Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

12:47

Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-12-07

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,873

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (6)	Lady In Havana Grey J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	J:Laura Pearson T:David Loughnane	135	—	857	55	58	22	45d	—	—	-11	6.5	0.75/1	4 25%
She's not obviously well treated for this nursery/stable debut but market check is advised
9 (10)	Lotting's Lass Bay J:Joanna Mason T:John Quinn	J:Joanna Mason T:John Quinn	131	—	651354	51	63	59	20d	—	—	-10	10.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
5f course winner who kept on well over that trip at Newcastle last time; on the shortlist
7 (8)	Badosa Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Archie Watson	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Archie Watson	132	—	5474	52	58	53	28d	—	—	-12	5.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Promising fourth on handicap/AW debut at Chelmsford and that form can be upgraded
10 (5)	Jungle Dance Bay J:David Egan T:John Butler	J:David Egan T:John Butler	130	—	054085	50	61	52	16d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Hasn't run badly the last twice but now 0-10 and others are more compelling
5 (1)	Pickled Pepper Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Dean Ivory	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Dean Ivory	133	—	908	53	59	8	36d	—	—	-6	3.3	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Hasn't shown much but her dam was useful; interesting on handicap debut
12 (3)	Rust E Boy Bay J:Phil Dennis T:David Evans	J:Phil Dennis T:David Evans	129	—	566898	49	60	35	16d	—	—	-6	2.1	2.25/1	10 10%
Nine-race maiden and he hasn't been shaping as though a win is imminent
4 (12)	Falmouth Boy Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Tony Carroll	J:Clifford Lee T:Tony Carroll	135	—	597	55	58	23	59d	—	—	-3	3	3.25/1	14 7%
Showed some ability on AW last time; one to consider on nursery debut
6 (11)	Calafrio Grey J:Cam Hardie T:Philip Kirby	J:Cam Hardie T:Philip Kirby	133	—	467557	53	62	52	12d	—	—	-3	2.4	5.25/1	22 5%
0-6 but has produced some fair efforts in nurseries and might not be far away
11 (9)	Mehigburn Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	129	p	685999	49	62	44	20d	—	—	-3	1.1	6.00/1	25 4%
From his eight starts he's yet to finish better than fifth; wears first-time headgear
3 (4)	Unavailable Bay J:Joey Haynes T:Chelsea Banham	J:Joey Haynes T:Chelsea Banham	135	—	7900	55	56	19	58d	—	—	-2	2.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Yard has been going well but she was well beaten at 80-1 on her nursery debut
1 (7)	Alibi Warning Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	135	—	770	55	58	6	23d	—	—	-1	2	8.00/1	33 3%
Improvement needed on nursery debut but there's potential in her pedigree; watch betting
8 (2)	Parson's Meadow Chestnut J:Andrew Mullen T:Philip Kirby	J:Andrew Mullen T:Philip Kirby	132	—	3800	52	57	-	66d	—	—	0	1.9	24.75/1	100 1%
Fair debut effort in May but has struggled since, most recently when 50-1 on nursery debut

Horse	bet365	Coral
Lady In Havana	4	4
Lotting's Lass	10/3	7/2
Badosa	9/2	4
Jungle Dance	11/2	11/2
Pickled Pepper	17/2	8
Rust E Boy	10	10
Falmouth Boy	14	12
Calafrio	22	16
Mehigburn	25	20
Unavailable	20	22
Alibi Warning	33	33
Parson's Meadow	100	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lotting's Lass

10.9

OR: 0.3 Form: 4.5 Odds: 6.2

7/2

2nd

Lady In Havana

6.5

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

3rd

Badosa

5.7

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Jungle Dance

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Pickled Pepper

3.3

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Falmouth Boy

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Unavailable

2.6

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Calafrio

2.4

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Rust E Boy

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Alibi Warning

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Parson's Meadow

1.9

OR: 0.5 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.5

100

Mehigburn

1.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lady In Havana	55	58	22
Falmouth Boy	55	58	23
Unavailable	55	56	19
Alibi Warning	55	58	6
Pickled Pepper	53	59	8
Calafrio	53	62	52
Badosa	52	58	53
Parson's Meadow	52	57	—
Lotting's Lass	51	63	59
Jungle Dance	50	61	52
Rust E Boy	49	60	35
Mehigburn	49	62	44

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Calafrio	12d ago	Quick return
Jungle Dance	16d ago	Fit
Rust E Boy	16d ago	Fit
Lotting's Lass	20d ago	Fit
Mehigburn	20d ago	Fit
Alibi Warning	23d ago	Fit
Badosa	28d ago	Fit
Pickled Pepper	36d ago	Fit
Lady In Havana	45d ago	Fit
Unavailable	58d ago	Fresh
Falmouth Boy	59d ago	Fresh
Parson's Meadow	66d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 6f16y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.