	Bulldog Drummond Bay J:Neil Callan T:George Boughey	J:Neil Callan T:George Boughey	133	tb	334282	70	78	67	16d	—	—	+1	18.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Second at Chelmsford last time was a personal best; well drawn for a prominent racer
8 (4)	Whoop Whoop Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rob Hornby T:Ralph Beckett	132	b	424925	69	80	80	47d	—	—	-3	14.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Seven-race maiden; beaten favourite three times; now wears blinkers
11 (10)	Havana Smoke Grey J:Kieran O'Neill T:Dylan Cunha	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Dylan Cunha	131	—	783	68	78	57	14d	—	—	-3	11.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Significant progress when third at Chelmsford; open to more improvement now handicapping
1 (6)	I'm Spartacus Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	135	—	173717	72	78	36	18d	—	—	+7	15.9	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Dual 6f winner at Newcastle; needs to bounce back from poor last run but it's possible
3 (3)	Princess Alex Bay J:Sam James T:K R Burke	J:Sam James T:K R Burke	135	—	471543	72	79	-	54d	—	—	+5	14.2	1.75/1	8 13%
Respectable third over 5f at Hamilton last time; should stay 6f; AW debut
4 (2)	Ninety Nine Bay J:Oliver Stammers T:Grant Tuer	J:Oliver Stammers T:Grant Tuer	133	—	4163	70	79	-	31d	—	—	+6	15.7	2.00/1	9 11%
Signed off for Richard Fahey with good third at Nottingham; interesting on AW debut
7 (9)	Split The Profit Bay J:Callum Shepherd T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Callum Shepherd T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	132	—	905	69	81	43	21d	—	—	0	6.5	3.25/1	14 7%
Marked improvement on third run when fifth at Chelmsford; more to come on handicap debut
6 (7)	Newport Bay Chestnut J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	132	—	6545U	69	75	43	47d	—	—	+1	6.4	3.25/1	14 7%
Late headway after tardy start on most recent completed outing; could still be unexposed
9 (12)	Alfa Whiteburd Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	J:Tom Eaves T:Craig Lidster	131	—	230458	68	76	46	7d	—	—	+1	6.5	3.75/1	16 6%
0-7; better than result suggests (short of room) when eighth of ten at Newcastle; chance
2 (11)	Cotai Vision Chestnut J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	135	—	401641	72	79	52	56d	—	—	+14	20.1	5.25/1	22 5%
Took advantage of a drop in grade when winning C&D seller for Ed Walker; this is tougher
10 (8)	Chumbaa Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	131	p	115654	68	72	24	16d	—	—	+5	7.2	9.75/1	40 3%
Two summer wins but not in quite the same form since; having 18th run and looks exposed
12 (5)	Petra Celera Bay J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:K R Burke	J:Pierre-Louis Jamin T:K R Burke	129	—	313070	66	77	-	36d	—	—	+5	7.6	12.25/1	50 2%
Disappointing on her last three starts and urgently needs a reversal of fortune

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Bulldog Drummond	4	4	7/2	7/2	4
Whoop Whoop	7/2	4	7/2	10/3	4
Havana Smoke	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	5
I'm Spartacus	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Princess Alex	8	8	8	8	8
Ninety Nine	9	15/2	7	15/2	8
Split The Profit	14	14	11	14	12
Newport Bay	14	14	14	12	14
Alfa Whiteburd	16	16	16	14	16
Cotai Vision	22	20	20	12	20
Chumbaa	40	40	33	33	33
Petra Celera	50	33	28	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Cotai Vision

20.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 13 Odds: 1.6

2nd

Bulldog Drummond

18.1

OR: 5 Form: 8.1 Odds: 5

7/2

3rd

I'm Spartacus

15.9

OR: 5.5 Form: 7.9 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Ninety Nine

15.7

OR: 5 Form: 8 Odds: 2.7

Whoop Whoop

14.5

OR: 4.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 5.2

7/2

Princess Alex

14.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 6 Odds: 2.7

Havana Smoke

11.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 3 Odds: 4

9/2

Petra Celera

7.6

OR: 4 Form: 2.9 Odds: 0.7

Chumbaa

7.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 2 Odds: 0.7

Split The Profit

6.5

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Alfa Whiteburd

6.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 1.4

Newport Bay

6.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
I'm Spartacus	72	78	36
Princess Alex	72	79	—
Cotai Vision	72	79	52
Bulldog Drummond	70	78	67
Ninety Nine	70	79	—
Whoop Whoop	69	80	80
Split The Profit	69	81	43
Newport Bay	69	75	43
Havana Smoke	68	78	57
Alfa Whiteburd	68	76	46
Chumbaa	68	72	24
Petra Celera	66	77	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Alfa Whiteburd	7d ago	Quick return
Havana Smoke	14d ago	Fit
Bulldog Drummond	16d ago	Fit
Chumbaa	16d ago	Fit
I'm Spartacus	18d ago	Fit
Split The Profit	21d ago	Fit
Ninety Nine	31d ago	Fit
Petra Celera	36d ago	Fit
Whoop Whoop	47d ago	Fresh
Newport Bay	47d ago	Fresh
Princess Alex	54d ago	Fresh
Cotai Vision	56d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Cotai Vision	Front Runner
Bulldog Drummond	Prominent

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 6f20y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.