Marsh Commercial Novices' Handicap Chase – Ludlow

Ludlow

13:40

Marsh Commercial Novices' Handicap Chase

Date 2023-11-27

Distance 2m7f171y

Class Class 5

Going Good To Soft

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,281

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3	Justshortofabubble Bay J:Ben Jones T:Grace Harris	J:Ben Jones T:Grace Harris	162	tp	232141	94	105	83	11d	—	—	+16	33.1	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Made it 3-11 over fences when scoring at Taunton 11 days ago; respected up 7lb
5	Safe Destination Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	155	—	64-P1P	87	106	82	20d	—	—	-8	16.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won at Uttoxeter last month but he's been pulled up either side of that; risks attached
2	Gallow Ford Bay J:Gavin Sheehan T:Katy Price	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Katy Price	167	—	/4/4-4	99	103	59	20d	—	—	+2	16.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Unexposed over fences but a remote fourth at Warwick on recent comeback; down the list
7	West Orchard Bay J:Sean Bowen T:Joe Tizzard	J:Sean Bowen T:Joe Tizzard	151	t	4-F261	83	103	91	21d	—	—	0	11.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Versatile type who is unexposed over fences and he won at Plumpton latest; possibilities
1	Braganza Bay Bay J:Richard Patrick T:Henry Daly	J:Richard Patrick T:Henry Daly	168	p	01U-61	100	105	89	34d	—	—	+2	16.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won by 8l on his chase debut at Hereford and is a big player again off 7lb higher
4	On The Platform Bay J:Lee Edwards T:Belinda Clarke	J:Lee Edwards T:Belinda Clarke	155	p	2262-4	87	105	89	32d	—	—	+3	11.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
0-12 over fences but he's on a workable mark and could get involved back up in trip
6	Meechlands Magic b/br J:Harry Reed T:Debra Hamer	J:Harry Reed T:Debra Hamer	153	p	4-491U	85	102	72	41d	—	—	+2	11.3	3.75/1	16 6%
Won at Worcester last month and it wasn't his fault when he unseated last time; in the mix
9	Deadly Missile Brown J:Ben Poste T:Rosemary Gasson	J:Ben Poste T:Rosemary Gasson	144	—	524F22	76	104	90	41d	—	—	+11	17	3.25/1	14 7%
0-10 under rules but he's finished runner-up in his last two starts; each-way claims
8	Ballyrashane Bay J:Nick Scholfield T:Christian Williams	J:Nick Scholfield T:Christian Williams	149	—	16P7-0	81	-	-	32d	—	—	+3	9.5	3.75/1	16 6%
Struggled over hurdles (2m-2m4f) and he needs a transformation on his handicap/chase debut
11	Milanese Rose Grey J:Harry Kimber(3) T:Neil Mulholland	J:Harry Kimber(3) T:Neil Mulholland	142	tp	6-52P4	74	-	-	85d	—	—	+2	7.6	6.25/1	25/1 4%
0-17 overall and she needs improvement on this switch to fences
10	Voice Of Hope Brown J:Harriet Tucker(7) T:Max Young	J:Harriet Tucker(7) T:Max Young	142	tp	238-P5	74	104	30	11d	—	—	+4	6.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Overall record of 1-31 and he's struggled in both runs this season; others preferred
12	Earcomesbob Chestnut J:James Davies T:Peter Pritchard	J:James Davies T:Peter Pritchard	142	p	P4P-PP	74	98	-	19d	—	—	+5	6.3	62.50/1	250/1 0%
0-14 under rules and has been pulled up over fences in last three runs; 5lb out of weights

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Justshortofabubble	9/2	4	4	4	4
Safe Destination	3	3	7/2	3	3
Gallow Ford	11/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
West Orchard	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Braganza Bay	15/2	8	15/2	17/2	17/2
On The Platform	9	17/2	15/2	17/2	9
Meechlands Magic	14	16	16	16	16
Deadly Missile	14	11	12	12	12
Ballyrashane	14	16	16	16	16
Milanese Rose	25	22	25	25/1	25
Voice Of Hope	33	40	40	40/1	40
Earcomesbob	250/1	100	150/1	150/1	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Justshortofabubble

33.1

OR: 11 Form: 17.1 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

Deadly Missile

OR: 6.5 Form: 8.8 Odds: 1.7

3rd

Braganza Bay

16.9

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

17/2

Safe Destination

16.5

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

7/2

Gallow Ford

16.3

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 4

11/2

On The Platform

11.8

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

West Orchard

11.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Meechlands Magic

11.3

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Ballyrashane

9.5

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Milanese Rose

7.6

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

25/1

Voice Of Hope

6.6

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Earcomesbob

6.3

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

250/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Braganza Bay	100	105	89
Gallow Ford	99	103	59
Justshortofabubble	94	105	83
Safe Destination	87	106	82
On The Platform	87	105	89
Meechlands Magic	85	102	72
West Orchard	83	103	91
Ballyrashane	81	—	—
Deadly Missile	76	104	90
Milanese Rose	74	—	—
Voice Of Hope	74	104	30
Earcomesbob	74	98	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Justshortofabubble	11d ago	Quick return
Voice Of Hope	11d ago	Quick return
Earcomesbob	19d ago	Fit
Safe Destination	20d ago	Fit
Gallow Ford	20d ago	Fit
West Orchard	21d ago	Fit
On The Platform	32d ago	Fit
Ballyrashane	32d ago	Fit
Braganza Bay	34d ago	Fit
Meechlands Magic	41d ago	Fit
Deadly Missile	41d ago	Fit
Milanese Rose	85d ago	Fresh