Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

18:15

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2023-11-24

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £5,129

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (5)	Al Rufaa Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Dylan Hogan T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	141	h	978891	87	101	85	7d	—	—	+1	27.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Will be 2lb higher than under the penalty from tomorrow; leading claims now back in form
2 (4)	Court Of Session Brown J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	J:Jack Mitchell T:Simon & Ed Crisford	138	p	830564	84	99	70	43d	—	—	-10	17.5	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Better in cheekpieces last time; six-week break since looks a bonus for his in-form yard
3 (12)	Ron O Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Ray Craggs	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Ray Craggs	137	—	712547	83	94	63	9d	—	—	+3	15.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Will need things to fall right from stall 12 but this four-time Tapeta winner is capable
9 (3)	Power Of Darkness Bay J:Mikkel Mortensen(7) T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Mikkel Mortensen(7) T:Charlie Fellowes	129	p	501232	75	94	83	7d	—	—	+10	22.5	1.63/1	13/2 13%
6lb better off with Al Rufaa than last Friday, which entitles him to close the gap
4 (6)	True Statesman b/br J:Richard Kingscote T:Charlie Johnston	J:Richard Kingscote T:Charlie Johnston	135	—	003-89	83	93	49	13d	—	—	+4	10	3.75/1	16 6%
Only seen twice this season, again finishing well held back from six months latest
12 (8)	Kaaranah Bay J:Harry Burns(3) T:John Butler	J:Harry Burns(3) T:John Butler	126	—	006881	72	96	83	67d	—	—	+11	17.1	3.75/1	16 6%
Winner off 6lb lower at Kempton two months ago; has to improve on previous Tapeta efforts
5 (9)	Alexander James Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	134	p	731679	80	97	61	85d	—	—	+7	12.7	3.75/1	16 6%
Solid course record but whether he's still up to winning off this mark is the question
6 (11)	Eligible Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	134	—	772519	80	93	68	160d	—	—	+13	17	6.75/1	28 4%
Nothing to suggest he's best caught fresh; has a bit to overcome over this longer trip
7 (2)	Plastic Paddy Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Michael Appleby	132	—	135030	78	93	69	13d	—	—	+7	10.6	6.75/1	28 4%
Little room for manoeuvre off this mark and again goes without headgear
8 (7)	Kalganov Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Michael Dods	J:Billy Loughnane T:Michael Dods	130	—	321107	76	94	61	13d	—	—	+13	16.3	9.75/1	40 3%
Well held on his debut for this yard latest; goes beyond 7f for the first time this year
11 (10)	Light Up Our Stars Bay J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	J:Luke Morris T:Scott Dixon	127	h	455117	73	91	66	10d	—	—	+15	18.6	8.00/1	33 3%
Needs a career-best effort at the age of seven in better company than he's used to facing
10 (1)	Cliffcake Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Roy Bowring	J:Ben Robinson T:Roy Bowring	127	—	125750	73	91	-	52d	—	—	+5	7.3	19.75/1	80 1%
In no form prior to a short break; arguably happier over 7f these days (can take a grip)

Horse	bet365	Coral
Al Rufaa	5/2	5/2
Court Of Session	9/4	9/4
Ron O	11/2	11/2
Power Of Darkness	13/2	6
True Statesman	12	16
Kaaranah	14	16
Alexander James	16	16
Eligible	28	25
Plastic Paddy	25	28
Kalganov	40	33
Light Up Our Stars	33	33
Cliffcake	80	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Al Rufaa

27.3

OR: 9.3 Form: 10 Odds: 8

5/2

2nd

Power Of Darkness

22.5

OR: 6.3 Form: 12.6 Odds: 3.6

13/2

3rd

Light Up Our Stars

18.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 12 Odds: 0.9

Court Of Session

17.5

OR: 8.5 Form: 0.6 Odds: 8.4

9/4

Kaaranah

17.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.6

Eligible

OR: 7.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 1

Kalganov

16.3

OR: 6.5 Form: 9 Odds: 0.8

Ron O

15.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Alexander James

12.7

OR: 7.5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.6

Plastic Paddy

10.6

OR: 7 Form: 2.7 Odds: 0.9

True Statesman

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Cliffcake

7.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 1 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Al Rufaa	87	101	85
Court Of Session	84	99	70
Ron O	83	94	63
True Statesman	83	93	49
Alexander James	80	97	61
Eligible	80	93	68
Plastic Paddy	78	93	69
Kalganov	76	94	61
Power Of Darkness	75	94	83
Light Up Our Stars	73	91	66
Cliffcake	73	91	—
Kaaranah	72	96	83

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Al Rufaa	7d ago	Quick return
Power Of Darkness	7d ago	Quick return
Ron O	9d ago	Quick return
Light Up Our Stars	10d ago	Quick return
True Statesman	13d ago	Quick return
Plastic Paddy	13d ago	Quick return
Kalganov	13d ago	Quick return
Court Of Session	43d ago	Fit
Cliffcake	52d ago	Fresh
Kaaranah	67d ago	Fresh
Alexander James	85d ago	Fresh
Eligible	160d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.