Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (Div I)

Southwell (AW)

11:12

Date 2023-12-07

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,978

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (7)	Ledger Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Lucinda Russell	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Lucinda Russell	134	t	007012	55	69	55	30d	—	—	-6	21.7	0.47/1	15/8 35%
First and second over 1m at Newcastle; strong contender with them claiming 3lb here
1 (1)	Kodebreaker Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	135	—	543824	55	69	54	12d	—	—	-7	10.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
After a wide trip he ran a fair race behind in-form opposition at Wolverhampton
12 (2)	Marisitta Bay J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	125	—	887756	46	61	35	28d	—	—	-12	5	0.90/1	18/5 22%
1lb out of the weights but may well have more to offer on just second run for this yard
10 (11)	Warrior Square Bay J:David Egan T:T J Kent	J:David Egan T:T J Kent	126	—	000/84	46	62	53	16d	—	—	-7	2.9	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Had no excuses when a close fourth over 1m at Chelmsford but that was only his fifth run
9 (12)	Equiami Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Philip McBride	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:Philip McBride	126	—	709645	47	70	51	19d	—	—	-8	3.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
7lb lower than for win here in April and Lingfield last time represented a return to form
5 (5)	Revoquable Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	132	t	770510	52	68	43	23d	—	—	+3	9.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Poor last time but solid claims with a repeat of his previous winning form at Newcastle
3 (8)	Big Narstie b/br J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Michael Appleby	J:Christian Howarth(3) T:Michael Appleby	134	tp	560007	54	73	64	26d	—	—	-3	2.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Has a lot to prove right now having beaten just two rivals in his last five appearances
6 (6)	Tom Tulliver Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Scott Dixon	J:Phil Dennis T:Scott Dixon	130	b	254074	50	66	59	163d	—	—	-3	1	6.00/1	25 4%
Below par when last seen in June and his record after a break isn't the best
4 (10)	Maraakiz Bay J:David Nolan T:Ewan Whillans	J:David Nolan T:Ewan Whillans	133	—	0/7880	53	-	-	56d	—	—	-2	1.6	8.00/1	33 3%
Tailed off in four runs since returning from a long absence and has a lot to prove
7 (9)	Qaabil Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Tony Coyle	J:Cam Hardie T:Tony Coyle	128	—	480230	48	71	50	62d	—	—	+2	5.4	12.25/1	50 2%
Returning to further will suit but he's 1-34 overall and others appeal more
8 (3)	Beau Geste Bay J:Jack Doughty(7) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(7) T:Tony Carroll	128	—	-31306	48	68	-	304d	—	—	+4	5.5	37.25/1	150 1%
Can go well fresh and, although exposed, this mark isn't beyond him
11 (4)	Independent Beauty Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Lisa Williamson	J:Joanna Mason T:Lisa Williamson	126	—	358380	46	66	54	47d	—	—	+1	1.7	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Placed a few times but he's longstanding and inconsistent maiden; others more likely

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Ledger	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8	15/8
Kodebreaker	4	4/1	7/2	18/5	4
Marisitta	4	7/2	7/2	18/5	4
Warrior Square	7	13/2	13/2	7	7
Equiami	15/2	15/2	7	15/2	15/2
Revoquable	14	14	12	14	14
Big Narstie	14	16	16	16	16
Tom Tulliver	25	22	20	22	22
Maraakiz	33	28	28	28	33
Qaabil	50	40/1	40	40	50
Beau Geste	150	100	100	100	100
Independent Beauty	150	150/1	125	125	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ledger

21.7

OR: 1.3 Form: 12 Odds: 8.4

15/8

2nd

Kodebreaker

10.7

OR: 1.3 Form: 4.4 Odds: 5

4/1

3rd

Revoquable

9.1

OR: 0.5 Form: 7 Odds: 1.6

Beau Geste

5.5

OR: 0 Form: 5.1 Odds: 0.4

150

Qaabil

5.4

OR: 0 Form: 4.6 Odds: 0.8

Marisitta

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 5

18/5

Equiami

3.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Warrior Square

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

13/2

Big Narstie

2.4

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Independent Beauty

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Maraakiz

1.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Tom Tulliver

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ledger	55	69	55
Kodebreaker	55	69	54
Big Narstie	54	73	64
Maraakiz	53	—	—
Revoquable	52	68	43
Tom Tulliver	50	66	59
Qaabil	48	71	50
Beau Geste	48	68	—
Equiami	47	70	51
Marisitta	46	61	35
Warrior Square	46	62	53
Independent Beauty	46	66	54

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Kodebreaker	12d ago	Quick return
Warrior Square	16d ago	Fit
Equiami	19d ago	Fit
Revoquable	23d ago	Fit
Big Narstie	26d ago	Fit
Marisitta	28d ago	Fit
Ledger	30d ago	Fit
Independent Beauty	47d ago	Fresh
Maraakiz	56d ago	Fresh
Qaabil	62d ago	Fresh
Tom Tulliver	163d ago	Long break
Beau Geste	304d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.