Mr Binman Christmas Racing Festival 26th - 29th December Handicap Hurdle

Limerick

14:45

Date 2023-11-21

Distance 2m5f

Class

Going Heavy

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €5,900

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
13	Lyla Garrity Bay J:Niall Moore(7) T:Maike Magnussen	J:Niall Moore(7) T:Maike Magnussen	149	—	F/08-5	83	103	-	25d	—	—	-3	12.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Maiden was beaten only 4l on return at Sligo and a chance with improvement likely
3	Happy Dreams Bay J:Sam Ewing T:Michael J McDonagh	J:Sam Ewing T:Michael J McDonagh	165	h	121U-3	99	102	64	53d	—	—	+2	21	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Dual chase winner at this track; can come on from Gowran hurdle return and a player
2	Cosmic Rock Bay J:Tom Kelly(7) T:Eoin Christopher McCarthy	J:Tom Kelly(7) T:Eoin Christopher McCarthy	165	t	1/81/5	99	100	76	31d	—	—	+10	20.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Course winner ran well back here on return after a long absence; tongue-tie on; chance
9	Kalanisi Dubh Black J:Conor Brassil(5) T:Seamus Fahey	J:Conor Brassil(5) T:Seamus Fahey	159	—	240-66	93	108	44	25d	—	—	+3	13.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Winner over 2m last year but stays this trip; solid Sligo run last time and a squeak
4	Shotgun Jack Bay J:Philip Donovan(5) T:Patrick G Kelly	J:Philip Donovan(5) T:Patrick G Kelly	165	—	-00051	99	109	63	24d	—	—	+13	25.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Much improved to run away with a Galway 3m handicap last time; 14lb higher now
1	Great Island Bay J:Ethan O'Sullivan(7) T:Eoin Griffin	J:Ethan O'Sullivan(7) T:Eoin Griffin	168	—	9B-513	102	103	70	16d	—	—	+5	16.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Wide margin Gowran winner but 16l back in 3rd at Cork since; needs more off the same mark
NR	Kilashee Bay J:TBC T:John Patrick Ryan	J: T:John Patrick Ryan	149	—	7254F2	83	101	-	26d	—	—	+4	16.9	2.75/1	12 8%
Mostly over fences lately; weakening when fell over hurdles two starts ago; reserve
14	Steelers Appeal Bay J:Niall Prendergast(7) T:D E Prendergast	J:Niall Prendergast(7) T:D E Prendergast	149	—	/696-6	83	95	22	31d	—	—	+3	10.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Maiden in all disciplines needs to improve from C&D comeback run but is possible
NR	Added Bonus Bay J:TBC T:Brendan Maurice Walsh	J: T:Brendan Maurice Walsh	147	tp	057729	81	105	76	37d	—	—	+3	14.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Maiden over hurdles after 25 starts; still, could get involved if on a going day; reserve
10	Another Ocana Bay J:Jack G Gilligan(7) T:L J Archdeacon	J:Jack G Gilligan(7) T:L J Archdeacon	158	—	336-50	92	101	19	5d	—	—	+3	13.6	3.25/1	14 7%
Good run over C&D but was poor at Punchestown 5 days ago, so has to rebound
5	My Friend The Wind Bay J:Conor McNamara T:E McNamara	J:Conor McNamara T:E McNamara	163	p	U0-134	97	107	44	23d	—	—	+8	13.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Won over hurdles in August and two solid chase runs since; a contender
11	Winter Carnival Bay J:Diarmuid Moloney(7) T:John Neilan	J:Diarmuid Moloney(7) T:John Neilan	158	—	-PU009	92	105	47	71d	—	—	+6	12.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Has shown enough ability to win in this grade but disappointing lately; has run well here
8	Vintage Gold Chestnut J:Gavin Brouder(5) T:John Joseph Murphy	J:Gavin Brouder(5) T:John Joseph Murphy	162	p	0-881F	97	106	62	59d	—	—	+8	13.1	4.25/1	18 6%
Won over 2m4f at Killarney and was running well when falling late at Listowel; chance
6	The Niffler Grey J:Ambrose McCurtin T:Eamonn O'Connell	J:Ambrose McCurtin T:Eamonn O'Connell	163	—	08080-	97	103	82	215d	—	—	+8	13.1	4.75/1	20 5%
Well beaten when last seen and has to return to his form of last year
12	Mason Lady Chestnut J:Richard Condon(5) T:Declan Queally	J:Richard Condon(5) T:Declan Queally	151	—	000	86	88	-	30d	—	—	+8	9.5	12.25/1	50 2%
Little to show for three maiden runs but should fare better in this grade
7	The Vegas Raider Bay J:Paul Cawley(7) T:K A Heffernan	J:Paul Cawley(7) T:K A Heffernan	163	tv	0-2076	97	102	67	49d	—	—	+11	12.1	19.75/1	80 1%
Flat winner ran well enough in a Galway handicap hurdle last time but needs more

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Lyla Garrity	5	5	5	5	9/2
Happy Dreams	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	7/2
Cosmic Rock	15/2	15/2	8	8	8
Kalanisi Dubh	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Shotgun Jack	13/2	13/2	7	13/2	7
Great Island	7	13/2	6	13/2	7
Kilashee	12	12	12	12	12
Steelers Appeal	14	12	12	12	14
Added Bonus	12	14	14	12	14
Another Ocana	14	12	12	12	12/1
My Friend The Wind	16	16	14	16	16
Winter Carnival	14	14	11	14	14
Vintage Gold	16	18	14	16	16
The Niffler	20	18	16	18	18/1
Mason Lady	50	40	40	40	40
The Vegas Raider	80	66	66	66	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Shotgun Jack

25.9

OR: 12.3 Form: 10 Odds: 3.6

13/2

2nd

Happy Dreams

OR: 12.3 Form: 3 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

Cosmic Rock

20.1

OR: 12.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Kilashee

16.9

OR: 8.3 Form: 5 Odds: 3.7

Great Island

16.1

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Added Bonus

14.7

OR: 7.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.5

Kalanisi Dubh

13.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Another Ocana

13.6

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

My Friend The Wind

13.1

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Vintage Gold

13.1

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

The Niffler

13.1

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Lyla Garrity

12.7

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Winter Carnival

12.2

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

The Vegas Raider

12.1

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

Steelers Appeal

10.2

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Mason Lady

9.5

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Great Island	102	103	70
Happy Dreams	99	102	64
Cosmic Rock	99	100	76
Shotgun Jack	99	109	63
My Friend The Wind	97	107	44
Vintage Gold	97	106	62
The Niffler	97	103	82
The Vegas Raider	97	102	67
Kalanisi Dubh	93	108	44
Another Ocana	92	101	19
Winter Carnival	92	105	47
Mason Lady	86	88	—
Lyla Garrity	83	103	—
Kilashee	83	101	—
Steelers Appeal	83	95	22
Added Bonus	81	105	76

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Another Ocana	5d ago	Quick return
Great Island	16d ago	Fit
My Friend The Wind	23d ago	Fit
Shotgun Jack	24d ago	Fit
Lyla Garrity	25d ago	Fit
Kalanisi Dubh	25d ago	Fit
Kilashee	26d ago	Fit
Mason Lady	30d ago	Fit
Cosmic Rock	31d ago	Fit
Steelers Appeal	31d ago	Fit
Added Bonus	37d ago	Fit
The Vegas Raider	49d ago	Fresh
Happy Dreams	53d ago	Fresh
Vintage Gold	59d ago	Fresh
Winter Carnival	71d ago	Fresh
The Niffler	215d ago	Long break